Why 2023/24 can be the best ever three-way title race

It’s finally upon us. The return of the Premier League next week officially marks the beginning of the run-in.

An uninterrupted 10-match stretch, condensed into under two months, will determine the destination of the 2023/24 Premier League title.

The title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Arsenal ARS	34	+56	77
2	Man City MCI	33	+48	76
3	Liverpool LIV	35	+41	75

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The mid-race slog is over. We can see the finish line. It’s a straight sprint from here.

And it promises to be an all-time classic. Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are separated by a single point at the top after 28 matches, a scenario that has never happened before at this stage of a season or later when the top three teams have played the same number of matches in a 38-game campaign in Premier League history.

What is certain is that there will be twists and turns. Arsenal have gone top three times already this season, losing their lead twice. Liverpool and Man City have moved into first place twice each, both times falling behind again.

There is no clear frontrunner, no obvious weak point. Nobody is expected to drop off and nobody quite looks strong enough to pull away.

But analysis of their respective fixture lists, strengths and weaknesses and previous run-ins might help us predict which of the three contenders will come out on top.

Fixtures favour Liverpool

All three teams have 10 Premier League matches remaining, and the spread is relatively even: each have five at home and five away, and roughly the same number of tough fixtures on the horizon.

Averaging the number of points of their upcoming opponents have won so far suggests that Liverpool (38.9 points) have it slightly easier than Man City (41) and Arsenal (42.3).

That difference is entirely due to Man City and Arsenal playing each other at the Etihad Stadium in the first match back, a fixture that ultimately gives Liverpool the upper hand.

Remaining fixtures MW30-38

Arguably Liverpool also edge it on fixture difficulty when analysing home and away fixtures.

All three of the title challengers perform notably better at home than away. Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat to West Ham in December is the only home defeat suffered by any of the sides across 42 matches, while the points-per-match averages show a notable drop-off in away contests.

Points & ave. points home/away

*14 matches played

So, away days are the thing to focus on – and Arsenal are the worst off here.

Mikel Arteta’s side have four difficult away matches, while Man City and Liverpool have two each.

Arsenal travel to Man City, Tottenham Hotspur (a match made more difficult by being a London derby), Brighton (who have lost only once at home this season) and Manchester United. Their only other away match is Wolverhampton Wanderers, which is hardly easy.

Man City also have Spurs and Brighton away, whereas Liverpool travel to Man Utd - a tough ground for them – and Aston Villa, who used to be impenetrable at Villa Park, but have lost three of their last four there in the league.

Liverpool’s derby day trip to Everton complicates things a little further, as does Man City’s home meeting against a Villa side who dominated them in the reverse fixture.

But on balance, Liverpool have the easiest run-in.

Their opponents have the lowest average points tallies of the three; their away matches are the simplest; and that head-to-head between Arsenal and Man City gives Jurgen Klopp’s side a further advantage.

Man City's historic run-in success is overstated

When we recall Pep Guardiola’s Man City and title run-ins, we think of them as an imperious, almost robotic force.

But that’s because 2018/19, when they won each of their final 10 Premier League matches to hold off Liverpool, looms large in the collective memory.

Zoom out a little and things aren’t so ominous for their challengers.

In the four seasons since 2018/19 (in which it should be remembered Liverpool won an incredible 28 points to Man City’s 30), Klopp’s side have actually accrued more points over the last 10 matches of the season, by 96 to 94.

Klopp in final 10 matches past four seasons

Guardiola in final 10 matches past four seasons

Adding back in that 2018/19 season brings the two coaches level on 124 points each.

However, Liverpool didn’t lose a single one of their final 10 Premier League matches in four of those five seasons, the exception being 2019/20 when the title had long been won (tellingly, Virgil van Dijk recently described the defeat to Man City in that period as “a bit of a hangover game”).

Man City’s doesn’t read quite as well, but that’s because they too lost matches (three in 2019/20 and one on the final day in 2022/23) having either already clinched the title or, at least 14 points clear, as champions elect.

But whatever the mitigating details, what’s clear is that Liverpool and Man City are equally skilled at picking up speed for the final furlong.

Arsenal’s record over the last 10 matches under Arteta is considerably worse, although last year’s run-in is the only relevant data, given that his project only came together in 2022/23.

Arteta in final 10 matches past four seasons

Winning 15 points from the final 10 matches of last season was the reason Arsenal didn’t win the title. But they have reason to believe things will be different this time around.

Arsenal’s defence should see them stay the course

Looking beyond the fixtures, there is almost nothing separating the three clubs. Each can make a strong case for this being their year.

Arsenal’s main argument is their excellent defensive record, which continues to be Arteta’s priority.

Their 19.73 Expected Goals Against (xGA) is the lowest in the Premier League by a considerable distance, while they have also conceded the fewest goals (24) and kept the most clean sheets, with 11.

It is the bedrock of Arteta’s tactical approach and the reason they top Opta’s model of "Expected Points" (xPoints).

Expected Points 23/24

This is why, with Declan Rice leading the way, Arsenal supporters can anticipate a sturdier couple of months.

The team are more experienced, less prone to error and more capable of grinding out results than this time last season.

Man City's midfield concerns gives rivals hope

But Man City still have far more experience than Arsenal, of course.

Having won five of the last six Premier League titles, Guardiola’s side are widely considered to be the favourites.

They certainly won’t be fazed by the challenges ahead.

In fact, since traditionally this is the time they ramp up, it is noteworthy that Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne haven’t been at their peak over the last month or so.

Rather than a sign of Man City weakness going into the run-in, we can see it as a strength.

Neither player is likely to be out of form for long, and if Man City can win 17 of their last 19 matches in all competitions without either player at their peak, imagine what they will be like when things click.

Guardiola’s bench isn’t as deep as it has been in recent years, however, and they do look slightly softer in midfield – and therefore more open to the counter-attack - without Ilkay Gundogan, both Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic have struggled to make an impact.

Consequently Man City xGA (up from 22.2 to 27.8) and their goals scored (down from 71 to 63) have shifted compared to this time last season.

Man City's last two seasons compared

It is only a small change, but it does at least give Arsenal and Liverpool a chance to stay close, particularly if Arteta’s side win at City.

Liverpool's injuries a concern

Klopp’s long farewell gives Liverpool an emotional energy that could carry them over the line, especially considering their ability to score late goals.

Liverpool have 22 goal involvements this season from substitutes, more than anyone else, and their 24 goals scored in the final 15 minutes is at least eight more than any other side in the Premier League.

What’s more, they have won 23 points from losing positions, again the most in the competition.

Put those stats together and it paints a picture of a team able to win late no matter the circumstances, using their deep bench and, maybe, the spirit of Klopp’s last dance to get over the line.

Of course, the counter-argument is that it won’t be sustainable over the final 10 matches, especially as nerves begin to fray.

Injuries continue to take a heavy toll (Trent Alexander-Arnold, Diogo Jota and Alisson Becker remain out until at least mid-April), while participation in the UEFA Europa League only adds to the fatigue.

Liverpool have hung on of late, winning in dramatic style with young players filling in, but even with a slight advantage on fixture difficulty, it will worry supporters.

It certainly contrasts with Man City and Arsenal, two composed and controlling sides with virtually clean bills of health once the Premier League returns.

That point of difference only adds to the possibility of high drama over the next two months; of an unforgettable finale.

Truly, anything could happen.