The Run In: Ten key questions for rest of season

Alex Keble analyses the big questions ahead of the run-in of the 2023/24 Premier League season including:

- If the title race will go down as a classic
- Whether Klopp will end on a high, Arsenal end their 20-year wait, or Guardiola wins a fourth-straight title
- If Man Utd can create tension in the Champions League race
- Brighton and West Ham's possible European challenge
- Pochettino aiming to salvage his debut season at Chelsea
- Howe attempting to retrieve Newcastle's campaign
- Luton snatching safety to remain in the top-flight
- If Glasner's revolution at Palace can get going
- Whether Burnley or Sheff Utd have any hope of staying up
- Who will win the Golden Boot, Playmaker and Golden Glove awards

Once the international break is over we enter the final furlong of the 2023/24 Premier League season with everything still to play for.

From top to bottom, nothing is certain. Three clubs are vying for the title, at least six clubs are in the relegation battle, and teams as low as 13th could still qualify for Europe.

Here are 10 big questions for the final two months of the season.

Will the three-horse title race produce a Premier League classic?

Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are separated by only one point with 10 matches left to play.

Never before in a 38-game Premier League campaign have we had a three-horse race as tight this deep into the season having played the same number of matches.

Title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Arsenal ARS	34	+56	77
2	Man City MCI	33	+48	76
3	Liverpool LIV	35	+41	75

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Arsenal’s defensive resilience means they are unlikely to fall away like they did last season; Man City’s experience tells us they will keep going; and Liverpool are riding an emotional wave as they seek to end the Jurgen Klopp era on a high.

What’s more, analysis of the remaining fixtures suggests the three clubs have a similarly challenging run-in, with tough away trips awaiting each of them.

It should ensure a thrilling finale. In the final two months, we will be treated to:
Spurs v Arsenal
Man Utd v Arsenal
Arsenal v Chelsea
Liverpool v Spurs
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Everton v Liverpool
Spurs v Man City 
Brighton v Man City

There are plenty of opportunities for some unforgettable moments.

Will it be a perfect Klopp farewell, an end to a 20-year wait for Arsenal, or four-on-the-trot for Pep?

However the next 10 rounds go, and however close the final battle becomes, we are guaranteed an iconic ending.

Should Man City triumph, they will become the first team in the history of English football to win the title in four consecutive seasons, becoming the greatest English club team ever.

It would also make it six titles out of seven for Man City, an unprecedented achievement that might leave Pep Guardiola with no more mountains to conquer, especially if City manage the unthinkable: a double treble.

Liverpool lifting the trophy would be the perfect ending for Klopp, whose contribution to the Premier League over the last eight years deserves a second title.

And were he to win it, the scenes in Liverpool would be like nothing the Premier League has seen before. Their 2020 title was won behind closed doors. This one would spark wild celebrations.

It would mean just as much to Arsenal fans, of course. This year marks the 20th anniversary of their last Premier League title under Arsene Wenger.

To win it with this young team, and for Mikel Arteta to beat both Klopp and Guardiola at the peak of their powers, would be an extraordinary achievement.

There is no version of the trophy lift in May that isn’t legendary in its own way.

Can Man Utd create tension in the UEFA Champions League race?

Opta’s prediction model of the UEFA coefficient rankings gives England an 82.5 per cent chance of getting one of the two extra Champions League spots for next season, meaning fifth place would automatically qualify.

The fight with Germany is not yet over – and West Ham United drawing Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League complicates things – but it’s looking good for both Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa as things stand.

For there to be tension in the battle for Champions League football, Manchester United’s 4-3 victory over Liverpool in the FA Cup needs to be the catalyst for a surge into the top five.

Spurs' form since October hasn’t been particularly good. They rank ninth in the table since 30 October, winning 27 points from 18 matches, fewer than AFC Bournemouth, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Man Utd.

Top 10 since 30 October

Perhaps, then, Erik ten Hag's side could close their six-point gap to Spurs or their nine-point gap to Villa, over whom United have a match in hand.

Villa are beginning to look a little fatigued as their UEFA Europa Conference League run continues, and after losing three of their last four league matches at Villa Park they could yet be vulnerable to a Man Utd resurgence.

Will a surprise package challenge Brighton and West Ham for Europe?

The race for Europe is remarkably open, especially if eighth becomes a Europa Conference League spot.

Brighton & Hove Albion’s form has stabilised recently and their Europa League elimination suggests they can hold onto a top-eight position, while West Ham, unbeaten in four and thriving since Lucas Paqueta’s return, also remain favourites to qualify once again for Europe.

But there is plenty of time for things to change – and just seven points separates eighth-placed Brighton from Bournemouth in 13th.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
7	Newcastle NEW	34	+19	53
8	West Ham WHU	35	-9	49
9	Chelsea CHE	32	+4	47
10	Wolves WOL	35	-7	46
11	Bournemouth BOU	34	-11	45
12	Brighton BHA	33	-2	44
13	Fulham FUL	35	-4	43

It would take a lot for Andoni Iraola’s side to overtake so many above them, but Fulham – with four wins in six matches thanks to Rodrigo Muniz’s form – stand an outside chance of rising into Europe.

However, they only have four matches left at Craven Cottage and those include Newcastle United, Liverpool, and Man City, which is comforting to Brighton and West Ham.

Elsewhere Wolves have won four of their last six contests and, on 41 points, are just six points behind Man Utd in sixth.

There is no reason why they can’t keep this run going and qualify for Europe, unless Newcastle or Chelsea get themselves together.

Can Pochettino get his Chelsea tenure up and running?

There is still time for Mauricio Pochettino to save his debut season at Stamford Bridge.

Throughout 2023/24 Chelsea have been more tactically coherent than results suggest, and indeed before last weekend, Opta’s "expected points" table had them in fifth spot.

Top 10 based on expected points before Matchweek 29

That’s not how many Chelsea supporters see things, however, which is why the next two months are a sliding doors moment for Pochettino.

Chelsea will rise to eighth if they win their match in hand, suddenly putting them in the race to finish in a Europa League position, while the FA Cup also provides an opportunity to make amends.

Win that competition and finish sixth and Chelsea’s season will look very different. Go out in the semi-final and finish outside the top 10 and Pochettino will have overseen a poor season.

Can Howe save Newcastle’s season?

Things aren’t as precarious for Newcastle, but Eddie Howe’s side are at a crossroads.

Winning four points from their last four Premier League matches has left them in 10th and in danger of dropping into the bottom half of the table.

Like Chelsea, their final 10 matches will shape opinion; Newcastle could still get into the Europa League, yet they could also finish all the way down in 13th.

The latter, for a club with ambitious owners who qualified for the Champions League last season, won’t be considered good enough.

Will late-show Luton snatch safety?

Ten years ago, Luton Town were playing non-league football. Their rise to the top tier has been extraordinary, and as such, few pundits gave Rob Edwards’ side any chance of staying up this season.

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Luton retaining their top-flight status would be one of the stories of the season, and yet it is looking increasingly likely as we approach the run-in.

They simply don’t lie down. Only Liverpool, with 24, have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches than Luton’s 16, and although they have only won five Premier League matches, 11 of their 17 defeats have been by a single goal.

Kenilworth Road, an intimidating stadium, remains an uncomfortable place for visiting teams and Luton supporters will look forward to upcoming home fixtures against Bournemouth, Brentford, Everton and Fulham.

All four are winnable. Luton could pull off an incredible feat.

Luton Town

Sat 06 Apr
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2 - 1 W

Sat 20 Apr
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1 - 5 L

20:00 Fri 03 May EVE (H) 16:00 Sun 19 May FUL (H)

Will Glasner’s Palace revolution catch fire?

It has been a slow start for Crystal Palace’s new manager, but an eight-point gap to 18th gives Oliver Glasner a healthy cushion that should allow his players to fearlessly embrace their new tactical instructions.

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Palace are arguably the only Premier League team with nothing to play for – no threat of relegation, no shot at Europe - over the final set of matches, and yet Glasner’s arrival means even the Eagles are an interesting watch.

One month into the job, Glasner has already proven his tactical versatility, playing a dominant possession game in the 3-0 victory over Burnley and sitting ultra-deep in a 3-1 defeat to Spurs.

We can expect more of the same from a reactive coach who does not stick to one system. His 3-4-2-1 formation is a given, but everything else is up for debate.

Over the next couple of months we will find out how adventurous Glasner believes he can be with the players at his disposal.

Is there hope for Burnley or Sheff Utd?

It is difficult to make a case for Sheffield United, eight points short of Luton in 17th and with four of the "Big Six" still to play in their final 10 matches.

The lowest points tally in Premier League history that did not lead to relegation was 34, won by West Bromwich Albion in 2004/05, and Chris Wilder’s side would need to win 20 points from 10 – or 2.0 per match, which is top-four form – just to get to that number.

Burnley have a slightly higher chance. Their win against Brentford last weekend puts them just five short of Luton and Vincent Kompany’s side still have Everton (A), Sheff Utd (A) and Nottingham Forest (H) to play.

But win all three and Burnley will still only have 26 points. They need a miracle.

Who will win Golden Boot, Playmaker, and Golden Glove awards?

All three individual awards are still very much up for grabs.

The Castrol Golden Boot is likely to go to the current leader Erling Haaland, who stays at the summit despite a slow period by his standards, having only scored twice in his last five matches.

He will surely ramp up again over the final 10 matches, keeping him ahead of Ollie Watkins and Dominic Solanke. Although if Liverpool surge to the title, it wouldn’t be surprising if Mohamed Salah caught Haaland.

Race for the Castrol Golden Boot

Any of the top 18 players in the assist chart could conceivably win the Castrol Playmaker award, and the nature of assist-creating makes it impossible to predict.

Simple two-yard passes that set up screamers and brilliant moments of creativity count equal, meaning there is time for anyone to move out in front.

James Maddison and Phil Foden (both on seven) in particular would back themselves to make up the three-assist gap to the leaders, but the consistency of Watkins throughout the season makes him the front-runner, despite being tied on 10 with Brighton's Pascal Gross and Newcastle's Kieran Trippier.

Race for the Castrol Playmaker award

The Castrol Golden Glove is also closely fought, although David Raya’s lead at the top looks safe considering Arsenal’s brilliant defensive record.

They have conceded the fewest goals in the league, with 24, and their Expected Goals (xG) allowed of 19.73 is a remarkable 8.08 lower than the 27.81 of Man City, then next best team.

Race for the Castrol Golden Glove