Alex Keble analyses where the upcoming fixtures in Matchweek 36 could be won and lost including:
- How Wolves can disrupt Man City's title challenge
- Why Arsenal should be wary of Bournemouth's direct approach
- Whether Brighton can rediscover form at Villa
- If Sheff Utd can finish with a flourish against Forest
- Glasner's fluid attack can hurt Man Utd
- Muniz could join elite goalscoring club
- Can Burnley's safety hopes be boosted?
- If West Ham can stop sliding into mid-table
- Whether Spurs will pile on Anfield anguish
Can Wolves repeat Molineux victory without Pedro Neto?
Arsenal’s 3-2 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend might have ended nervously but getting over the line was more important than how they got there. Arsenal fans are starting to believe that this is their season.
“If we draw a game, we're not going to win the Premier League,” was Pep Guardiola’s analysis, reflecting the widespread belief that Arsenal won’t slip up from here.
The pressure is on, then. And Manchester City’s remaining fixtures aren’t especially easy, not least the first of their final four matches on Saturday evening.
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Wolverhampton Wanderers beat Man City 2-1 at Molineux back in September with a classic counter-attacking performance that focused on hitting Guardiola’s side with fast breaks down both flanks.
Incidentally, that’s exactly what Nottingham Forest did last weekend, when only a couple of glaring misses from Chris Wood prevented them from taking at least a point.
Nott'm Forest accrued 1.93 Expected Goals (xG) to City’s 0.87. If Wolves can record a similar xG with a reflective tactical approach, you would back Gary O’Neil’s side to put their chances away.
Matheus Cunha has been out for a long time with injuries but is back firing now, scoring two goals and assisting another in his last two Premier League encounters.
Cunha and Hwang Hee-chan, who scored in the victory over Luton Town last weekend, will be a serious threat on the counter-attack.
However, in the reverse fixture it was Pedro Neto (now injured) who led the way for Wolves, while Man City fell predominantly because of Rodri’s absence. Guardiola’s side are still favourites - but Wolves have what it takes to cause an upset.
Can Arsenal’s defence avoid wobble against deceptively tough opponents?
Belief among the Arsenal players is sky-high. They have won 13 of their 15 Premier League matches in 2024, only dropping points against teams in the current top four.
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However, Arsenal have conceded four goals in their last four league encounters, as many as in their previous 11 contests, and if you add in the brief defensive collapse in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League tie against Bayern Munich, you get a slightly different picture.
Few teams are better set up to capitalise on any wobbly behaviour at the back than AFC Bournemouth who, since their first win of the season in late October, have won 45 points from 26 matches with fast, direct, transition-based football.
They have attempted the most take-ons in the division, with 808. They are top six for passes per defensive action (PPDA), with 10.8, and high turnovers, with 315. And by looking at Opta's graphic below, they are right at the sharp end for "direct speed" and "passes per sequence", making them the league’s fastest and most direct team.
Arsenal will expect to control possession and territory at Emirates Stadium, and certainly won’t be as cautious against the high press as they were at Spurs, whose pressing game was bypassed with long goal-kicks.
If Arsenal aren’t careful, Bournemouth could provide a shock twist.
Will Villa reassert their Thursday-Sunday superiority?
Aston Villa have an excellent Premier League record after playing Thursday night European football, winning 24 points from 12 matches so far (W7, D3). Unai Emery has clearly mastered the Thursday-Sunday schedule.
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Brighton & Hove Albion, not so much. Since their first UEFA Europa League match in September, Roberto De Zerbi’s side have picked up only 32 points from 29 matches (W7, D11), and now sit 12th in the table.
At the beginning of the season nobody would have expected quite such a sharp contrast between the two teams, and the gap – 23 points – is getting worse over time.
Brighton have lost their last two Premier League matches by an aggregate of 7-0 and have scored a mere three goals in their last seven matches in all competitions, while Villa – and in particular Ollie Watkins – are at their free-scoring best.
Watkins has scored six goals in his four Premier League appearances against Brighton, including a hat-trick in a 6-1 win for Villa in the reverse fixture, and he has been involved in eight goals in his last five Premier League away matches - scoring six and assisting two.
All the signs point to an away win that would put Villa within touching distance of UEFA Champions League qualification.
Will Sheff Utd benefit from a post-relegation bounce?
Knowing that they are set to be relegated, Sheffield United’s players might feel a strange sense of relief. That does tend to happen.
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Back in 2015/16, when Villa had eight points at the halfway stage and were down long before their fate was confirmed in mid-April, Joleon Lescott infuriated supporters when he described the feeling of going down as a “weight off the shoulders”.
But his comments were misinterpreted. He was right. There is something freeing about the sword finally falling.
Relegated sides have avoided defeat in their first match after their relegation was confirmed on four of the last seven occasions (W3 D1), and indeed it happened to Sheff Utd last time they went down in 2020/21, when they beat Brighton 1-0 immediately after.
Chris Wilder will be hoping for a similar reaction. Ending the season on a high could do wonders for their confidence ahead of a promotion push next year.
Will Man Utd’s open midfield invite Olise & Mateta pressure?
Manchester United’s 1-1 draw with Burnley wasn’t just typical of Erik ten Hag’s second season, it was practically a caricature.
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The visitors poured forward through midfield seemingly at will, exposing enormous holes in the middle of the pitch and counter-attacking at walking pace, or at least that’s how it felt.
Burnley managed 39 progressive carries of the ball, the joint-most of any team against Man Utd this season – which is saying something. United have allowed 788 progressive carries in total, the third-most in the division behind Sheff Utd and West Ham United.
Crystal Palace have become highly effective at breaking quickly under Oliver Glasner, with particular focus on the middle of the pitch, where two inside forwards – Michael Olise and Jordan Ayew – are parked behind Jean-Phillipe Mateta in a narrow 3-4-2-1.
With Palace swarming the middle column, and Casemiro looking overworked here, Palace should get plenty of chances in midfield following a transition. They’re likely to put them away, too.
Olise has scored four goals and assisted seven in his last eight home league starts while Mateta has scored seven goals in five matches at Selhurst Park under Glasner.
Can Muniz capitalise on Brentford weakness to reach double figures?
Only three players in Fulham’s history have hit double figures for Premier League goals in their debut season: Andrew Cole (12 in 2004/05), Dimitar Berbatov (15 in 2012/13), and Aleksandar Mitrovic (11 in 2018/19).
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It’s a prestigious list that Rodrigo Muniz will join if he scores one more goal in the final three matches, and facing Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium is perhaps his best chance to do so.
That’s because Brentford have conceded the most headed goals in the Premier League this season (19), accounting for a league-high 32 per cent of their total, while Muniz ranks sixth in the Premier League for most headed shots, with 24.
His record there probably has something to do with Fulham’s crossing ability - they have attempted 684, the fourth-most in the Premier League, and have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area (89).
It’s obvious what Brentford need to be working on this week.
Can Burnley take advantage of Newcastle’s poor away form?
So agonisingly close. That’s the story of Burnley’s season. Wilson Odobert was through on goal, albeit at a tight angle, with the clock on 95 minutes at Old Trafford last weekend but he couldn’t find the winner, leaving Burnley with yet another draw; five in their last eight.
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If Burnley are to be within two points of Nott'm Forest when they host them on the final day they surely need to beat Newcastle United on Saturday. Another draw won’t do, not with Spurs away the week after.
With four wins in the last six Newcastle are hardly the ideal opponent, and yet their away record can give Burnley some comfort.
Eddie Howe’s side have lost eight of their last 11 Premier League away matches, while only 14 of their 53 points, or 26 per cent, have come in on the road, the lowest percentage of any side in the division.
Burnley need to go one step further this time.
Can West Ham do anything to avoid dropping into the bottom half?
It’s been a tricky end to the season for David Moyes.
Defeat in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League and faltering form domestically means West Ham have won one of their last nine matches in all competitions, leaving them on the precipice of consecutive bottom-half finishes.
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They are three points above Wolves in 11th at the moment, but defeat at Stamford Bridge would put Wolves and Bournemouth in a strong position to overtake them considering the Hammers have Luton – fighting for their top-flight safety - and Man City in their final two matches.
Moyes has never won an away Premier League match against Chelsea in 18 attempts (D7 L11), and the form guide suggests that isn’t about to change. It looks like West Ham’s season will end with a whimper.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
37 | +21 | 57 |
| 8 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
37 | -3 | 57 |
| 9 |
West Ham
WHU
|
37 | -12 | 52 |
| 10 |
Brighton
BHA
|
37 | -5 | 48 |
| 11 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
37 | -12 | 48 |
Can Liverpool restore pride and avoid awkward fight for third?
As Spurs hunt down Villa for fourth, Liverpool could end up in an unexpected and unwanted battle with the same club.
If Ange Postecoglou's side win at Anfield this weekend then Liverpool will have won only one of their last six Premier League matches. Jurgen Klopp won’t want his ending to be sullied like that – and yet there is more on the line than pride.
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Should Villa beat Brighton on Sunday and Liverpool lose, Villa would be five points off third place ahead of the Reds' trip to Villa Park next weekend.
The thought of finishing fourth, after so recently being in a three-horse title race, doesn’t bear thinking about.
A point would seal third. Three would lift Liverpool's spirits significantly and help to ensure their new manager doesn’t walk into a gloomy dressing room.