Alex Keble analyses where the upcoming fixtures in Matchweek 30 could be won and lost.
Can Havertz help Arsenal take a giant stride in title race?
Arsenal’s 1-0 victory over Manchester City in October was a tense and cautious match that built upon lessons learnt from the previous head-to-heads between the two sides.
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Both Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta had been caught out before, the former by Arsenal’s aggressive man-to-man press and the latter by a clever 4-2-4 that solved Arteta’s confrontational approach.
It has meant Guardiola and Arteta holding back a little; both aware hard pressing and commitment to fast and direct football leaves them vulnerable. The fact that players will be slightly rusty after an international break only adds to the sense it will be a reserved 90 minutes.
This probably favours Arsenal, given that Man City are unbeaten in their last 25 home league matches. Anything that slows them down is good news for Arteta.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
34 | +56 | 77 |
| 2 |
Man City
MCI
|
33 | +48 | 76 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
34 | +41 | 74 |
As is the form of Kai Havertz, who has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances. He is excelling as a "false nine", while adding an extra player into midfield could give the visitors an advantage in the all-important battle around Rodri.
Certainly this is how Liverpool dominated in the second 45 during their 1-1 draw with Man City, pinning the visitors back until John Stones, forced to move back into defence, left Rodri with too much to do.
Should Havertz lead Arsenal to their first double over Man City since 2007/08 - and first over reigning champions since 2001/02 - it would make them title favourites.
Ending City’s unbeaten home record and pulling four points clear with nine matches to go would leave Guardiola on the back foot – a position he is not used to being in – before they host Aston Villa three days later.
How will Forest react to falling into the bottom three?
For the very first time this season, Nottingham Forest are in the bottom three. The gravity of their situation is not lost on anybody at the City Ground.
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How they react is crucial, especially as they enter a run of home fixtures that finally gives Nuno Espirito Santo the chance to put some form together.
Four of their last five home matches have been against last season’s top four. The other, a 2-0 win against West Ham United, was the only occasion Forest claimed three points.
The visit of Crystal Palace – winless in eight on the road – is a real opportunity for the hosts, and one they cannot afford to pass up. They need some momentum ahead of Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers in their next two at home.
Self-belief is everything here. Palace have conceded a competition-high 14 goals in the last five minutes of matches this season, and have done so in each of their last two.
Forest, then, can steal points if the crowd is up and the players are galvanised by their sudden drop into the bottom three.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
Brentford
BRE
|
34 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |
Everton
EVE
|
34 | -12 | 33 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
34 | -18 | 26 |
| 18 |
Luton
LUT
|
34 | -28 | 25 |
| 19 |
Burnley
BUR
|
34 | -32 | 23 |
| 20 |
Sheffield Utd
SHU
|
34 | -59 | 16 |
Will De Zerbi’s expansive football walk into Liverpool’s trap?
Historically this has not been an easy fixture for Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool have won only one of their last eight matches against Brighton & Hove Albion across all competitions and have failed beat them in any of their last three encounters at Anfield.
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Brighton have, however, been inconsistent with three wins from their last nine Premier League matches. Indeed, since a 3-1 victory at Manchester United on 16 September, the Seagulls have won only two further away matches, at Forest and Sheffield United.
Roberto De Zerbi’s ever-adventurous, ever-expansive football looks vulnerable to the fast pace of Liverpool’s attacking line, which is back to full strength after the international break.
De Zerbi’s only other visit to Anfield was his debut, a wild 3-3 draw in which hosts Liverpool out-shot Brighton by 15-6.
With the surprise factor now gone, it seems unlikely Brighton will be quite so destructive going forward – and an open end-to-end match always seems to favour Liverpool these days.
Can O’Neil tactics extend Wolves’ excellent record at Villa?
This is never an easy derby for Aston Villa. They are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with Wolves, last beating them in December 2020 under Dean Smith, while Wolves haven’t lost any of their previous seven Premier League matches at Villa Park, a record that stretches back to December 2003.
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This pattern looks set to continue, if the form guide is anything to go by.
Villa have lost three of their last four Premier League matches at Villa Park, as many as in Unai Emery’s first 23 at the club, leaving Villa with fewer home points in 2024 (three) than every other top-flight team bar Sheff Utd (one).
Meanwhile Wolves are on fire, having claimed 22 points from their 11 matches since Christmas Eve. Only Man City (29), Liverpool (25) and Arsenal (24) have collected more.
And Wolves have won three of their last five against sides starting the day in the top five positions, thanks to Gary O’Neil’s tactical preference for playing on the counter-attack from a hunched position.
Gifting Villa the ball but looking to break quickly behind Emery’s high line, Wolves will be allowed to play in their favoured style. Much depends on whether Villa have used the international break to rest and recuperate.
Can Spurs pick up form before tough season close?
Nobody saw Tottenham Hotspur's 3-0 defeat to Fulham coming. It was a shock to the system, and yet zooming out a little we see it formed part of a wider pattern, even if two defeats in their last four is as many as in their previous 11 matches.
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Taking the league table from 30 October, Spurs are all the way down in ninth, winning 27 points from their last 18 matches.
That isn’t necessarily anything to worry about, but it might be should Spurs drop points at home to Luton Town on Saturday, a slip-up that would allow Manchester United back into the race for a top-five finish.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
34 | +21 | 66 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
32 | +16 | 60 |
| 6 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
33 | +1 | 53 |
Luton, without a win in eight, are easy opponents in theory. They have conceded a division-high nine goals from high turnovers, suggesting Spurs' usual gung-ho approach – they top the charts for high turnovers, with 300 – will be enough to win.
Nevertheless the pressure is on. Spurs still have Newcastle United (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (H), and Liverpool (A) to play from mid-April onwards. They need to rack up wins before then.
Could Frank revive Brentford with another famous win?
Brentford need something special to save their season. Since a three-match winning streak that ended in November, they have won only three of 18 in the Premier League, and only the bottom two - Burnley and Sheff Utd - have lost more matches than Thomas Frank’s side.
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They are still five points clear of the relegation zone, but with Manchester United, Brighton, and Villa in their next three Brentford could be in the bottom three by the time they enter a crucial three-match run against Sheff Utd, Luton, and Everton.
So, Brentford have to snatch points from somewhere before then, and they won’t get a better chance to lift spirits than the visit of United, who were beaten 4-0 on this ground last season.
If they can channel the spirit of that famous win, perhaps Brentford’s players will rediscover their verve - and perhaps the old steeliness will return.
Can Fulham capitalise on chance to enter the top 10?
Fulham have won four of their last six Premier League matches, surging towards the top 10 in the process, and if they are to uphold a surprise challenge for Europe they simply have to win matches like these.
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The Blades last beat a non-promoted Premier League side on 9 December. Almost implausibly, they have conceded at least five goals (21 in total) in each of their last four home matches in all competitions.
Clearly Chris Wilder’s side - with the leakiest defence in the Premier League, having conceded 74 goals - are there for the taking, and vulnerable to the form Rodrigo Muniz.
A brace against Spurs in Fulham’s impressive 3-0 win before the international break took Muniz to seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, the most of any player since the start of February.
If he picks up where he left off, Fulham could end the weekend as high as ninth in the table.
Does Fofana absence give Chelsea an easy match?
Quietly in the background Chelsea are piecing themselves back together.
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Mauricio Pochettino’s side have only lost one of their last eight matches in all competitions and, through to the FA Cup semi-finals, are building momentum as they slowly climb up the table.
They’ve won five of their last six Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, too, which stands them in good stead for the visit of struggling Burnley.
Chelsea beat Luton 3-0 and Sheff Utd 2-0 in their other home encounters against promoted sides this season, suggesting they will have no problem dispatching of Burnley, especially with Nicolas Jackson beginning to put his chances away.
Jackson has scored or assisted in six of his last eight appearances in all competitions for Chelsea.
That’s an even better record than David Datro Fofana, whose five Premier League goal involvements in eight for Burnley have been a much-needed boost for Vincent Kompany.
But not for this one. Fofana is a Chelsea player, meaning he is ineligible to play for his parent club on Saturday. With that, Burnley’s chances of causing an upset seem even more unlikely.
Can home form boost Newcastle’s European hopes?
Eddie Howe is relying on home form to save his team’s season and turn mid-table obscurity into UEFA Europa League qualification.
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Newcastle are four points behind West Ham in seventh. They have won just one of their last four Premier League matches, while the visitors are unbeaten in four. This is a big one.
Newcastle have picked up 73 per cent of their points at home (29/40), the second-highest ratio in the division, and are one of only three teams – along with Man City and Spurs – to have scored in all of their home league matches thus far.
There’s no reason that record won’t continue. West Ham have gone nine matches without a Premier League clean sheet, which is good news for Alexander Isak, who has scored in five of his last seven Premier League appearances.
Newcastle fans have cause for optimism then, but if they were to lose to West Ham, the gap to the top seven would open to seven points. It’s a must-win fixture for Howe.
Can Everton finally end their winless run?
Everton are currently on an 11-match winless run in the Premier League, which is not only the longest sequence among current sides in the competition, but one short of the Toffees’ record of 12 between August and October 1994.
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It gets worse. Sean Dyche’s side have scored just a single goal in their last five away matches from 65 shots and have an Expected Goals (xG) of 4.8.
They need their luck to turn – but thankfully there have been some signs of progress recently.
Beto’s well-taken effort in the 3-1 defeat against West Ham might stimulate a run of goals, at long last, while Everton out-played Man Utd for long periods in their 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford a fortnight ago.
If they play like that at AFC Bournemouth, Everton can finally get three points on the board.
