Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 33.
Player analysis - Bruno Guimaraes (Newcastle)
Newcastle United have lurched from one injury crisis to the next throughout a challenging 2023/24 campaign, but head coach Eddie Howe will at least be grateful that Guimaraes has remained fit and available.
The Brazil international is like two players rolled into one for the Magpies.
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He is essentially a specialist holding midfielder out of possession, scurrying around looking to break up play as a sitting midfielder in a three-man unit.
But once Newcastle have the ball, Guimaraes transforms into an attacking box-to-box player who offers drive, creativity, goals and assists.
He is seemingly everywhere on the pitch, so it is little wonder there is only one top-flight player, West Ham United's James Ward-Prowse, who has covered more distance this season.
Top distance covered 2023/24
| Player | Distance (km) |
|---|---|
| James Ward-Prowse | 347 |
| Bruno Guimaraes | 343 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 339 |
| Pascal Gross | 335 |
| Tomas Soucek | 332 |
Guimaraes's touch and heat maps, as shown below, highlight his mobility and importance to the Newcastle side.
He offers plenty in all three thirds of the pitch and is sure to be heavily involved in Saturday’s home match against Tottenham Hotspur.
Creative influence
In Newcastle's last outing, a 1-0 win at Fulham, Guimaraes created a match-high four chances.
It was the seventh time he had reached that tally of key passes in a Premier League match - a terrific effort for a player who spends so much of each contest behind the ball inside his own half.
Stylistically and from a tactical perspective, Guimaraes sits alongside Rodri, Declan Rice and Alexis Mac Allister in a group of the most elite all-round central midfielders in the country.
Of those players, who share similar defensive responsibilities, it is the Newcastle star who creates the most chances in open play.
Chances created in open play per 90
| Player | Chances created in open play/90 |
|---|---|
| Bruno Guimaraes | 1.64 |
| Rodri | 1.46 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 1.25 |
| Declan Rice | 0.73 |
Five assists in 30 league matches this season do not do justice to Guimaraes' contribution.
This pass matrix below from his performance at Fulham last weekend shows how he regularly picked out team-mate Alexander Isak.
Guimaraes found the Swedish striker more than he did any other Newcastle player, so Spurs will need to try and shield the service into Isak.
Among the best ball-winners
One of Guimaraes’ strongest features is his willingness to do the "dirty work".
He is always on the move looking to get involved in duels, and in that sense Guimaraes is one of the most effective midfielders around.
Playing for a side who have to do more defending than the top three clubs - Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City - his work off the ball is comparable to their top-class holding midfielders.
Guimaraes v top three sides' midfielders
| Duels won/90 | Possession won/90 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 7.71 | Rodri | 7.29 |
| Mac Allister | 6.51 | Mac Allister | 6.98 |
| Rodri | 6.43 | Guimaraes | 6.28 |
| Rice | 4.29 | Rice | 4.98 |
Howe will be grateful he has an individual who can multitask this well.
Ahead of this match he can ask Guimaraes to shackle James Maddison, prompt from deep AND offer a goal threat of his own.
His strike at Fulham last weekend summed up the value he supplies.
Initially Guimaraes received the ball just in front of the back four, before piercing the lines with an accurate forward pass.
Rather than standing still, the Brazilian continued with a forward run as the move progressed, and as soon as the ball came back to him, he was in the right place to unleash an unerring right-footed finish.
Weak area for Spurs?
The form of Spurs' central midfielders has been patchy in recent weeks, with substitutes Rodrigo Bentancur and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg coming on in the second half to help them beat Nottingham Forest last weekend.
Regular starters Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr have been below par and, when you compare their output across this campaign with that of Guimaraes, it is clear how impactful the Newcastle star has been.
Whichever two Spurs players start in central midfield this weekend, they can ill-afford to be sluggish in their duel with Guimaraes.
The Magpies talisman may have to temper his aggression a little as he is one yellow card away from a two-match ban, but this is still a contest he has the ability to influence greatly.