The penultimate Gameweek of 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League may well make or break many managers' chances of mini-league glory.
Six sides are playing twice - Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur - with a host of Fantasy big-hitters involved.
The Scout is here to help, assessing the best midfield options for managers who have not yet maxed out their allocation of three players from each of the Double Gameweek 37 (DGW37) clubs, according to both form and the underlying statistics.
Who's in the best form?
Cole Palmer (£6.2m) heads into DGW37 as the top-scoring midfielder in Fantasy over the last four Gameweeks.
The Chelsea star has 42 points in that run, scoring five goals and supplying an assist over his four outings.
Palmer’s team-mates Noni Madueke (£5.3m) and Conor Gallagher (£5.4m) both scored twice across their five matches, with the former edging it by two assists to one.
Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) is Palmer’s closest rival among the DGW37 contingent, earning 37 points. Man Utd’s playmaker delivered four goals and an assist in his three appearances, with his average of 12.3 points per match (ppm) the best in the analysis.
Anthony Gordon (£6.4m) is one of three Newcastle players to produce 20+ points in this period. The winger was involved in six goals, scoring one and assisting a further five to collect 34 points.
Man City duo Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) and Phil Foden (£8.4m) also catch the eye.
The Belgian collected 24 points in his four appearances, thanks to one goal and two assists. Foden, meanwhile, scored twice and supplied an assist in his two outings. His average of 10.5ppm was identical to that of Palmer.
Top-scoring DGW37 midfielders, last four Gameweeks
| Player | Pts | G | A | CS | Bonus | Pts/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 42 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10.5 |
| Fernandes | 37 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12.3 |
| Gordon | 34 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 8.5 |
| Madueke | 33 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6.6 |
| Gallagher | 28 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5.6 |
| Guimaraes | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6.3 |
| De Bruyne | 24 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6.0 |
| Foden | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10.5 |
| Murphy | 20 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5.0 |
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Who's most likely to score?
The underlying statistics only enhance Palmer's prospects. His totals of 20 shots, six big chances and nine shots on target are all more than any other DGW37 midfielder across his previous four matches.
Man Utd duo Alejandro Garnacho (£5.0m) and Antony (£6.8m) both make an appearance alongside their team-mate Fernandes.
Garnacho's 14 shots in the box earn him first place in the assessment, while Antony and Fernandes' eight shots on target sit joint-second behind Palmer.
De Bruyne, meanwhile, places joint-second for shots in the table below, with the Belgian also mirroring the seven shots in the box and six shots on target of Foden for Man City.
Brighton pair Julio Enciso and Simon Adingra (both £5.0m) have boasted plenty of threat in the budget bracket. Enciso's 14.3 minutes per shot is faster than any other player in the analysis, while Adingra's seven shots on target are bettered by only three rivals here.
Somewhat surprisingly, there are no Newcastle or Spurs players in the table below.
Gordon and Guimaraes lead the way for the Magpies on seven shots, with both recording three shots in the box.
For Spurs, James Maddison's (£7.8m) eight shots are top, with Son Heung-min (£9.9m) managing a mere four shots - all inside the box - in that run.
Goal threat, last four matches
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Mins/shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 20 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 17.2 |
| Garnacho | 14 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 22.5 |
| De Bruyne | 14 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22.7 |
| Fernandes | 13 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27.7 |
| Madueke | 12 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27.6 |
| Antony | 12 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19.7 |
| Foden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26.3 |
| Enciso | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14.3 |
| Doku | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16.7 |
| Adingra | 10 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27.5 |
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Who's most likely to get an assist?
Fernandes' numbers again underline why he could be a major differential if he's fit for Man Utd's DGW37.
The Portuguese has made more key passes and created more big chances than any of his rivals, with his 19 minutes per key pass also the quickest on show.
Gordon is his closest rival on 16 key passes, with the Newcastle star's share of dead-ball duties a big factor - he's taken 27 corners in his previous four outings, placing him top here.
Madueke also catches the eye. The Chelsea winger is the only player in the analysis devoid of any set-piece duties, yet he still made 12 key passes - placing him third in the table below.
For Man City, De Bruyne has the advantage over his team-mate Foden for both key passes, by 11 to nine, and for big chances created, by four to one.
Son, meanwhile, was Spurs' top creator, with eight key passes. However, it's worth noting that none of those were big chances, while his average of 41 minutes per key pass is the slowest in the assessment.
Creativity, last four matches
| Player | Key passes | Big chances created | Corners | Mins/key pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernandes | 19 | 6 | 21 | 19 |
| Gordon | 16 | 2 | 27 | 22 |
| Madueke | 12 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| De Bruyne | 11 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| Murphy | 11 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
| Eriksen | 11 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| Palmer | 9 | 2 | 11 | 38 |
| Mudryk | 9 | 1 | 7 | 33 |
| Foden | 8 | 1 | 6 | 36 |
| Son | 8 | 0 | 1 | 41 |
What about the opposition defences?
By assessing the recent defensive displays of each DGW37 side's opponents, managers can get a better idea of those who are most likely to score.
Newcastle and Man City look the standout attacks to invest in according to the Expected Goals Against (xGA) numbers.
The Magpies first play a Brighton side who have an xGA of 9.20 across their last six contests, and then face a Man Utd team who have a lofty 12.96 xGA across their previous six encounters. Those two figures combined come to 22.16 xGA, markedly better than the rest of the DGW37 sides.
Man City's opponents have a combined 18.57 xGA over the same period, with the Spurs defence looking particularly porous, with an xGA of 12.49.
There's very little between Brighton, Chelsea and Spurs in the analysis, while Man Utd fare the worst by some margin. Indeed, both their DGW37 opponents, Arsenal and Newcastle, were among the six best defences in the league for xGA across their last six matches.
DGW37 opponents, last six matches
| Team | Opponents' xGA | Opponents' combined xGA |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | BHA (9.20), MUN (12.96) | 22.16 |
| Man City | FUL (6.08), TOT (12.49) | 18.57 |
| Brighton | NEW (6.95), CHE (9.92) | 16.87 |
| Chelsea | NFO (7.62), BHA (9.20) | 16.82 |
| Spurs | BUR (11.38), MCI (5.25) | 16.63 |
| Man Utd | ARS (6.20), NEW (6.95) | 13.15 |
So, who should managers buy?
Palmer and Gordon’s numbers show why they will be hugely popular figures in DGW37 line-ups.
The underlying data indicates De Bruyne could be a better option than Foden if you have a spare Man City slot free. The Belgian’s minutes per shot and chance created are both quicker than his midfield team-mate across their last four matches, while he's also matching him for shots in the box.
Fernandes also looks a strong option if he’s fit, with the form and underlying player statistics very much in his favour.
Nonetheless, there’s no doubt that the opposition data is against Man Utd and the Portuguese is far from essential.
Elsewhere, Chelsea’s Madueke and Brighton winger Adingra could prove the pick of the cut-price options for those managers who need a budget midfielder to help with their Bench Boost chip.