Adrian Clarke analyses whether the three teams who surprisingly qualified for the European spots can maintain their progress this season.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
38 | +15 | 75 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +35 | 71 |
| 5 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +28 | 67 |
| 6 |
Brighton
BHA
|
38 | +19 | 62 |
| 7 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +5 | 61 |
| 8 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +7 | 60 |
Newcastle United
Eddie Howe will try to build on a terrific first full season in charge of Newcastle.
The Magpies boasted the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League which helped them claim a surprise top-four finish, with 71 points.
Both Newcastle and champions Manchester City conceded 33 goals, while Howe's side only allowed 20 goals from open play.
Solidity was the cornerstone of Newcastle’s success, and their collective industry helped them defend from the front better than most.
Any drop-off in work-rate could impact results, so they must keep pushing.
Howe has his squad well motivated and super-fit. Their league-best record in the last 15 minutes of matches - scored 16, conceded six - was a testament to that drive and spirit last season.
How can they improve?
The Magpies should improve their efficiency at converting set-pieces. Kieran Trippier’s deliveries gave Newcastle the best Expected Goals (xG) from dead-ball situations, but only 10 goals were scored in total.
Showing more ambition away to their immediate rivals would also represent a step forward in 2023/24.
In their six matches on the road at clubs who finished in the top seven, Howe’s men scored only once.
To go to the next level, they will need to release their defensive handbrake.
Brighton & Hove Albion
It is impossible not to be hugely impressed by Brighton’s attacking style of football and the progress they have made under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Seagulls produced by far their most swashbuckling football at the highest level last season, scoring 56 goals from open play, the third-highest total in the competition.
It didn't matter that any of their strikers scored more than six goals because with their array of skilful attacking midfielders, they helped Brighton score enough goals to help them finish sixth.
That is one area they will be looking to do better this season, though. Can one of Brighton’s centre-forwards, Danny Welbeck, Joao Pedro or Evan Ferguson, become a prolific goalscorer? That will be among their targets.
With the ball, Brighton are outstanding at moving it through the thirds.
Their tactics are high-risk, often luring opponents on to them inside their own box, but with additional De Zerbi coaching over the summer, it’s an aspect of their play that should only get better.
The same applies to their pressing, which is among the fiercest in the division.
One problem area in 2022/23 was their record against top-half teams. They kept only four clean sheets in those 18 matches, losing on 10 occasions. Brighton’s win ratio versus the top 10 was only 22.2 per cent.
There is no doubt that De Zerbi will seek to address that issue over the coming months. They cannot rely on being flat-track bullies if they wish to repeat their impressive feats from last season.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery’s Villa didn’t let in more than one goal in any of their last 15 Premier League matches. Managing matches with a high level of nous and expertise that is associated with the astute Spaniard, they were incredibly hard to beat.
It was this mantra that helped Villa time their run into seventh place to perfection, claiming a place in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Villa must retain those resilient qualities if they are to kick on, and with Pau Torres on board and Diego Carlos now fully fit, they should have more strength in depth.
Up top they rely heavily on Ollie Watkins. Over time this could become a problem. Last season Watkins scored 15 league goals. No one else managed more than six.
If Watkins has a dry spell or gets injured, winning matches will become problematic.
Moussa Diaby’s arrival at Villa Park eases those fears to a degree. He’s an attacking midfielder of serious promise. And we know that Youri Tielemans, a smart acquisition from Leicester City, also has the capability to score goals at the highest level.
The key to making progress in 2023/24 will be finding those extra goals from different individuals, and defending corners and free-kicks with greater conviction.
Letting in 14 set-piece goals last season, the third-highest tally in the division, Villa lost points that could have taken them into the UEFA Europa League instead.
Emery, as always, will be thorough in the way he seeks to extract more from his team.
Also in this series
Part 1: Can promoted clubs repeat feats of 2022/23 sides and all stay up?
Part 2: How will six of last season's strugglers fare in 2023/24?
Part 3: Will fallen giants bounce back in 2023/24?
