Alex Keble analyses where Sunday's matches could be won and lost, including:
- How Nunez can shake Villa's confidence
- Arteta and Ten Hag's conservative approach
Nunez a threat to emboldened Villa
Aston Villa have recovered very quickly from the 5-1 defeat by Newcastle United on the opening weekend, and with new signing Pau Torres improving their ability to pass out from the back Unai Emery’s side are becoming increasingly good at controlling matches.
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Matty Cash’s second goal in the 3-1 win at Burnley ended a 19-pass move, which is Villa’s longest goal-ending passing sequence since Opta records began in 2006/07.
It is also representative of a growing trend for the team. Across the first three League matches of the season Emery’s side are averaging 14.3 sequences of 10+ passes, considerably more than last season’s average of 8.2.
Although Villa are likely to take a more conservative approach at Anfield, and will certainly see less of the ball than at Burnley, this increased confidence in possession makes Sunday’s fixture particularly intriguing.
On the one hand Villa’s new 3-4-3 shape, used for the first time against Burnley, might mean Emery can construct the passing moves required to dismantle a new-look Liverpool central midfield that needs time to gel. It is notable that only Fulham, Sheff Utd, West Ham and Nottingham Forest - four low-block, defensive teams - have allowed more opposition “progressive passes” against them this season than Liverpool’s 136.
But just as likely, Villa’s aggressive defensive line and bold determination to use an offside trap will play into Liverpool’s hands. Villa allowed 95 through-balls last season, more than any other Premier League team and reflecting how often teams looked to move quickly behind Villa’s back line, as we saw Newcastle repeatedly manage on the opening day.
Darwin Nunez’s late double against Newcastle will be a worry for Villa fans. Should Jurgen Klopp start Nunez up front, Liverpool will have the option to go more direct and find the Uruguayan with early through-balls.
So far, Liverpool’s matches have been a little chaotic and certainly more end-to-end than Klopp would like.
Villa’s sharp counter-attacks and risky defensive line – coupled with Virgil van Dijk’s absence - almost guarantees another match in that mould.
Ten Hag and Arteta to take conservative steps
Both Arsenal and Manchester United have looked a little uncomfortable this season. Mikel Arteta has rejigged his central defence significantly and it has made Arsenal less fluid in possession - leading to an awkward 2-2 draw against Fulham last weekend - while Erik ten Hag is attempting to crank up his Ajax-style tactical principles in year two.
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So far, it isn’t working. Man Utd have had more pressed sequences (56) and high turnovers (41) than any Premier League side this season, reflecting a sudden move towards hard pressing from the front.
But it often looks disorganised, leaving them open to being outmanoeuvred. Wolverhampton Wanderers consistently dribbled through the middle in their opening match and Tottenham Hotspur’s fast transitions left Casemiro dazed in a 2-0 defeat in north London.
This weekend, both managers are likely to take conservative steps to improve their respective situations.
Arsenal should move back to their usual back four, if Oleksandr Zinchenko is available for selection from the start, thus ending the experiment with Thomas Partey at right-back.
Ten Hag will likely instruct his team to sit deeper and defend with greater caution at Emirates Stadium, where Arsenal have lost only two of their last 24 fixtures.
Last season Man Utd held 43 per cent possession at Arsenal and 40 per cent in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.
Ten Hag’s side held below 50 per cent in seven of their 10 matches against the traditional “big six” teams.
He tended to follow the Ole Gunnar Solskjaer method of sitting deep and waiting for chances to counter-attack, and that would appear to be the most sensible approach should Arteta normalise his back four and, as a consequence, oversee a more fluent performance.
If that does happen, it means that whatever the result we will witness more competent, assured, and ordered performances from both Arsenal and Manchester United.
