Is Salah now a better pick than Haaland in Fantasy?

Mohamed Salah’s (£12.8m) fourth double-figure haul in the last five Gameweeks suggests it may be time for managers in Fantasy Premier League to revise their tactics.

Liverpool’s Egyptian scored twice to claim his season-high return of 16 points against Everton on Saturday.

Salah's second goal v Everton

Yet Salah was captained by only 1.24 million managers compared with the 6m of Erling Haaland (£14.0m).

Haaland’s huge popularity is essentially dictating how millions of managers play the game.

The Manchester City forward’s 88 per cent ownership means he will always be the runaway armband pick in every Gameweek.

It also makes him an unsellable asset for those managers, with the fear being that a big haul from Haaland could destroy the Gameweek rank of any non-owners.

Outscoring Haaland

However, after nine Gameweeks of 2023/24, Salah has proven more than a match for the Norwegian.

He has outscored Haaland in six of the last eight Gameweeks on his way to the top of the player standings on 75 points.

The pair’s recent performances indicate a definite shift in momentum towards Salah.

He has outscored Haaland by 42 points to 18 over the last four Gameweeks, equating to a 48-point armband advantage for those who favoured the Liverpool star.

Haaland and Salah first nine Gameweeks

Granted, three of Salah’s five goals in that run have been converted penalties.

Yet bearing in mind that Haaland has faced Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Brighton & Hove Albion in that period, his tally of two goals has been significantly underwhelming.

The underlying statistics are even more alarming for Haaland backers, with the Norwegian managing a mere five shots in the last four Gameweeks.

Salah has produced at least three times the number of shots and shots in the box than the Man City star in that period. He has also proven far more creative by eight key passes to three.

Haaland and Salah last four Gameweeks

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An assessment of the team statistics in that period indicates that Man City have been far from their best.

They have managed only 44 shots in the last four Gameweeks, 30 fewer than Liverpool.

Incredibly, the champions rank second-bottom for shots in the box. Their total of 25 is better only than Fulham, who will play their Gameweek 9 match against Tottenham Hotspur on Monday evening.

Man City have had only five big chances from Gameweek 6 onwards, the same number as AFC Bournemouth.

Liverpool, on the other hand, rank top for shots and also place among the top three for shots in the box, big chances and shots on target.

Liverpool and Man City last four Gameweeks

Assessing each side’s upcoming schedule, Salah has the clear advantage for points potential across their next six matches.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), four of Liverpool’s matches score only two, compared with only one of Man City's.

Liverpool and Man City's fixtures GW10-15

Sell Haaland to free up funds? 

While this provides managers with an obvious captain alternative, it goes beyond the armband decision and raises the question: Should managers consider selling Haaland to spread the funds across their starting XIs?

Pairing Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.3m) with Haaland’s Man City team-mate Julian Alvarez (£7.1m) costs only £1.4m more than Haaland alone.

Watkins has outscored the Norwegian by seven points, while Alvarez sits only six points behind Haaland.

Watkins's goal v West Ham

That can allow managers to load up on midfield big-hitters, owning Arsenal pair Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard (both £8.5m), along with Salah and Son Heung-min (£9.5m), as well as Newcastle United's Kieran Trippier (£6.9m) in defence.

Chances drying up

The underlying statistics show why selling Haaland was simply not an option at the beginning of the season.

His totals of 29 shots, 29 shots in the box, 13 big chances, 14 shots on target and seven goals were all more than any other player in the first five Gameweeks of 2023/24 Fantasy.

However, there has been a noticeable decline.

Haaland has averaged 1.2 shots per match in the last four Gameweeks, compared with 5.8 in the opening five.

He has totalled two big chances in the last four Gameweeks, while prior to that he was averaging 2.6 big chances per match.

Haaland's stats per 90 compared

When comparing his displays this season with his performances in the corresponding matches last campaign, Haaland has failed to live up to his prolific debut campaign.

He has played seven such matches in 2023/24 - at home to Newcastle, Fulham, Nott'm Forest and Brighton, and at West Ham United, Wolves and Arsenal.

The Man City forward delivered attacking returns in all seven of those fixtures in 2022/23, but has blanked in three of them this season; against Newcastle, Wolves and Arsenal.

Indeed, in six of these outings Haaland has recorded fewer points than last season.

He has averaged 6.6 points per match (ppm), down from 9.1ppm last season.

Haaland's 22/23 output compared with same fixtures in 23/24

As Liverpool have yet to play a promoted side, this can be applied to all nine of Salah's matches.

The Egyptian has fared far better this campaign, outscoring his total from last season's matches on seven occasions.

Salah blanked in five of those matches in 2022/23 but has blanked only once this season, at Spurs.

Significantly, his average of 8.3ppm is far superior to his 5.2ppm in the same matches in 2022/23.

Salah's 22/23 output compared with same fixtures in 23/24

Essentially, Haaland’s huge popularity has changed the way millions of managers choose to play Fantasy.

For them, owning the Man City forward and captaining him each Gameweek is now simply part of the game, allowing them to focus on the other 10 players in their line-up.

There is every likelihood that the vast majority will continue with this tactic, which gives a window of opportunity to those who are prepared to look beyond the ownership levels and focus on the statistics instead.

Haaland is not only failing to live up to his own exceptionally high standards, he is also being consistently outperformed by Salah.

With Watkins and two Arsenal attackers also looking near-essential for their favourable fixtures, reinvesting the Haaland funds would allow managers to load up on a host of key players in Fantasy for the upcoming period.

The “always own, always captain Haaland” tactic is an understandably popular, risk-averse approach in Fantasy.

But if there was ever a point in the season where managers should consider going against this tactic, the statistics suggest now is the time.

Also in this series

Part 2: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 10 Ones to watch
Part 3: FPL expert Gianni Buttice's Gameweek 10 Wildcard squad
Part 4: FPL experts' must-haves for a Gameweek 10 Wildcard
Part 5: Keep or sell Son and Maddison in Fantasy?
Part 6: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 10 Differentials
Part 7: Who is the best budget midfielder to own in Fantasy?
Part 8: FPL experts: Who is the best budget midfielder?