Feature

Burnley to Fulham: What do clubs need in January transfer window?

By Alex Keble 6 Jan 2024
Burnley to Fulham V2

Alex Keble and Adrian Clarke analyse areas to strengthen in our club-by-club review

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With the January transfer window now open, Alex Keble and Adrian Clarke assess each of the 20 Premier League clubs and pinpoint areas they need to strengthen.

Burnley

Targets: Direct winger & full-back

Vincent Kompany’s side are struggling to make an impact in the Premier League as they continue the patient possession style that won them promotion in 2022/23.

Those qualities need tempering, and while there is no reason to throw out Kompany’s tactical plan, he could do with a touch more of the old Burnley.

Burnley’s "direct speed" (the average speed of ball movement towards the opponents’ goal during a sequence of play) is measured by Opta at 1.45 metres/second, making them the second-slowest team behind Manchester City.

They are also 19th in the Premier League for attempted crosses, with 295, and 20th for completed crosses, with 19. Brighton have scored the second-fewest set-piece goals, with two, and rank fourth-bottom for take-on success, with 42 per cent.

Burnley v Luton

That might sound like an eclectic set of statistics, but put them all together and you find Burnley would benefit from a quick winger with an eye for a cross, both in open play and from dead-ball situations.

That would speed them up a little, add some dribbling power, and potentially improve their attacking set-pieces – a vital tool for any promoted side.

Burnley also need a left-back after failing to make Ian Maatsen’s loan move from Chelsea permanent in the summer.

Attacking full-backs were a crucial part of Kompany’s tactical plan in 2022/23 but not any more, and it is interesting to note that their full-backs are no longer influential.

Last season, full-backs Connor Roberts and Maatsen ranked third and fourth respectively among Burnley players for key passes. This year, Roberts is 13th and left-back Charlie Taylor is ninth.

Chelsea

Targets: Goalscorer & left-back

Everybody knows Chelsea’s greatest weakness this season.

They have the second-highest Expected Goals (xG) in the division, with 39.4, yet have only scored 34 goals, which is the fourth-biggest underperformance in the Premier League.

Nicolas Jackson is the chief offender, scoring seven goals but underhitting his xG by 3.6. He is talented, but the 22-year-old needs more time to settle.

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And he isn’t the only profligate Chelsea player. Despite ranking second for xG, Chelsea’s post-shot xG (which measures the quality of the shot after it was taken) is 36.7, putting them seventh in the table.

In other words, they are creating good chances – but shooting poorly.

Chelsea shots v Forest (H)
Chelsea's shots v Nott'm Forest - black: blocked; green: miss; red: save

Black: blocked; green: miss; red: save

Mauricio Pochettino may also be interested in a left-back, seeing as injuries have restricted Ben Chilwell to 25 Premier League starts across the last two-and-a-half years.

Levi Colwill has deputised well, starting 18 matches at left-back, but he is a centre-back by trade – and it shows.

Overlapping full-backs provide all the width in Pochettino’s tactical strategy, yet Colwill has managed just one assist and is averaging only 1.31 shot-creating actions per 90.

Crystal Palace

Targets: Central midfielder & Zaha replacement

Cheick Doucoure’s season-ending injury in November has had a huge impact on Crystal Palace, who won 14 points from the 10 matches prior to his injury and half that number in the 10 matches since.

What’s missing without Doucoure is control. He tops the Palace charts for pass completion, with 87 per cent, for tackles, with 3.33 per 90 minutes, interceptions, with 1.96 per 90, and recoveries, with 7.25 per 90.

With Doucoure out the team, Palace have been dispossessed and have miscontrolled the ball more than any other Premier League team, with 226 and 338 respectively.

It has left them a little ragged and disordered, hence a record of one win in 10 encounters.

Roy Hodgson could also do with a replacement for Wilfried Zaha, who left for Galatasaray in the summer.

Michael Olise’s return from injury has been explosive, with the Frenchman scoring four goals in four matches, but nevertheless Palace lack the spark they had when Zaha, Olise, and Eberechi Eze worked together during those free-flowing early days of Hodgson’s second spell.

Over the final 10 matches of last season, Palace averaged 14.8 shots per match and scored 18 goals. This year, they are averaging 11.7 shots per 90 minutes and are the division’s third-lowest scorers, with 22.

That’s only four more than they managed in half the number of matches at the back end of 2022/23. A Zaha-style winger could restore those happier days.

Everton

Targets: Central midfielder & winger

With injuries in midfield piling up, Sean Dyche was forced to abandon his usual 4-4-1-1 formation for a 5-4-1 against Wolverhampton Wanderers, and it backfired pretty spectacularly as Everton fell to a 3-0 defeat.

“We lacked that fizz and energy [and] fell short with the physicality,” Dyche said after. “They exposed moments when we looked jaded.”

That’s why Dyche might be looking to add bite (and depth) into his central midfield, giving Everton the option to rotate or at least cope better with midfield injuries.

Abdoulaye Doucoure will return from injury soon but Everton have not won any of the three Premier League fixtures he has missed this season, suggesting reinforcements are required.

Everton might also benefit from a winger to ease some of the pressure on Dwight McNeil.

Considering the directness and width-focus of Dyche’s football, it is surprising that Everton sit 19th for attempted take-ons, with 296.

More surprising still, Everton have only scored three headed goals this season, despite attempting 407 crosses, the second-most in the division and sitting joint-top for completed crosses into the penalty area, with 45.

EVE v LUT crosses image

Perhaps Dominic Calvert-Lewin is to blame for that, but more likely Everton’s crosses aren’t quite dangerous enough, and since Arnaut Danjuma is still out of favour, the best solution for Dyche may be to dip into the transfer market.

Fulham

Targets: Keeping/replacing Palhinha & Willian alternative

Joao Palhinha came very close to joining Bayern Munich in the summer and the German champions are reportedly interesting in reigniting the deal.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Palhinha has been just as imperious this season as last, completing more tackles than anyone else, with 44, and blocking the second-most passes, with 30 in the Premier League.

Palhinha's tackle v Arsenal

Regardless of whether or not Palhinha leaves this month, Fulham need to start preparing for life without him. The 28-year-old is undoubtedly good enough to be playing UEFA Champions League football.

Fulham should also look at bringing in help for Willian, who leads the charge in Marco Silva’s wing-based tactical system.

Silva relies upon quick switches (Fulham have hit 71, the third-most in the division) to wingers who then drive towards goal and cross for Raul Jimenez, and yet too often Willian is the only creative force.

The Brazilian has hit almost three times as many successful crosses, with 13, as any other Fulham player, which helps to explain why Fulham have won 20 points from the 13 matches Willian has started and only four points from the seven in which he has not.

Silva’s team have had the second-fewest touches in the opposition box this season, with 382, and have attempted the third-fewest take-ons, with 301. Another Willian-type player wouldn’t go amiss.

Also in this series

Part 1: Arsenal to Brighton
Part 3: Liverpool to Newcastle
Part 4: Nott'm Forest to Wolves

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