Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 30?

Cole Palmer (£5.8m) is among a host of strong armband options for managers who plan to overlook Erling Haaland (£14.3m) and Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) for the captaincy in Gameweek 30 of Fantasy Premier League.

Manchester City's Haaland and Arsenal's Saka are the two most-owned players in the game, found in 71 per cent and 61 per cent of squads respectively. But with the duo going head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon, many of those backers will be seeking an alternative for the armband.

Chelsea’s home encounter with Burnley immediately lifts Palmer’s prospects. He welcomes the Clarets on the back of one goal, four assists and 30 points in his last four matches.

Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Son Heung-min (£10.1m), Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Rodrigo Muniz (£4.6m) also have very kind matches this weekend.

Liverpool’s Salah has amassed 31 points across his last four appearances ahead of a home meeting with Brighton & Hove Albion. He mirrored Palmer’s five goal contributions, scoring three and assisting two.

Tottenham Hotspur’s Son and Aston Villa’s Watkins also play at home, entertaining Luton Town and Wolverhampton Wanderers respectively.

Son has two goals and two assists in his previous four appearances to claim 28 points, bettering Watkins by just two points. 

Fulham’s Muniz, meanwhile, has mirrored Watkins’ three goals and an assist, and now visits Sheffield United.

Player form, last four matches

Who has had the greatest goal threat?

The underlying numbers over each player’s last four matches highlight Muniz’s major goal threat.

The Fulham forward places top in the assessment, with 17 shots and 16 shots in the box, while a 17.6 per cent goal conversion rate looks sustainable.

Salah’s involvement in big chances is the standout statistic. The Egyptian has had five and created five despite featuring as a substitute in two of his last four matches.

Son is his nearest rival for big chance involvement, with a total of seven, while Watkins’ four big chances places him second for this statistic, although the Villa star failed to create any for his team-mates.

Palmer, meanwhile, leads his rivals with eight key passes and also matched the 12 shots of Watkins. However, only five of those efforts were from inside the box. 

Player attacking threat, last four matches

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How are they performing home/away?

The home and away numbers highlight Salah’s huge influence on Liverpool at Anfield.

Salah has been involved in 27 big chances in home matches this season, the same number as Palmer and Son combined.

In terms of frequency of big chance involvement, though, Palmer runs the Egyptian closest, with Son and Watkins near-identical on 70.8 minutes and 72.9 minutes respectively.

Muniz’s total of two big chance involvements in 425 minutes across away matches clearly goes against him here.

Nonetheless, the Fulham forward has averaged 25 minutes per shot in the box in those encounters – quicker than any of his rivals have managed in home fixtures.

Player form, home/away 2023/24

What about the opposition?

The data over each club’s last four matches favours both Son and Muniz.

Spurs face a Luton side who conceded a league-high 18 big chances in those contests, while Muniz’s hosts Sheff Utd allowed 67 shots in the box, at least 10 more than any other team.

Salah’s visitors Brighton are by far the best on show here; indeed, they were the second-best defence for conceding the fewest shots in the box and big chances.

The numbers also show Wolves and Burnley’s backlines have been near-identical for allowing shots in the box and big chances – an indication that Watkins’ visitors were fortunate to concede only five goals.

Opponents' form, last four matches

How do the opponents fare home/away?

Luton and Sheff Utd are again identified as two of the weakest defences in the home and away analysis.

In away matches, the Hatters have conceded 202 shots in the box and 62 big chances, the worst totals in the league.

The Blades, meanwhile, have conceded a league-high 42 goals in home encounters this season. They also rank among the bottom three in the analysis for allowing shots in the box and big chances.

Burnley’s away displays are also worth noting; their total of 180 shots in the box conceded in those matches is the second-worst record in the league.

The data also shows Brighton’s struggles on the road, too – they have conceded 35 big chances, just four fewer than Burnley. 

Team home/away form, 2023/24

So, who is the best captain?

Salah’s Anfield numbers are so convincing it’s impossible to look beyond the Liverpool star.

He’s involved in almost three big chances in every home match and faces a Brighton side who have conceded an average of two goals per away match.

There’s no doubt that Salah’s rivals could also deliver big hauls, with Son, Palmer and Muniz all worth considering as alternatives against the promoted clubs. 

The Spurs star just about edges it for the vice-captain over Palmer due to his superior finishing skills.