Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical trends across the 2023/24 season.
We saw a lot of quality headed goals throughout a thrilling 2023/24 campaign.
For only the second time in two decades, more than 200 headers (203) have been scored, with Chris Wood, Jarrod Bowen and Ollie Watkins leading the way with five apiece.
This was no mean feat considering the Premier League had lost two of its top three heading specialists, Harry Kane and Aleksandar Mitrovic, on the eve of this season.
They produced 16 headed goals between them in 2022/23, but nevertheless their summer transfers did nothing to prevent at huge 22.3 per cent rise in the number of goals scored this way.
Interestingly, across the last five seasons, this was the campaign that delivered the most headed shots, headed shots on target, and headed goals.
Headed goals/shots last five seasons
| Season | Headed goals | Headed shots | Headed shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 138 | 1,391 | 497 |
| 2020/21 | 170 | 1,428 | 546 |
| 2021/22 | 164 | 1,390 | 525 |
| 2022/23 | 166 | 1,482 | 563 |
| 2023/24 | 203 | 1,507 | 582 |
Clinical in the air
In a record-breaking season, when goals went in left, right and centre, this sharp climb in headers may not come as a big surprise.
They represented a 16.3 per cent share of all goals, the most in three years, but across the last 20 years that is not an exceptional figure.
What should be noted is that the quality of finishing in the air, was genuinely outstanding.
Conversion rates were extraordinarily high, jumping from a four-season average of 11.19 per cent to 13.47 per cent in 2023/24.
Headed conversion rate last five seasons
| Season | Conversion rate |
|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 9.90% |
| 2020/21 | 11.90% |
| 2021/22 | 11.79% |
| 2022/23 | 11.20% |
| 2023/24 | 13.47% |
Luton Town’s Elijah Adebayo (below) scored four goals from just 10 headers (40 per cent) and Manchester United midfielder Scott McTominay netted three from nine attempts (33.3 per cent).
Of players to score three or more headers, they were the most lethal.
The joint-top scorers of headed goals were also way above average in terms of delivering accurate efforts inside the box.
Bowen (29.4 per cent), Wood (27.5 per cent) and Watkins (20 per cent) will all be delighted with their success rate en route to scoring five each.
Fewest crosses on record
Another trend that flies in the face of this large rise in headed goals is the continued downturn in crosses produced in Premier League matches.
Back in 2003/04, we saw 42 crosses per match, but since then we have witnessed a year-on-year decrease, leading to an average of just 23.5 crosses this term.
In real terms, across 380 matches that is a drop-off from 15,954 crosses to just 8,937.
When you consider just 168 headed goals were scored in 2003/04, it points towards far better finishing and much poorer defending of balls put into the box in the season which has just finished.
Comfort in possession is a trait that head coaches now crave in central defenders, so aerial prowess among players in that position has perhaps suffered.
Big strikers in fashion
This could be a prime reason why tall target man centre-forwards were very much in vogue during 2023/24.
Targeting possible fragility in the air, managers across the division seemed to shift their priorities inside the final third.
Kai Havertz quickly established himself as Arsenal’s first-choice striker under Mikel Arteta, and several other tall strikers also came to the fore.
Castrol Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland led the way again of course, but the likes of Dominic Solanke, Carlton Morris, Rodrigo Muniz, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Alexander Isak and Wood are all big strikers who enjoyed terrific seasons too.
In many respects it was smart of Premier League managers to recognise that a lot of central defenders are not as dominant in the air as they have been in the past.
This has not encouraged more crosses, but physical forwards do seem to be experiencing plenty of success.
