Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Liverpool to make early title statement at Old Trafford?
- Who of Arsenal and Brighton will keep unbeaten start?
- Are Fulham ideal opponents for first Ipswich win?
- Can Newcastle keep up strong home form v Spurs?
- Could Chelsea add to Palace's poor start?
- Will Watkins kickstart his season at Leicester?
- Can Forest capitalise on Wolves' wild pressing?
- Will Southampton get their first goal at Brentford?
- Is Lopetegui going to end West Ham's poor record v Man City?
- Will Dyche or Iraola to enjoy August win at last?
Can Slot make history and spark title challenge?
An August trip to Old Trafford might be a gift for Arne Slot.
Manchester United look stronger than in 2023/24 but still flawed enough for Liverpool to be favourites here, giving Slot the chance to endear himself to supporters with a victory that would put Liverpool firmly in the early title race - and make history, too.
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None of the last nine Liverpool managers have won their first league meeting with Man Utd. Bob Paisley, who beat United 3-1 in November 1975, was the last person to do it.
If Slot can produce results that put him in the same sentence as Paisley, he’s off to a flyer.
And victory feels like the most likely outcome. Liverpool have the highest expected goals (xG) total of 5.3, and the lowest expected goals against (xGA) total of 1.0 in the division so far.
That stands in contrast to Man Utd, who have been a bit shaky and less disciplined.
Both Fulham and Brighton & Hove Albion enjoyed periods of dominance when Erik ten Hag’s new high press began to fade and become disjointed.
Then again, the form guide rarely counted for much when Jurgen Klopp was in charge. When the sides met in April, United had won only one of their last five in the Premier League and Liverpool were top of the table, yet only a late Mohamed Salah penalty prevented Ten Hag’s side from winning 2-1.
Liverpool’s title challenge never recovered.
Their first meeting of the 2024/25 season might not carry quite so much weight, but the consequences of it could be seismic.
A win for Liverpool would surely put them up there as title challengers. Defeat for Man Utd, a week after the loss at Brighton, would dent Ten Hag’s credit back into trouble.
Can Arsenal emulate Liverpool’s 2019/20 success?
Something has to give this weekend as two of the four clubs with 100 per cent records go head-to-head at Emirates Stadium. It’s a contest too close to call.
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Brighton have started brightly under Fabian Hurzeler and, after spending a reported £200million or so this summer, excitement is building at Amex Stadium.
Victory at Arsenal would probably stir talk of an unlikely pursuit of UEFA Champions League football.
But the bigger story remains Arsenal, who, beaten twice in the title race in the last two seasons by an imperious Manchester City, must find a way to get out ahead in 2024/25 - and stay there.
Their inspiration should be Liverpool in 2019/20, who broke Man City’s streak by carrying their form at the end of 2018/19 - when they won nine in a row - into the following season, winning 26 of their first 27 in the Premier League.
Arsenal must steamroller their way through the start of this campaign. It’s probably the only way to crush Man City's spirits.
They are showing signs of doing just that. The 2-0 win at Villa Park was a huge moment for Mikel Arteta’s side, who weathered the storm before batting away their bogey team and made it eight Premier League wins in a row.
Arsenal last won nine consecutively between January and March 2004, in the middle of their 2003/04 "Invincibles" season.
That’s the level they need to operate at, or else Man City will be set to make it five titles in five years.
Can refreshed Ipswich kickstart campaign?
Although buried beneath the headline fixtures in a Saturday 15:00 slot, Ipswich Town v Fulham is one of the most important matches of the Premier League weekend.
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For Ipswich, momentum is everything. It’s how they managed to propel themselves so quickly through League One and the Championship, and there is a valid fear that losing it will spark a fall.
It would be unfair to judge Ipswich’s losing start to life in the top flight after they played Liverpool and Man City in their first two. But those defeats will hurt and will dent morale. The penalty-shootout defeat to AFC Wimbledon in the EFL Cup on Wednesday did not help.
Four of their new signings - Chiedozie Ogbene, Dara O’Shea, Kalvin Phillips and Jack Clarke - made their debuts in the 2-2 draw in south London, which might have sapped the energy and excitement out of Ipswich’s late push in the transfer window.
Fulham at home isn’t easy - no Premier League match is - but it’s one of a handful of fixtures at Portman Road in which Ipswich will fancy their chances this season.
Kieran McKenna must view Saturday’s encounter as the start of their season proper. This is their opportunity to kickstart their campaign and show they can compete at this level.
Will Howe’s tactics continue Newcastle’s strong home record against Spurs?
Tottenham Hotpsur have lost their last two Premier League matches at Newcastle United by an aggregate score of 10-1, the most recent being a 4-0 victory for Eddie Howe’s side in April.
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The story of that match was predictable, and there is every chance we will see a similar pattern on Sunday: Spurs’ high line, aggressive pressing, and expansive possession football being cut open by the hosts’ sharp counter-attacks.
So far in 2024/25, Newcastle haven’t had the chance to showcase their rapid transitions. They were pinned back with 10 men by Southampton on the opening weekend, then allowed to dominate possession, with 61 per cent, against a retreating and cautious AFC Bournemouth last weekend.
Spurs, then, are the first team truly vulnerable to the speed and directness of Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes.
In the 4-0 win in April, Newcastle tore past Spurs by playing long balls over the top of the high line, scoring twice from that simple move, as well as netting the opener in the transition.
Defensively, Howe’s switch to a 5-4-1 formation, when out of possession, nullified Ange Postecoglou's men. By dropping a midfielder into the defensive line, Newcastle had a spare defender to track the runs of Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie.
Repeat those tactics, and Newcastle might again win big.
Woe for who in huge match for Maresca and Glasner?
The 6-2 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers could be the start of something special for Enzo Maresca, or we could look back on it as a bizarre anomaly in a strange year for Chelsea.
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After all, Wolves actually recorded a higher xG than Chelsea (1.96 to 1.68) in what was a wild and weird 90 minutes at Molineux.
Clubs with highest goals scored above xG in 24/25
| Club | Goals | xG | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 6 | 2.7 | +3.3 |
| Arsenal | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
| Man City | 5 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| Brighton | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 |
| Spurs | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 |
Chelsea are a tough team to decipher, and of course after another busy transfer window, that may well remain the case throughout 2024/25. How they do against struggling Crystal Palace will give us some clues.
Palace have lost both of their league matches this season, despite the relatively tame start of facing West Ham United and Brentford, perhaps reflecting their new reality after Oliver Glasner’s honeymoon period well and truly ended this summer.
Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen have left the club, Marc Guehi might before Friday’s transfer deadline. They need something positive to stop getting sucked into an early relegation battle.
As for Chelsea, they haven’t lost their first two league matches of the season at Stamford Bridge since 1978/79.
A draw isn’t much good to either. By full-time, at least one of the two managers may well enter the international break in an anxious mood.
Does Leicester’s defence give Watkins chance to reset?
Ollie Watkins will still be thinking about those two glaring misses against Arsenal last weekend. Had he scored either one, Aston Villa would probably have won the match.
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He cannot let them haunt him. If Villa are to qualify for the Champions League again they need Watkins to repeat his brilliant performances of 2023/24, when he scored 19 goals and assisted a further 13 in the Premier League.
But Watkins has now gone seven Premier League appearances without a goal, his longest barren run since an eight-match spell between August and October 2022, just before Unai Emery was appointed as head coach.
His shot map for this season does not look good:
Fortunately for Watkins and Villa, Leicester City could give him the chance to get back on his feet.
Leicester have conceded 33 shots so far this season, the second-most in the Premier League behind Newcastle United.
Watkins hasn’t looked match fit this season, understandably considering his already-truncated pre-season was cut even shorter by injury. A goal at Leicester ought to change that.
Will Wolves’ wild pressing give us goals at Forest?
Wolves’ 6-2 defeat to Chelsea last weekend might not be a one-off.
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In a wild 4-2-4 formation, Gary O’Neil’s side pressed hard all over the pitch, leaving enormous gaps between the lines and forcing Chelsea into a basketball match Maresca almost certainly did not want.
Being so gung-ho against a team of Chelsea’s quality suggests O’Neil will have no problem doing the same thing at Nottingham Forest, which ought to trigger a similar blur of action at both ends.
In Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Morgan Gibbs-White, Nuno Espirito Sant’s counter-attacking Forest will revel in the space that opens up when Wolves' high press is beaten.
Wolves have lost their last five Premier League matches, conceding 18 goals. Forest, with 37, have taken the joint-most shots. There will be goals at the City Ground.
Will home victory set a season-long tone for both Brentford and Southampton?
It has not been a great start for Southampton. Two defeats without a goal scored is a bad way to start. In addition, their first two opponents, Newcastle and Forest, have revealed the perils of playing a possession-obsessed game at Premier League level.
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Brentford might add salt to the wounds. Thomas Frank's side are superb at breaking quickly with direct passing that sets Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo away, and it is easy to imagine Frank coming up with a fine-tuned strategy to target Southampton’s defensive vulnerabilities.
If that happens, the result might set a precedent for the season, and not just for Saints.
Mbeumo and Wissa linking-up against Palace
Liquid football 🤤
— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) August 19, 2024
This angle of Mbeumo's opener 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CRVAI0k05e
Brentford are looking for their first consecutive Premier League home wins since November. Doing so would put a full stop on a difficult nine months for the club and, taking them to six points from three matches, signal their revival.
Can Lopetegui improve West Ham’s record v City?
Man City haven’t lost any of their 16 Premier League matches against West Ham United under Pep Guardiola (W14 D2).
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They’ve won the last four in a row, all by a two-goal margin. Their 25 goals at the London Stadium is the most an away team has scored at a specific ground in the Premier League since the stadium opened in 2016/17.
They like playing the Hammers. And they particularly liked playing David Moyes’s West Ham, who too often retreated into a shell, seemingly waiting to be attacked.
Julen Lopetegui won’t defend quite so deep, but his Wolves side were beaten 3-0 by Guardiola’s Man City in January 2023, while Sevilla were beaten 4-0 in September 2022 when he was in charge.
Can Dyche or Iraola overcome their poor August record?
Sean Dyche and Andoni Iraola don’t like August.
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Under Dyche, Everton have lost all five of their Premier League matches in August without scoring a single goal, and Dyche has a 12.5 per cent win ratio in August as a manager, the worst in Premier League history.
Meanwhile Iraola has won only two of his 14 league matches in August across spells at Bournemouth, Mirandes, and Rayo Vallecano.
Both clubs started last season poorly yet both had successful years, so it would be disingenuous to suggest this is a must-win match for either manager.
Still, Bournemouth certainly hoped to avoid repeating their slow start in 2023/24 and Everton, 0-7 on aggregate so far, are in a more serious position.
A win would do a world of good for either manager.
