The tactical trends of the season so far

The dawn of each new season brings with it fresh ideas, new patterns, and a host of interesting observations.

What have Premier League coaches been working on over the summer? What learnings are they attempting to take into the 2024/25 campaign?

After the first three rounds of matches, our tactics analyst Adrian Clarke has taken a closer look at what’s trending in the Premier League.

The most popular formation

Systems of play always fall in and out of fashion, but the start to 2024/25 has confirmed that 4-2-3-1 is very much the most favoured shape among Premier League coaches.  

11 of the 20 sides currently opt for it as their first-choice formation, and while just three rounds of matches represent a small sample size, the use of 4-2-3-1 has risen from 38.9 per cent last term to 51.6 per cent to make it the overwhelmingly dominant choice.

Formations used 2024/25

Different managers will use this shape in contrasting ways though.

Teams like Nottingham Forest for example, will adopt a straightforward double pivot midfield that sits in front of the back four, freeing up a natural No.10 (Morgan Gibbs-White) to push on and join in with the striker.

Forest’s 4-2-3-1 Passing Map/Average Positions v Bournemouth

New Brighton & Hove Albion head coach Fabian Hurzeler looks at the system slightly differently, using it out of possession before morphing into more of a 4-1-2-3 when they have the ball.

We have seen James Milner push on to the right, Joao Pedro drop off from No.10 to the left, with Mats Wieffer sitting in a lone holding role when in possession.

Brighton’s 4-2-3-1 Passing Map/Average Positions v Everton

Fellow Premier League new boy Arne Slot, who has switched from Jurgen Klopp’s 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1, has his own take on how it works when they have the ball.

The Dutchman likes his midfield trio to all work off varying angles, so you will rarely see any of Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister or Dominik Szoboszlai operating in straight lines.

This chalkboard from their 3-0 win at Manchester United highlights this.

When Trent Alexander-Arnold inverts, you will often see Gravenberch push forward to play as more of a No.8.

Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 Passing Map/Average Positions v Manchester United

Pressing with a block of four

It seems as if a lot of head coaches also want to press in a 4-2-4 shape right now, and that is easy to spring into from a 4-2-3-1.

Pinning the opposition in from restarts, or blocking off those key passing lanes into central midfield, has become a priority focus for many top-flight managers.

A great example of this can be seen from Aston Villa’s strategy at home to Arsenal.

Here you see below, striker Ollie Watkins and No.10 Morgan Rogers dropping onto the toes of the two deep-lying midfielders, and everybody else going man to man.

The wide players hold off, in an attempt to shield passes into Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard.

This set-up is putting pressure on Arsenal's centre backs who cannot find a pass into central midfield.

Once John McGinn jumps out to press, he is the trigger for everybody else to close down with greater intensity, while keeping the framework of that four-man block.

Gabriel Maghalaes was robbed by Leon Bailey, leading to a gilt-edged chance for Watkins.

This type of tactical approach has been seen right across the division in the early weeks.

Back threes remain on the fringe

Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Southampton are the only teams to have started every match until this point with a three-man pairing.

Interestingly, Palace and City both opt for a slight imbalance that allows them to seamlessly switch to a back four from that point as well.

Rico Lewis will regularly move from central midfield to right back for the champions, while Tyrick Mitchell is far more inclined to tuck around to an orthodox full back position than Daniel Munoz on the other flank for Oliver Glasner’s men.

Ipswich Town did adopt a back five for their daunting trip to the Etihad Stadium, and Leicester City went with a 3-4-3 at Fulham, but in general it is a tactic that is being used less and less by Premier League sides.

Just five seasons ago 30 per cent of all shapes features three centre backs, but as it stands that figure is down to 18.3 per cent.

Defensive shapes used in the Premier League

Doubling up on full backs

One of the more prominent tactical features of the season so far has been the deliberate targeting of rival full backs.

Central players are moving laterally as a matter of course in search of numerical advantages they can profit from.

In Tottenham Hotspur’s 4-0 success against Everton for example, Ange Postecoglou regularly shifted Dejan Kulusevski from right side No.8 to the right wing where he doubled up with Brennan Johnson for overloads against Vitaliy Mykolenko.

No.10 James Maddison also did this consistently on the other side, creating 2v1s around Leicester City and Everton’s right backs on MW’s 1 and 2.

Maddison’s heat map 2024/25

Man City’s use of Kevin de Bruyne has also caught the eye.

While the Belgian has license to move all around the final third, he has been taking up very high, advanced positions on the left, and is often Pep Guardiola’s widest player in the build-up phase.

This was certainly the case against West Ham United where he freed up Jack Grealish to take up positions infield that suit him.

Arsenal have drawing Odegaard towards the right, where he likes to combine with Bukayo Saka, for two seasons now – but now we are seeing Rice perform similar instructions on the left.

Known for his solidity down the spine, Rice has stretched play by standing in wider positions on a far more regular basis.

This is his 2024/25 heat map (below) and it tells the story of a player that has an evolving role.

With left back Jurrien Timber inclined to invert into the middle, Rice is freed up to support Leandro Trossard or Gabriel Martinelli on his outside.

Mid-block pressing on the rise

At the start of each season head coaches spend plenty of time fine-tuning off the ball work, coming up with co-ordinated plans to retrieve possession in advanced areas.

With that in mind, and early season synergy perhaps making opponents vulnerable to losing the ball, it is surprising that high turnovers and shots from high turnovers are down on last season.

Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers have been caught out for goals, but there has been a reduction of almost 12 per cent in high turnovers.

In general, a touch more pragmatism has been shown when playing out from the back.

Decrease in high turnovers

Based on an improvement in PPDA (passes per defensive action) stats however – a sign that teams out of possession are disrupting play a little quicker – this shift could also be down to a renewed focus on trying to block up the middle third instead.

With most Premier League sides now so keen on passing through the thirds, it feels as if congesting the engine room, and breaking up play there, is an increasingly important part of tactical strategies.  

Decisive changes pay off

The only Premier League team to come back from 1-0 down to win a match so far this season (except for Manchester City at home to Ipswich Town) has been Bournemouth.

That amazing turnaround from losing 2-0 at Everton, coming back to win with three late goals, was sparked by Andoni Iroala’s positive second half changes.

Between the 65^th and 77^th minute the Spaniard made five substitutions (while changing to a bolder shape) and the fresh dynamism this provided, had a transformational effect on his team – and on the problems they caused the hosts.

Replacements Dango Outtara and Luis Sinisterra provided a goal and two assists between them, as Iraola’s clear and assertive messaging from the bench paid off.

The other standout change to provoke a dramatic uplift was from Eddie Howe away at his former club Bournemouth.

At 1-0 down he made four changes between 58^th and 69^th minutes, switching Anthony Gordon to the right wing, with substitute Harvey Barnes coming on, on the left.

Those two combined for the equaliser that earned them a point, as the much-improved Magpies began to assert themselves.

Goals and assists by substitutes MW1-3

With Aston Villa’s Jhon Duran and Brighton’s Simon Adingra (two goals each) leading the way, we have seen 18 goals and assists from substitutes already in 2024/25.

That is the second highest return after three rounds of matches, across the last seven seasons.

Head coaches and managers are seeing their key decisions and changes rewarded, which should empower them to continue being just as bold in the weeks and months ahead.

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