Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will Man Utd fall into Villa's midfield trap?
- Could Gravenberch help Liverpool end Palace jinx?
- Can Chelsea cope with Forest’s low block?
- Will Lopetegui enjoy home comfort at last?
- Can Leicester's left side avert Semenyo threat?
- How will Newcastle fare against rejuvenated Everton?
- Will direct Fulham take advantage of Rodri-less Man City?
- Can Wolves beat Brentford to avoid equalling winless run?
- Will Spurs make it five matches without victory for Brighton?
- Why Havertz is the player Southampton must fear most
Will Man Utd’s erratic pressing fall into Emery’s trap?
There were many things wrong with Manchester United’s widely-criticised 3-0 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, but of most relevance to the challenge of Aston Villa is the haphazard pressing that stretched United’s 4-2-4 lengthways.
As this average positions graphic below shows, Man Utd's forwards often pressed without back up, leaving the midfield with too much to do - which allowed Dejan Kulusevski to dominate.
If Erik ten Hag’s side play in a similar way at Villa Park then Unai Emery will lure them into a trap.
Villa are particularly adept at drawing teams onto them before evading the press and spinning behind, usually via Youri Tielemans’ line-splitting passes and the dribbling of Morgan Rogers.
Only four players have attempted more take-ons than Rogers’ 27, and it’s easy to imagine Villa’s in-form No 10 gliding through the gaps around Kobbie Mainoo and Manuel Ugarte.
Villa, buoyed by their 1-0 victory over Bayern Munich, will be confident of overcoming a dreadful record against Man Utd. They have won only one of their last 25 Premier League home matches against them. Coincidentally, that victory was Emery’s first game in charge, back in November 2022.
Can Gravenberch help Liverpool overcome bogey team Crystal Palace?
The weekend kicks off with a big test of Arne Slot’s revolution.
Kind fixtures have made it difficult to judge Liverpool’s season so far, but Crystal Palace are precisely the team to teach us whether the Reds' revamped midfield is as good as it looks.
Liverpool have won only one of their last four Premier League matches against Palace, most recently losing 1-0 at Anfield in April - when Oliver Glasner’s game plan was perfect.
His team were surprisingly aggressive on that occasion, harassing Liverpool’s midfield into making mistakes and preventing them from finding any sort of rhythm.
They misplaced 60 passes in the first half alone, a season-high for Liverpool, while Palace’s confrontational approach led to an Expected Goals (xG) of 2.0, the third-highest Liverpool have conceded across 2024.
Liverpool, then, will need their midfield at its composed best.
Ryan Gravenberch has drawn plaudits this season as the symbol of Slot’s calmer Dutch football: his total of 480 touches of the ball tops the charts among Premier League midfielders, as does his 18 progressive carries.
Palace will not give him room to breathe, which is why this is the first major hurdle for Slot. It’s the first time an opposition midfield will bite back.
How will Maresca’s free-scoring Chelsea cope with Forest’s low block?
Like Slot, Enzo Maresca faces a stern examination of his tactics and of the fast start his team have made.
Chelsea’s campaign has been all about quick transitions, a far cry from the chess-paced possession football we expected from him. Their 13 fast breaks is a competition-high, while they rank second for both through-balls and successful take-ons, with 20 and 57 respectively.
Is that by accident or design? Has Maresca adapted his approach to suit the players at his disposal, or are the players improvising when faced with wide-open opponents?
We are about to find out.
Ten of Chelsea’s 15 Premier League goals, and eight of Cole Palmer’s 10 goal involvements, came in just two matches against, Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Both were astonishingly open, encouraging - or even demanding - an end-to-end contest.
In direct contrast, Nottingham Forest will deploy a low block and challenge Chelsea to break them down, as they did in a 1-0 win at Anfield earlier this season.
In other words, the challenge facing Chelsea is completely different, and Maresca’s response will be telling.
Chelsea will either look to suffocate Forest, penning them in like a Pep Guardiola team, or, when Forest counter-attacks break down, they will bound forward on the counter-counter and risk stretching the contest.
The choice Maresca makes will illuminate whether Chelsea’s current tactical set-up is a long-term plan or a temporary happy accident.
Can Lopetegui avoid a fourth home defeat in a row?
Julen Lopetegui has endured a difficult start to life as West Ham United head coach.
On Saturday he could become the 12th manager to lose his first four home matches in charge of a Premier League club. Only one of the previous 11, Bryan Robson at West Bromwich Albion in 2004/05, did so in a season that didn’t end in relegation.
The biggest issue so far has been timidity. Opta’s stats for Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), which measures pressing intensity, show that West Ham have a total of 13.0, the fifth-highest in the division, they have allowed the third-most through-balls (17), while their 96 tackles attempted rank fourth-bottom.
Unfortunately for them, Ipswich Town, who have drawn four consecutive Premier League matches, are just the kind of feisty and combative side to take advantage of any further passivity in the West Ham team.
Lopetegui's first three home league matches have, however, been against three of last season’s top four - Villa, Liverpool and Man City.
Ipswich, then, is their first truly winnable home fixture - and an opportunity for Lopetegui to reset the narrative.
Will Semenyo be the latest player to expose Leicester’s left side?
Steve Cooper has quite a few defensive issues at the moment. Leicester have faced a division-high 114 shots this season, including a club record 34 in a single match at Arsenal last time out.
But there is one area in particular that needs attention, as Bukayo Saka highlighted in Arsenal’s 4-2 victory last weekend.
Leicester have conceded 42 per cent chances down their left flank, more than the right wing or through the centre.
Saka ran riot on that side, which should worry Leicester as they welcome an AFC Bournemouth side driven by right winger Antoine Semenyo.
Key: Green line = successful pass, yellow line = chance created, dashed red line = failed pass
Only Erling Haaland, with 31 shots, has had more than the 28 of Semenyo, who is also the only Bournemouth player to have scored more than once, with three goals so far.
Semenyo's importance to the team is further evidenced by his team-high eight completed dribbles, while his 34 touches in the opposition box is also more than any team-mate.
Are Newcastle really back in the hunt for Champions League football?
The obvious line is that Newcastle United are ready to challenge for UEFA Champions League football again.
After all, Eddie Howe’s side have won 11 points from their first six Premier League matches of the season, their most at this stage since 2011/12.
But closer inspection of their results reveals a slightly different picture. They squeezed past still-winless Southampton on the opening day, drew with bottom-half Bournemouth and lost 3-1 at Fulham before last weekend’s draw against Manchester City.
A visit to Goodison Park will illuminate things. Everton have picked up four points from their last two matches and, buoyed by a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace last weekend, will be hopeful of repeating their 3-0 win in this fixture last season.
It won’t be easy for Newcastle, and it’s by no means a must-win match, but Howe’s side need to grind out results in encounters like this if they are to finish above sides such as Villa, Chelsea and Spurs this season.
Can Smith Rowe and Pereira stop Man City reaching milestone?
Man City, unbeaten in 49 home matches in all competitions (if we ignore their Champions League defeat to Real Madrid in a penalty shootout in April), are hoping to become the fourth different English top-flight team to make it 50+, after Liverpool, Chelsea and Sunderland.
Usually, you would back them to do just that against Fulham, who remarkably have lost each of their last 16 matches against Man City in all competitions.
But the Rodri factor gives pause for thought.
Last weekend, Newcastle’s equaliser was created by a simple pass through midfield, where Mateo Kovacic was caught out of position, allowing Anthony Gordon to beat City’s high line.
Fulham are fast and direct just like Newcastle, ranking fourth in the Premier League for "direct attacks", with 27. They will surely target the same area.
Without a speedy No 9 like Gordon, presumably Adama Traore will make arcing runs from the right as Emile Smith Rowe and Andreas Pereira look to create in the pockets of space where Rodri used to be.
Working in tandem as No 8s, both playmakers have made strong starts to the season. Smith Rowe has three goal involvements in six matches, while Pereira has created 20 chances, the second-most in the Premier League.
Fulham, unbeaten in five matches, will feel confident they can follow Newcastle’s lead.
Will it be seventh time the charm for luckless Wolves?
There are still five Premier League clubs yet to win a match this season and bottom of the table, with one point, is Wolves.
They need a victory at Brentford on Saturday to avoid their longest winless start to a top-flight campaign since 2003/04 - and to avoid a miserable second international break.
Wolves host Man City in their first match back before travelling to Brighton. Fail to get three points at the Gtech Community Stadium and there is a very real possibility Wolves will still be winless after nine Premier League matches.
Then again, things might not be as bad as they seem.
For starters, the fixture computer has not looked favourably upon them. Wolves have already played three of last season’s top four plus rejuvenated Champions League hopefuls Chelsea and Newcastle.
More significantly, they have conceded 16 goals from an xG of just 9.8, the worst difference in the division (-6.2), suggesting they have been unlucky with the quality of opposition shots.
Wolves just haven’t had the rub of the green, an excuse that won’t garner sympathy for much longer.
This is a must-win encounter!
Will in-form Spurs extend Brighton’s winless run?
How quickly things change in football.
At the beginning of September it was Brighton, unbeaten after a 2-1 victory over Man Utd and a 1-1 draw at Arsenal, taking all the plaudits as Spurs, falling to a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle, looked to be stalling under Ange Postecoglou.
A month later their roles have reversed. Spurs have won five in a row in all competitions and their 3-0 win against United last weekend was arguably the best performance of the Postecoglou era. Brighton, meanwhile, are winless in four.
Form and momentum dictates an away success.
Certainly Brighton were far too vulnerable defensively in a 4-2 defeat against Chelsea, in which Palmer found far too much room to run riot.
A repeat of that performance opens them up to Kulusevski, who created nine chances at Old Trafford.
Will Havertz’s form make easy work of Southampton?
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 28 home league matches against Southampton (W19 D9) since a 1-0 defeat in November 1987. It would be a big surprise if Mikel Arteta’s side don’t get another win on Saturday.
The Gunners' 2-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Tuesday was just the latest example of their efficiency - and of Kai Havertz’s credentials as a goalscoring No 9.
Havertz has six goals in his last six home matches, his header against PSG his 21st goal involvement (14 goals and seven assists) since becoming Arsenal's first-choice No 9 in February.
But the bigger reason to back an Arsenal win is their formidable defensive record and Southampton’s league-low 4.4 per cent conversion rate.
A single Havertz goal would likely be enough.
