Analysis: Duran and Watkins are Emery's ideal dilemma

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 16.

Player analysis: Jhon Duran and Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)

Has Duran usurped Watkins as Villa’s top striker?

Scoring twice this week, and in all four of his starts this season in all competitions, the young Colombian is presenting a strong case for Unai Emery to consider.

Watkins has netted in two of his last three Premier League starts, so is hardly out of form himself.

This means Villa’s head coach is facing a difficult decision over who to start against Nottingham Forest this weekend - unless Watkins is ruled out, due to the "small injury" that prompted Emery to replace him with Duran at half-time in Tuesday's UEFA Champions League win over RB Leipzig.

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How do their numbers compare?

Goals are the currency that matter most to Watkins and Duran, so with 17 scored between them in all competitions, they have both made telling contributions.

England international Watkins has started 14 of Villa’s 15 Premier League matches though, with 20-year-old Duran used as an impact substitute in every contest up until last weekend’s 1-0 home win over Southampton.

He scored the only goal of that game, backing it up with a terrific long-range strike against RB Leipzig.

Duran's spectacular strike v RB Leipzig

Based on the raw numbers alone, Watkins’ ratio is good, especially in league matches where his scoring rate this season is comfortably better than one goal in every two matches.

But Duran has delivered special figures, scoring his 10 goals in all competitions at a rate of one every 79.2 minutes.

Duran v Watkins - Scoring rates compared

In total, there are 26 players who have scored at least five Premier League goals this season so far.

Of those, it is Duran who is scoring goals at a faster rate than anybody else. His outstanding exploits as a substitute account for most of his tally, but his prolific numbers must be making it very hard for Emery to leave him out of the starting line-up.

Villa have also scored goals at a faster rate with Duran on the pitch.

While 52.8 per cent of all Premier League goals this season have been scored in the second half, when Duran has played almost all of his minutes, Villa have been notably more menacing with him on the field.

Emery’s men have scored at a rate of one goal every 45.2 minutes when he is on the pitch, compared with 67.4 minutes when he is not.

Duran v Watkins - Conversion rates compared

Duran has featured for more than 30 minutes just twice in Premier League matches this season, but it would be no surprise if that situation changes very soon.

As the more clinical finisher of the two, Duran could not be doing any more to earn the trust of his manager. 

Who’s the quickest?

Watkins’ pace, movement and unselfish running are among his best traits, and he continues to shine in that department.

However, when you dig down into Duran’s physical data, it is he who now has the edge.

While it should be noted it is easier to run harder for short spells, Duran makes more sprints and covers more distance per 90 minutes.

He produces a greater number of runs into the penalty area and has also been clocked at a higher top speed than Watkins.

Duran v Watkins running statistics

Comparisons in general play

These two front men are not like-for-like in style, so as different types of centre forward, it must complicate Emery’s tactical thinking.

Watkins is a lower touch player who wants to spin in behind or make runs down the side of defenders.

His team-mate Duran is far more physical. Comfortable engaging in direct contact with his markers, Duran will back in and look to hold the ball, flick it on, or win his duels.

Dropping deeper than Watkins to get involved in this manner, Duran has far more regular involvements in open play.

Duran v Watkins general play

Duran’s winning goal against Southampton at Villa Park last weekend was a prime example of how his muscular approach can make a difference.

How Duran scored v Southampton

Second favourite to get on the end of a long, clipped pass, Duran showed great persistence and determination to overpower two Saints defenders, coming away from the duel with a clear run on goal.

The end product...

What he maybe lacks in the guile and finesse of Watkins, Duran makes up for with his robust physicality.

Where Duran and Watkins operate

Watkins, as he always has done, naturally leans towards making runs down the left, with a penchant for cutting in on his stronger right foot.

On the flip side, Duran is more inclined to get involved down the middle, or to the right of centre where he can move inside on to his left.

Watkins is more of a penalty-box striker, with Duran dropping between the lines to link play in close proximity to his midfield.

The below event-zone graphic charts their contributions in each part of the pitch. It is a useful guide to these differing involvements and suggests that they could play together in a pair.

Emery has so far resisted that temptation, reserving it for brief periods only.

Duran (left) and Watkins' (right) event zones

Figures denote no. events in different parts of the pitch. Blue-shaded areas indicate where players are most active.

Expect the unexpected

One other advantage Duran holds over Watkins is his ability to find the back of the net from distance.

Since the start of last season Duran has scored seven goals from outside the box, second only to the eight of Phil Foden, the only Premier League player with more in that period.

Duran's stunning 30-yard strike against Everton - the Guinness Goal of the Month for September - showcased how venomous his lethal left boot can be.

In tight matches where Villa are crying out for a moment of inspiration, Duran has been a valuable player for the team.

Who fits the fixtures best?

Forest’s low-possession, deep-block style may limit space for Watkins to run into, meaning this Matchweek 16 encounter at the City Ground could be better suited to Duran.

The in-form Duran is capable of shooting accurately from long range, and enjoys tussling with centre-backs, so it feels like a good moment to start him - even if Watkins is passed fit and available.

Both strikers have caused Villa's Matchweek 17 opponents, Manchester City, problems in recent meetings - Duran scored at the Etihad Stadium last season - so that will be a hard call .

But having netted three goals in his last three starts against Newcastle United, Watkins will be hopeful of featuring against the Magpies on Boxing Day in Matchweek 18.

Aston Villa

17:30 Sat 14 Dec NFO (A) 12:30 Sat 21 Dec MCI (H) 15:00 Thu 26 Dec NEW (A) 19:45 Mon 30 Dec BHA (H) 15:00 Sat 04 Jan LEI (H)

Aston Villa

17:30 Sat 14 Dec NFO (A) 12:30 Sat 21 Dec MCI (H) 15:00 Thu 26 Dec NEW (A) 19:45 Mon 30 Dec BHA (H) 15:00 Sat 04 Jan LEI (H)

Emery’s selection dilemma will occupy his mind greatly in the coming weeks, but it is a problem he will welcome.

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