Analysis: How can Forest do the double over Liverpool?

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics, and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 21.

Match analysis: Nottingham Forest v Liverpool

Nuno Espirito Santo is the only head coach who has outwitted Arne Slot so far this season in the Premier League, so his tactical rematch with Liverpool’s astute Dutchman promises to be fascinating.

NFO

20:00

LIV

close

TV Info - Broadcasters

Forest’s stunning 1-0 success at Anfield back in September set them on their way to a mightily impressive 40-point haul after 20 matches.

Nuno’s side are capable of providing the leaders with another stern examination; they come into Tuesday night’s encounter having won seven matches in a row in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in their last five.

How did Forest win at Anfield?

There were two distinct parts to Nuno’s game plan when they last met.

He initially set Forest up in a very narrow 4-5-1 formation, using a quintet of industrious central midfielders.

Those five worked exceptionally hard to stifle Liverpool, blocking up spaces down the spine and forcing Liverpool to move the ball wide.

Forest’s defensive chalkboard from the first half of that encounter shows how they engaged physically when the ball went wide, and how they backed themselves to defend their own box.

Early in the second period, Nuno unleashed his plan B, and it worked in spectacular fashion.

He was wary that his players would tire and so reverted to a lower 4-2-3-1 block early in the second half that sat deeper and more passively.

In effect he brought Liverpool onto them, especially in central areas, with a view to hurting them in the spaces they left behind in the full-back areas.

He did this by introducing flying wingers Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga, who instantly provided the width, pace and ball-carrying qualities that enabled Forest to carry a greater attacking threat.

Their winning goal in the 72nd minute involved both wide men, with Hudson-Odoi converting one of the most eye-catching counter-attacks of the season.

Hudson-Odoi's winner at Anfield

This strike was exactly the type of moment the Portuguese head coach had envisaged.

Nuno’s approach was tactically brilliant as they deservedly won the game by stunting Liverpool’s flow, before picking them off on the break.

Will he try to replicate it on Tuesday night?

How Forest’s style of play works

In essence, Forest are masters at soaking up pressure before hitting opponents on the counter.

Their possession average is the lowest of all 20 top-flight sides, but they defend in a very resolute, assured manner.

A 4-2-3-1 shape coupled with great organisation, discipline and aggression, means Nuno’s side are terrific at forcing regains.

From those turnovers, they attack at speed, with Liverpool and Chelsea the only sides to have produced more shots from fast breaks.

Forest's defensive and attacking stats 24/25

The importance of Hudson-Odoi

Pre-match there is much debate over whether Slot will select Trent Alexander-Arnold or Conor Bradley as Liverpool's right-back at the City Ground.

Both men were on the pitch when Hudson-Odoi scored in the reverse fixture, with the former Chelsea winger cutting inside Bradley to score.

That afternoon, Nuno did appear to target Liverpool’s right side – as shown in the below map of their attacking thirds in the second half.

However, that may not have been a specific tactic for Anfield because when you assess the source of Forest’s attacks over the course of the campaign, it shows how they habitually launch left-wing raids via Hudson-Odoi.

While Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White are both hugely important cogs in Forest's counter-attacking wheel, it is their 24-year-old left winger who tends to do the most damage on the back of ball carries.

Whoever gets the nod to start at right-back for Liverpool is sure to be tested.

Forest players' shots and key passes after ball carries

Key duel one: Ola Aina v Cody Gakpo

Liverpool’s left-sided forward Cody Gakpo is in scintillating form, scoring five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances.

He is the man most likely to come up against one of the division’s most reliable right-backs this term, Ola Aina.

At Anfield, the 28-year-old Forest full-back pocketed Luis Diaz for an hour before shackling Gakpo with ease for the final 30 minutes.

Neither man made a key pass, and they had just one shot between them.

Aina likes to get forward and will seek to push Gakpo back when opportunities present themselves, but it is his defending which has stood out most.

For example, no top-flight defender has regained possession more inside their own defensive third.

PL defenders most possession won 24/25

Key duel two: Elliot Anderson v Alexis Mac Allister

Liverpool’s World Cup-winning star Alexis Mac Allister is one of the division’s strongest all-round central midfielders, but he will come face-to-face with an emerging talent who is cut from a similar cloth.

Elliot Anderson, used in several different positions by his manager this term, has become undroppable in recent months, shining as a box-to-box presence in Forest’s midfield.

He gets forward to create chances (27) and assists (5), and is also the most prolific passer among the midfielders in Nuno's squad.

Yet, on a wider level, Anderson is also one of the division's best midfielders out of possession, winning the ball back on a frequent basis.

Anderson's defensive stats 24/25

If Anderson can replicate the standards he set during a barnstorming individual display at home to Aston Villa in early December, Mac Allister and co will not find it easy to contain him.

In that 2-1 win at the City Ground, Anderson won 13 duels and five tackles, made eight ball recoveries, five dribbles and created four chances, including a terrific assist for Elanga’s winning goal.

Anderson's assist for Elanga v Villa

Does Slot select Diaz or Jota up front?

As well as his selection call at right-back, Slot also has a big decision to make for his central striker.

Diaz was sensational when scoring twice in a 6-3 win at Tottenham Hotspur, and he also shone in Liverpool’s 5-0 success at West Ham United.

The Colombian has scored eight goals this season, but with Diogo Jota (four goals in seven starts) now fully fit, there is competition for a start in that role.

Statistically, there is very little between the two front men, but it is Diaz who holds the edge.

Diaz and Jota's attacking stats 24/25

Up against a deep-lying defence, offering very little space for runs in behind, Slot may take the view that this contest suits Jota better, as the more natural centre-forward.

But it will be hard to leave Diaz out, especially after such influential displays on the road in recent weeks.

Liverpool have only faced two sides away from Anfield that are currently placed in the top half of the table - Arsenal and Newcastle United - and were held to draws by both of them.

Beating an in-form Forest would give the leaders a huge boost in their pursuit of the title, but achieving that will be far from easy.