Football writer Alex Keble analyses Wednesday's UEFA Champions League matches for Premier League clubs.
Man City’s disastrous collapse suggests upturn was a mirage
Paris Saint-Germain 4-2 Manchester City
The nightmare scenario was supposed to be defeat for Man City and their Champions League hopes left dangling by a thread.
But as the rain poured down onto a dumbstruck Pep Guardiola, he must have been wondering how on earth his team had conspired to make things even worse than that.
Man City lost despite being two goals up at the Parc des Princes, doing so for the first time since May 2021 to make it nine matches in all competitions this season in which Guardiola’s side have failed to see out a winning position.
Just when Man City looked to be overcoming their woeful recent run in 2024/25, they are swept back up in the storm.
PSG were ruthless and deserve credit for their Bradley Barcola-inspired comeback, but this was another case of poor City defending and a passive, Rodri-less midfield being carved open almost at will.
Man City held their lowest possession share of the season (37 per cent) and conceded their second-highest Expected Goals total (3.43).
It wasn’t exactly a smash-and-grab win for the hosts, who left Man City on eight points from seven matches and two points outside the playoffs.
Guardiola’s side now require victory at home to Club Brugge next Wednesday to stand a chance of making it through, although that is hardly the only problem they face after yet another bruising evening.
City’s defence looked shaky throughout, but it was a particularly worrying to see makeshift right-back Matheus Nunes repeatedly beaten by Barcola – most notably ahead of PSG’s first goal – on the day that Kyle Walker’s move to AC Milan reportedly took a decisive step forward.
Defensive improvements seem a must to save their season.
Arsenal find solace in Champions League once again
Arsenal 3-0 Dinamo Zagreb
Man City’s woes continue seamlessly from Premier League to Champions League, whereas for Arsenal, European competition has soothed their domestic wounds.
For the third time this season, Arsenal secured a Champions League victory immediately after dropping Premier League points. This one was surely the most straightforward of the lot.
Declan Rice’s goal after 104 seconds – their fastest in the competition since November 2014 – set Arsenal on the path to a simple victory and another clean sheet.
They are yet to concede a goal from open play in the Champions League and have let in just two overall from seven matches, compared with five from the first seven of 2023/24.
Better still, they are making this year’s league phase look easy, lightening the mood at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal are now almost certain not to need a playoff round, taking the pressure off their last midweek match before potential warm-weather training during the FA Cup fourth-round weekend.
After the disappointment of the draw against Aston Villa, Arsenal look revitalised, at ease, and ready for a refreshing break.
What can stop Arsenal’s last-16 hopes?
Data specialists Opta have said that Arsenal are 100 per cent certain of a passage to the last 16 of the Champions League.
But while it is not in fact guaranteed, it would require an unlikely series of unfortunate events in the final round of the league phase on 29 January to deny Arsenal an all-important midweek break.
Here is everything that would need to happen to force Arsenal into the playoff round.
- Arsenal lose at Girona
- Inter Milan beat Monaco or draw, OR Monaco win and make up a goal difference of nine to Arsenal
- Atletico Madrid beat RB Salzburg
- AC Milan beat Dinamo Zagreb
- Atalanta beat Barcelona
- Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Prague and make up a goal difference of six to Arsenal
- One of Villa/Feyenoord/Lille/Brest win and make up a goal difference of 7-10 dependent on the team winning