Liverpool extended their lead at the top of the Premier League for the second consecutive match as a controlled 2-0 win over Newcastle United - coupled with Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest - sent Arne Slot's men 13 points clear on Wednesday night.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
28 | +40 | 67 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
27 | +28 | 54 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
27 | +11 | 48 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
27 | +16 | 47 |
Arguably, Liverpool's toughest run of matches is now behind them. The Reds have just emerged from a spell where they had to play five league games in 15 days, all against difficult opponents, and they ended up unbeaten during that run.
As well as claiming wins over their fellow EFL Cup finalists Newcastle and the reigning champions Man City, they also overcame a Matheus Cunha-inspired Wolverhampton Wanderers side fighting to stay in the top flight. Away trips to Everton - in the last Merseyside derby to be played at Goodison Park - and Aston Villa looked awkward too, but Liverpool earned 2-2 draws in both matches.
Liverpool and Arsenal's last five PL matches
Only once before has a team trailed by 13 points and gone on to win the title. Encouragingly for Arsenal, they were the club who did it, in 1997/98.
However, the Gunners still had 19 matches to play in that season, when they overhauled Manchester United, whereas this time around they only have 11 matches remaining.
As it would take an unprecedented turnaround - a 13-point swing over 11 matches - for Liverpool not to win the title, we are looking at the permutations of how and when they could be confirmed as Premier League champions.
What's the earliest Liverpool can win the title?
Due to their involvement in the EFL Cup final on 16 March, and then the March international break, Liverpool will only play one Premier League match next month - at home to Southampton - so they cannot be confirmed as champions until April at the earliest.
To be exact, if results go their way, the earliest they can confirm the title is on the weekend of 5/6 April, with 78 points, when they visit Fulham. But for that to happen, they would need to win all of their next three matches, culminating in the one at Craven Cottage, and Arsenal would have to lose their next four.
Nottingham Forest, whose maximum points tally is now 81, Manchester City (80) and Chelsea (79) would also need to drop points before then.
If Liverpool's lead remains at 13 points, they would be confirmed as champions on the weekend of 26/27 April, when they host Tottenham Hotspur, given there would only be four rounds of Premier League fixtures left.
Should Liverpool's lead be reduced to 10 points, it would delay their title until the final month of the season; they could win it when they travel to Chelsea on the weekend of 3/4 May.
Liverpool host Arsenal the following weekend, 10/11 May, with only two further fixtures to follow. If, by then, Slot's side are only seven points clear at kick-off, a draw or a win would see them secure the title that day - assuming their visitors are the only team still able to overtake them.
What's the earliest any team have won the title?
There are two measures here - the date in the calendar and the number of matches played.
Liverpool hold the record for the fewest number of matches needed to win the Premier League title - they were crowned champions after their 31st fixture in the 2019/20 season.
They would surely have held the other record had that campaign not been paused from March until June due to the COVID-19 pandemic; Liverpool eventually won the title on 25 June 2020.
Manchester United therefore still hold the record for the earliest date, with their 2000/01 title being confirmed on 14 April 2001.
To beat their own record of 31 matches, Liverpool would need the perfect scenario outlined above to unfold, as their trip to Fulham on the weekend of 5/6 April is their 30th fixture. If they were to equal their record, it would mean becoming champions on the weekend of 12/13 April, at home to West Ham United.
Either of those outcomes would mean Liverpool breaking Man Utd's record as the Premier League's earliest title-winners by date.
What do Arsenal need to do to catch Liverpool?
While Arsenal are 13 points behind Liverpool, they do have a match in hand. If they win that, at home to Chelsea on 16 March, the gap could be reduced to 10 points, depending on the two teams' next results, when Liverpool host Southampton and Arsenal visit Man Utd.
Their objective, albeit dependent on the leaders losing and drawing matches in the meantime, is to be no more than nine points behind Liverpool when the sides meet on the weekend of 10/11 May.
If Arsenal then won at Anfield for the first time since September 2012 - a prospect that would be improved if Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are back from injury, as Arteta has suggested - they could go on to win the title if results in the final two rounds of matches also go their way.
Remaining Premier League fixtures
| Date | Liverpool | Arsenal |
| 8/9 March | Southampton (H) | Man Utd (A) |
|---|---|---|
| 16 March | Chelsea (H) | |
| 1/2 April | Everton (H) | Fulham (H) |
| 5 April | Fulham (A) | Everton (A) |
| 12 April | West Ham (H) | Brentford (H) |
| 19 April | Leicester (A) | Ipswich (A) |
| 26 April | Spurs (H) | Crystal Palace (H) |
| 3 May | Chelsea (A) | Bournemouth (H) |
| 10 May | Arsenal (H) | Liverpool (A) |
| 18 May | Brighton (A) | Newcastle (H) |
| 25 May | Crystal Palace (H) | Southampton (A) |
What are the biggest points deficits overturned in Premier League history?
Never before has a team had a 13-point lead at the top at this stage of a season and failed to win the title. But a 13-point advantage HAS been overturned once before in a title race - the aforementioned achievement of Arsenal in 1997/98, Arsene Wenger's first full season as their manager.
Man Utd were that many points clear at the end of December, and were still leading Arsenal by 12 points in February. However, the Gunners produced an incredible run of 10 consecutive wins - the second of which was a 1-0 victory over Man Utd at Old Trafford - and were confirmed as champions on 3 May with two matches to spare.
Of course, if Arsenal win their match in hand over Liverpool, they could be 10 points behind them. A gap of 10 or more points has been overturned seven times in Premier League history; as well as Arsenal's record 13-point overhaul, there have been 12-point gaps closed by Man Utd in 1992/93 (to Norwich City) and 1995/96 (Newcastle) and 10-point leads overcome by Man Utd in 1996/97 (Liverpool), 2002/03 (Arsenal) and 2008/09 (Liverpool) and Manchester City in 2018/19 (Liverpool).
Liverpool have therefore lost three title races after leading the Premier League by 10+ points. Rest assured they will be doing everything to stay comfortably ahead of Arsenal and avoid a fourth.
