Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the midweek fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Nottingham Forest add to Man City's problems?
- Liverpool looking to exploit another off-form side
- Can Cunha’s brilliant away form add to Dyche's issues?
- Chelsea striker Jackson aims to increase Saints' concerns
- Will impressive Amad hamper Arsenal's title-race resurgence?
- Villa hope to spark their season against travel-sick Brentford
- Brighton eye setback response at Fulham
- Can AFC Bournemouth jump in front of Spurs?
Will counter-attacking Forest continue City’s woes?
In ordinary times, Manchester City would barely have to move out of second gear to beat Nottingham Forest at home.
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But these are not ordinary times. In fact, a win for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side would lift them above Man City in the Premier League table.
It could happen. Forest rank fourth in the Premier League for shots from fast breaks, reflecting the speed with which they can hit teams on the counter-attack after absorbing pressure, while Man City have conceded the highest Expected Goals (xG) of 4.0 from fast breaks.
That statistical mismatch will encourage Forest supporters, as will the manner of Man City’s first-half performance against Liverpool.
Forest were successfully pinned by a hard-pressing Arsenal in a recent 3-0 defeat, but Man City are not on that level right now; they were passive at Anfield, allowing Liverpool players the time to pick their passes over the top of the defence.
The most prominent example was Trent Alexander-Arnold’s long ball over the top for Mohamed Salah that led to the opener. As you can see in the image below, nobody in a City shirt got close to the Liverpool right-back.
Forest will target Man City in exactly the same way, looking to launch attacks with long balls to Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga. It might just work.
Will Liverpool again profit from their opposition's poor form?
Liverpool have been almost immaculate in the Premier League this season and nobody can deny that performances under Arne Slot have earned them their nine-point lead at the summit.
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But to lift titles and string winning runs together you need a little luck, too, and the leaders have arguably been fortunate with the timing of their bigger fixtures.
Liverpool have played five of last year’s top eight so far, and each time their opponents - Man City, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Manchester United - had either lost or drawn their preceding Premier League match.
Brighton & Hove Albion, too, had just drawn with Wolverhampton Wanderers before visiting Anfield at the start of November, and now Newcastle United - Liverpool’s sixth opponents from last season's top eight - face the leaders after a 1-1 draw with Palace and 2-0 defeat to West Ham United.
The Magpies have also lost two of their last three home Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 20, and scored just once in those three matches.
Liverpool are gliding through the 2024/25 season partly because they’re catching opponents at the trough of a wave. Newcastle are just the latest.
Can Cunha’s brilliant away form add to Everton’s issues?
Throughout a difficult campaign so far, one thing Sean Dyche’s side consistently had going for them was a good defensive record – until Sunday.
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Their 4-0 defeat to Man Utd was defined by unforced defensive errors and three goals conceded on the break, which makes them newly vulnerable to the kind of counter-attacking football coached by Wolves head coach Gary O’Neil.
Wolves have scored in every single Premier League match since their 2-0 defeat to Arsenal on the opening weekend and have netted at least two in each of the last five, thanks in no small part to the form of Matheus Cunha.
Cunha has scored in each of his last four away appearances and, with 10 goal contributions, is responsible for almost 50 per cent of Wolves’ total. Many of these are the endpoint to a counter-attack.
However, Everton have kept a clean sheet in 44 per cent of their Premier League matches under Dyche at Goodison Park (15/34).
They are considerably better on home soil. Cunha will need to be at his very best to break the deadlock.
Will ruthless Jackson pounce on more Saints errors?
Southampton overcame a supposed mismatch last Friday when they salvaged a draw against high-flying Brighton but the visit of Chelsea looks a bridge too far.
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That’s because Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes, and Tyler Dibling are all suspended, damaging the spine of Russell Martin’s team.
Chelsea, and Nicolas Jackson in particular, will expect to pounce.
Saints have made eight errors leading to goals, the most in the division, and their dangerous passing out from defence will be targeted by a team who press hard and move in straight lines when the ball is won back.
Quick breaks after a turnover are common under Enzo Maresca, with Cole Palmer regularly feeding Jackson, particularly away from home.
Jackson has eight goal contributions in his last eight away Premier League appearances, while Chelsea have won six of their last eight away matches in the competition.
Chelsea are ruthless, Southampton error-prone. Jackson will be feeling confident.
Can Amad-led breaks take the game to Arsenal?
In the first two-and-a-half matches since Martin Odegaard’s return, Arsenal have scored 13 goals. He has joined the dots back together and woken up the Gunners, but the visit of Man Utd is arguably the first real test.
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Having said that, Man Utd’s 4-0 victory over Everton was “far from perfect,” to use Ruben Amorim’s tactful assessment of a performance that left a lot to be desired in an open and stringy first half.
Arsenal would expect to capitalise on a similar showing at home, although the speed of United’s counter-attacks in the second 45 against Everton give pause for thought.
Amad has taken to the right wing-back role like a duck to water, assisting twice against Everton to take his total to three in two Premier League matches under Amorim.
He could be a threat to Riccardo Calafiori and something for Arsenal to worry about should they pin Man Utd deep inside their own half.
With time, Amorim will want his team to dominate matches, but for now he is likely to play reactively, spring-loading counter-attacks fed through Amad to Marcus Rashford.
Arsenal could get caught.
Can Bees end away woes and expose Villa's issues?
Villa are close to crisis point: no wins in seven in all competitions, four blanks in the last five matches, and all the way down in 12th after a 3-0 defeat to Chelsea.
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They desperately need a win to restore some confidence as the busy winter period begins, and there is reason to believe they can get it on Wednesday.
Despite their poor form Villa have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League home matches, losing 2-0 to Arsenal, while Brentford have won one point on the road, the joint-fewest.
Of course, Villa’s increasingly shaky defence - made worse by an injury to goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez - looks vulnerable to Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, and last weekend’s hat-trick hero Kevin Schade, but if Unai Emery’s side start strongly, they have a real opportunity to capitalise on Brentford’s timidity away from home.
This is a defining week for Villa, who welcome bottom club Southampton to Villa Park on Saturday.
Win both matches and the wobble will be forgotten about. Fail to win either and their problems become substantially worse.
Can Brighton cast aside their setback?
It feels petty to highlight a problem with Brighton & Hove Albion at the moment, but if they are to move to the next level and become serious contenders for a UEFA Champions League spot, Fabian Hurzeler’s side need to get better at beating clubs who sit deep.
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Their draw with Southampton followed a trend. Brighton have beaten Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham Hotspur, and Newcastle this season - but have failed to beat Ipswich, Forest, Wolves and Southampton.
They have a chance to set things right this month.
Fulham, who will be conservative in their approach, are Brighton's first opponents in a five-match run of Premier League matches against the kind of clubs who will restrict space and hope to counter-attack against Hurzeler’s high line.
Average possession of Brighton's next five opponents
| Opponent | Average possession |
| Fulham (A) | 53.6% |
|---|---|
| Leicester (A) | 45.7% |
| Crystal Palace (H) | 44.8% |
| West Ham (A) | 45.2% |
| Brentford (H) | 47.5% |
Fulham might look like an anomaly in the above table, averaging 53.6 per cent possession this season, but Marco Silva’s side held 29 per cent in a 1-1 draw at Brighton last season and 30 per cent in the 3-0 victory against them at Craven Cottage.
They are the first - and toughest - test of Hurzeler’s tactical strategy when meeting low blocks this month.
If Brighton don’t pass it, opponents will take note and double down.
Can Bournemouth leapfrog Spurs to trigger huge shift?
While the top half of the Premier League remains as compressed as it is, it’s difficult to pick out who is actually doing well and who isn’t.
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Everything can change with a single result, and we might see one of the biggest shifts of the season if AFC Bournemouth can beat Spurs at the Vitality Stadium.
Spurs have won at both Manchester clubs but have only seven points from their six away matches, while Bournemouth have won three of their last four Premier League home matches.
Andoni Iraola’s team have a good chance, then, of getting three points - and shooting up the table.
By Thursday night, Spurs could conceivably have dropped from seventh at the start of the week to 12th. Meanwhile, if results elsewhere go their way, Bournemouth could rise all the way from 13th to seventh.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
Man City
MCI
|
18 | +4 | 28 |
| 8 |
Fulham
FUL
|
18 | +3 | 28 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
18 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 |
Brighton
BHA
|
17 | +1 | 25 |
| 11 |
Spurs
TOT
|
18 | +13 | 23 |
| 12 |
Brentford
BRE
|
17 | 0 | 23 |
| 13 |
West Ham
WHU
|
18 | -7 | 23 |
