The Scout delves into the data as managers rush to bring in Kevin De Bruyne (£9.5m) for Gameweek 36 of Fantasy Premier League.
A visit to relegated Southampton has made Manchester City’s playmaker the top transfer target in Fantasy ahead of Saturday’s 13:30 BST deadline.
He has amassed over 173,000 transfers in after producing 11 points against Wolverhampton Wanderers, his second double-figure haul in four matches.
Notably, De Bruyne has been named in the Man City first XI in each of their last five matches – his longest run of starts in an injury-hit campaign – as Pep Guardiola looks to steer his side to a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Man City also have two favourable fixtures following their match at Southampton, hosting AFC Bournemouth then visiting Fulham on the final day of the season.
Man City's remaining matches
| GW | Opp. | FDR |
| 36 | Southampton (A) | 1 |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Bournemouth (H) | 3 |
| 38 | Fulham (A) | 3 |
How De Bruyne compares with his team-mates
De Bruyne’s recent run of starts is reflected by his output in Fantasy. Playing in a more central, advanced role in the absence of Erling Haaland (£14.8m), he is Man City’s top-scoring player over their last five matches, earning 31 points thanks to two goals, an assist and five bonus points.
A look at the underlying statistics helps to highlight his huge potential for both goals and assists.
Certainly, there's no surprise to learn that he was their top creator over those five matches, supplying his team-mates with 10 scoring opportunities.
The Belgian also boasted a fair goal threat, with his totals of 12 shots and seven shots in the box placing second among team-mates.
When it comes to big chances, or situations where the player is expected to score, De Bruyne has clearly profited from a recent change of position.
Indeed, both his totals of four big chances and three big chances created were identical to Omar Marmoush (£7.6m) in that period.
De Bruyne's attacking stats, last five matches
| Statistic | Total | Man City rank |
| Shots | 12 | 2nd |
|---|---|---|
| Shots in box | 7 | 2nd |
| Chances created | 10 | 1st |
| Big chance involvement | 7 | =1st |
Why De Bruyne's goal threat has improved
By assessing De Bruyne's recent showings with his numbers from Gameweek 30, it's easy to see a major improvement in goal threat.
In terms of minutes per shot, there's little difference between the two time frames in the table below - he's averaging 35.8 minutes per shot, compared with 30.8 minutes beforehand.
However, De Bruyne is clearly becoming far more involved in and around the opposition penalty area - indeed, seven of his 21 shots in the box all season have come from Gameweek 31 onwards.
The upturn in big chances is particularly encouraging here - the Belgian had a mere three of them over the opening 30 Gameweeks.
Due to that improvement in quality of scoring chances, De Bruyne's goal conversion rate has jumped from 5.4 per cent to 16.7 per cent.
De Bruyne season comparison
| Statistic | GW1-30 | GW31-35 |
| Mins/shot | 30.8 | 35.8 |
|---|---|---|
| Shots in box | 14 | 7 |
| Big chances | 3 | 4 |
| Goal conversion | 5.4% | 16.7% |
So, should managers buy De Bruyne?
When weighing up the De Bruyne decision, there are two caveats which manager should also consider.
Although Haaland didn’t feature against Wolves, his appearance on the bench following injury suggests it’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the starting XI. This could force a change of tactics by Guardiola, and a change of role for De Bruyne.
Furthermore, Man City’s FA Cup final against Crystal Palace comes three days before their Gameweek 37 encounter with Bournemouth, which may also persuade Guardiola to rotate.
Ultimately, though, it would be somewhat surprising if Guardiola now took De Bruyne out of his line-up, given both the player’s form and the club’s need to secure a top-five finish.
Despite the recent influx of new owners, the Belgian remains a great differential, with an ownership of just 10 per cent in Fantasy.
With the fixtures also in his favour, De Bruyne looks a very timely acquisition for managers looking to freshen up their sides for the run-in.