With the EFL Championship playoffs starting on Thursday, Matt Furniss of Opta Analyst assesses the four clubs who are aiming to follow Leeds United and Burnley by being promoted to the Premier League for next season.
Bristol City v Sheffield United. Coventry City v Sunderland. Four teams. Two ties. The aim: to reach the playoff final on 24 May - and ultimately the promised land of the Premier League.
Championship playoff semi-finals
Thursday 8 May, 20:00 BST: Bristol City v Sheff Utd (first leg)
Friday 9 May, 20:00 BST: Coventry v Sunderland (first leg)
Monday 12 May, 20:00 BST: Sheff Utd v Bristol City (second leg)
Tuesday 13 May, 20:00 BST: Sunderland v Coventry (second leg)
So let's look at the contenders to assess who will win the EFL Championship playoffs in 2024/25.
Sheffield United
This season, Sheff Utd became just the third side in the history of the second tier to win as many as 90 points yet fail to get automatically promoted, after only Sunderland in 1997/98 and Leeds last season.
They will have been thoroughly disappointed to have finished outside the top two places this season, though. Only the divisional champions Leeds United (156) spent more days inside the automatic promotion spots than Sheff Utd (143), with the Blades being in there for 55 days more than Burnley, who finished second and were therefore also promoted.
The major difference is that while Leeds were fantastic in attack – their total of 95 goals scored was the highest in the Championship – and Burnley were astonishingly good in defence, conceding a record-low 16 goals in 46 matches, Sheff Utd weren’t exceptional at either end of the pitch.
They do have one of the Championship’s best goalkeepers in Michael Cooper, however. He prevented the fifth-most goals among goalkeepers with 2,000+ minutes in the competition (6.7) based on Opta’s Expected Goals on target (xGOT) model.
Their failure to finish inside the top two could prove costly if history repeats itself this season. Sheff Utd have played a part in the Championship playoffs on five previous occasions and never won promotion via them, losing in the final a joint-record three times and in the semi-finals twice more.
Sheff Utd's Championship playoff history
| Round exit details | Season |
| Lost final v Crystal Palace | 1996/97 |
|---|---|
| Lost semi-final v Sunderland | 1997/98 |
| Lost final v Wolves | 2002/03 |
| Lost final v Burnley | 2008/09 |
| Lost semi-final v Nott'm Forest | 2021/22 |
The good news for Sheff Utd is that the team finishing the regular season in third place has both reached the final (16 times) and won promotion via the playoffs to the Premier League (nine times) more than any other league position since the Championship rebrand in 2004/05.
A lack of an out-and-out goalscorer may hinder Sheff Utd in the playoffs this season, with only Tyrese Campbell (10 goals) reaching double figures for them in the league.
It wasn’t as if goals were shared around the side too much either, with only Stoke City (13) and Leeds (14) having fewer players score for them in the Championship this season, excluding own goals.
Gustavo Hamer has been Sheff Utd's leading creator with seven assists, while ranking among the top-10 chance creators in open-play in the Championship this season (54).
Hamer scored the goal that sent his former club Coventry City to the 2022/23 playoff final, in a semi-final win over Middlesbrough, and he also found the net in the final against Luton Town, a match they eventually lost on penalties.
Hamer's creative stats 24/25
Sunderland
Across the four Championship playoff contenders this season, Sunderland are the team to have played the most matches in the Premier League.
In fact, their tally of 608 games is 18 more than the other three sides combined (Coventry: 354, Sheff Utd: 236, Bristol City: 0).
Sunderland spent the most days inside the top six places of the Championship table this season (266), while 100 of those were spent in the top two automatic promotion spots – 12 more than Burnley (88), who eventually finished second.
For the third successive Championship season, Sunderland have had the youngest average starting XI in the competition - this time it was 23 years, 316 days old.
Their two youngest regulars, 17-year-old Chris Rigg and 19-year-old Jobe Bellingham, have had particularly strong seasons and clearly have bright futures ahead of them.
Their main goal threat in 2024/25 has been forward Wilson Isidor, who scored 12 goals across 43 matches. However, the 24-year-old struggled with his form in the latter stages of the regular season, failing to score in each of his last 13 Championship appearances (776 minutes on the pitch) despite attempting 23 shots worth 2.8 Expected Goals (xG).
Isidor's stats first 30 matches v last 13 matches (scroll right)
Sunderland will be hoping none of their playoff matches go to a penalty shootout. They were awarded five penalties in the Championship this season but missed a league-high four of them. They have also lost both of their previous playoff matches that have gone to penalties – the 2003/04 semi-final versus Crystal Palace and the final against Charlton Athletic back in May 1998.
Many have said form goes out of the window when it comes to playoff games, and that’s a statement which Sunderland will hope rings true. Admittedly, they secured a playoff position relatively early, but they still lost each of their final five matches of the season in the Championship. No team in EFL history has gone into the playoffs in any tier with such a long run of defeats.
Coventry City
Eyebrows were raised when Coventry sacked long-term manager Mark Robins in November and replaced him with Frank Lampard, but it’s hard to argue now that that was a bad decision.
The Sky Blues were in 17th place after 14 matches and level on points with Plymouth Argyle in the relegation zone when Robins was dismissed. However, since Lampard took over on 28 November, Coventry have won 52 points from their 29 games, with only Leeds (67), Burnley (65) and Sheff Utd (55) picking up more in that time.
That record has taken them into the playoffs, sealing their place with a 2-0 win over Middlesbrough on the final day to set up a semi-final against out-of-form Sunderland.
It should be noted that the team’s underlying numbers with Robins still at the club suggested a turnaround was imminent. Despite being 17th at the time, Coventry had the fourth-best xG and the seventh-lowest Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the Championship. It took a managerial change to turn those numbers into results, though, and few can question the impressive impact Lampard has had since arriving.
In the time since the former Chelsea and Everton boss took charge, only Leeds (64) and Burnley (48) have scored more than Coventry’s 42 goals, while only the champions (61.9) have a higher xG than the Sky Blues' (46.5) in that time.
They will perhaps need to shore up a bit at the back, though. Coventry conceded 58 league goals this season, with only 11 teams conceding more. Their total is the worst of all four playoff participants.
Coventry have spread out the goals they have scored, with only Haji Wright (12) reaching double figures in the Championship this season. Jack Rudoni has scored the next most, with seven of his nine goals coming since Lampard’s arrival.
Rudoni's chances created and assists 24/25
The Sky Blues have been particularly dangerous in the air, with their 19 headed goals being at least six more than any other team in England’s second tier this season. They also attempted the most headed shots (131), with at least 11 more than any other side.
Rudoni’s five headed goals is the joint-most in the division in 2024/25 along with Burnley’s Zian Flemming. The Coventry midfielder is also a creative spark, with only Josh Murphy and Tom Fellows (both 14) recording more assists than his 12, and only three players creating more than his 78 chances in the Championship in 2024/25.
Coventry have also used just 26 players in the Championship this season, giving them one of the most tightly-knit squads in the division, though the only team to have used fewer players than them are Bristol City (24).
Bristol City
Liam Manning has done a fantastic job at Ashton Gate in his first full season as Bristol City's head coach. After a respectable 11th-place finish in 2023/24 after arriving from Oxford United in November 2023, he guided the Robins to sixth place and their first Championship playoff campaign since 2007/08 under Gary Johnson.
As the only team in this season’s playoffs not to have previously played in the Premier League, Bristol City could be the team that neutrals hope can go all the way.
Manning’s men are there on merit, though it should be pointed out that Bristol City’s 68 points are the lowest to secure a top-six finish in the second tier since Leicester City in 2012/13, while the last team to win fewer were Crystal Palace (62) in 1986/87.
As mentioned, the Robins have used the fewest players in the Championship this season, with just 24 players used across their 46 games. In fact, no team have used fewer in the second tier since Burnley and Leicester both used only 23 players in the 2013/14 campaign.
Four players have played in all 46 of the Robins’ league matches this season – Max Bird, Zak Vyner, Max O’Leary and Jason Knight – while the latter three have started every single one of them. Only eight players in the Championship have started 46 games this season, and no other club have more than one who has.
Knight has won possession more often than any other player in the Championship this season (293), while Bird has created 75 chances, with only four players in the second tier managing more.
Bristol City haven’t gone ahead and dominated games much, though. In fact, as the table below shows, they have spent as much time trailing in games (25 per cent) as they have leading (25 per cent), and they often did their best work when trailing.
They have won 21 points from losing positions in the Championship this season, with only Sheffield Wednesday (24) having recovered more.
Time spent by each club losing, drawing and winning
The first leg of Bristol City's semi-final against Sheff Utd could be key, given the Robins have the fourth-best home record in the Championship this season (13 wins, seven draws, three losses). However, the Blades are one of the three teams who can better that (15 wins, four draws, four losses).
Bristol City like to get their shots off, with only four teams having attempted more than their 596 shots in the Championship this season. They have both scored and conceded from around 9.9 per cent of shots for/against, scoring 59 goals from 596 shots and conceding 55 from 555 shots faced.
Anis Mehmeti (12) and Nahki Wells (10) are the only players at Manning’s disposal who have more than five league goals this season, so others may need to step up and help out.
The Robins don’t arrive in the playoffs in great form, having won just one of their last five matches and none of their last three, while they haven’t won away since a 2-0 victory at Millwall on 4 March - which was also the last time they kept a clean sheet in any game. However, if Bristol City can use their home advantage in the first leg, perhaps they won’t need to win at Bramall Lane.
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