What to look out for on Fixture Release Day

As is tradition, the Premier League fixture release – this Thursday at 09:00 BST - will come as a pleasant surprise for most supporters.

See: Man City start title defence against Kompany's Burnley

It’s been less than three weeks since the curtain came down on the 2022/23 campaign, but already we are invited to turn our attention to 2023/24 and think upon the Premier League as a blank slate; a fresh start.

Here are five things to look out for when the fixture list is revealed.

Pochettino looking for quick turnaround

The appointment of Mauricio Pochettino has gone down well with Chelsea fans but he has an almighty task ahead of him. The club are at their lowest ebb following last season’s 12th-place finish, their worst since 1993/94, and their huge squad needs slimming down over the summer.

See: All 380 Premier League fixtures

Despite these challenges, the enormous net spend since Todd Boehly bought the club means Chelsea are expected to start climbing back up the table and competing for honours, so Pochettino needs to hit the ground running. A kind fixture list might help.

Chelsea will want to avoid early "Big Six" matches in the hope that Pochettino can get a couple of wins under his belt early on, especially considering Thomas Tuchel was sacked just six matches into last season.

See: Pochettino's Chelsea a team to fear

There is no indication Pochettino will be treated the same way, of course. But given that Graham Potter was unable to recover from a slow start at the helm, it is imperative the new Chelsea head coach gets the players, fans and board onside early in his tenure.

Then again, perhaps an early test would be a good thing.

Chelsea did not win a single match against the traditional "big six" or Newcastle United last season. If Pochettino was to oversee an August or September victory over one of these clubs, he would instantly earn breathing space, much in the way Erik ten Hag reset the narrative with a 2-1 win over Liverpool in August 2022 immediately after losing his first two matches at Manchester United.

Postecoglou needs to win over doubters

There are many Tottenham Hotspur supporters pleased with the appointment of Ange Postecoglou, a charismatic manager whose attractive style of football and close relationship with supporters is anticipated to be a welcome break from the last three Spurs head coaches.

However, Postecoglou’s lack of experience in a "big five" league means there are doubters who need to be won over. His success in Japan, Australia and Scotland does not necessarily translate to managing a big Premier League club, particularly at a time when Spurs' status is being challenged by the likes of Newcastle, Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa.

In fact, he joins the club at a very challenging moment. Not only does Postecoglou need to undo years of coaching and squad-building that have focused on a cautious and reactive style of football, he also has to contend with the transfer rumours surrounding Harry Kane.

It goes without saying that Postecoglou could do with a fast start, particularly after what happened two years ago. In 2021/22 Nuno Espirito Santo lasted until only 1 November, winning 15 points from the first 10 Premier League matches but failing to connect with supporters.

Like Postecoglou, Nuno was appointed at the end of a long manager search and, like Postecoglou, he was not thought to be the first choice – certainly among supporters. The Australian will want a nice fixture list, then, with some early home matches against relegation-tipped teams.

Opposing visions at Luton and Burnley will be tested

As they look forward to their club’s first ever Premier League season, fans of Luton Town will enjoy Fixture Release Day more than anyone.

Luton are a modern-day anomaly. They play a direct and long-ball style of football that isn’t in vogue at Premier League level these days, while their 10,356-seater stadium is the smallest the division has ever seen.

Kenilworth Road might not be an easy place to go, then, and indeed its size – coupled with Luton’s inexperience – means home form will be vital to the club's hopes of Premier League safety.

Their first home fixture of the season is a day to mark in the calendar. Like Brentford’s 2-0 victory over Arsenal on the opening day of the 2021/22 season, Luton’s debut home match could be a huge story.

See: Luton's Mpanzu on his journey from non-league

Burnley are the polar opposite. As Premier League stalwarts who have spent seven of the last nine seasons in the division, they lived up to expectations in 2022/23 by bouncing straight back under the leadership of Vincent Kompany, who coached a Pep Guardiola-esque style of possession football.

Look out for their first match against Manchester City, when Kompany’s tactics will be tested by his old mentor, but also keep an eye on how many kinder home matches Burnley are given in the opening months.

Many managers have found their aesthetic football in the Championship comes unstuck upon promotion. Will Burnley get the chance to settle, or will Kompany need to make hasty defensive concessions early on?

Who will challenge Man City?

Man City’s Treble has raised the prospect that Guardiola’s side will be even stronger next season and, with five titles in the last six seasons, they are clear favourites. Meanwhile, Arsenal will be expected to build on their foundations and push City close again.

But after years of false dawns, could the Premier League finally get a three-way – or possibly even four-way - title fight in 2023/24?

During the long summer months of transfer rumours and optimistic projections it is easy to talk like this, to suggest that the big clubs are all ready to battle it out. But we are perpetually caught out by the latest crisis, and the likelihood is that only one club will emerge to challenge Man City.

Still, there are multiple candidates for which club that might be - and results over the first few weeks will decide.

Liverpool went 11 matches unbeaten at the end of the 2022/23 season and, just maybe, are on the precipice of returning to their best form. The repositioning of Trent Alexander-Arnold appears to have stabilised things, while a big summer refresh in central midfield, beginning with Alexis Mac Allister’s arrival from Brighton, could take Jurgen Klopp’s side back to the top.

It is probably too early for Pochettino’s Chelsea but Ten Hag will be hopeful of delivering big things at Man Utd. They finished 14 points off the top last season, which isn’t as far as it sounds. Turning five of their 2022/23 defeats into wins is all it would take, and if Ten Hag is able to strengthen significantly then it is within the realms of possibility.

For Liverpool or Man Utd to spark a title challenge they will require an inviting fixture list in order to rack up early wins.

Can Brighton and Villa pick up where they left off?

After unexpectedly qualifying for Europe, expectations are high at Brighton and Villa, who possess arguably two of the most talented managers in world football in Roberto De Zerbi and Unai Emery.

But things might not be so easy next season. For starters, playing in Europe on Thursday nights poses a challenge to both, as we saw in 2022/23 when West Ham United struggled with the workload and were embroiled in a relegation battle.

Brighton and Villa are not necessarily better placed, while the form guide complicates things further. De Zerbi’s side won 16 points from their final 11 Premier League matches, which is below their season average, while Emery’s Villa won only three of their final seven league fixtures.

Those statistics are hardly cause for alarm, but nevertheless it shows a slight downturn from their respective peaks. Consequently both managers will be hoping that a kind fixture list on Thursday offers them the chance to hit the ground running.

That currently looks easier for Villa - set to spend big this summer, with Youri Tielemans already in through the door – than for Brighton, who have lost Mac Allister to Liverpool and could see more big names poached.

Download the 2023/24 fixtures

Also in this series

Part 1: Salah the No 1 player to avoid first up on Fixture Release Day
Part 2: Pochettino's Chelsea a team to fear on Fixture Release Day
Part 4: How to follow Fixture Release Day for news and FPL insight