A home encounter with AFC Bournemouth means Erling Haaland (£14.0m) will be the runaway captain pick for Gameweek 11 of Fantasy Premier League.
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After scoring only once in his previous three appearances, Manchester City’s forward was back to his very best in the Manchester derby last weekend.
Haaland scored twice and supplied an assist to collect 16 points, his first double-figure return since Gameweek 4.
Although very few of his huge 85 per cent ownership will look elsewhere for the captaincy, there are strong armband alternatives to the Norwegian in Gameweek 11.
See: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 11
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), the top-scoring player in Fantasy, has blanked just once all season ahead of his visit to Luton Town.
Son Heung-Min (£9.6m) entertains Chelsea in prolific form. Since being moved up front for Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 4, he has scored seven goals and produced a league-high 70 points.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.4m) visits Nottingham Forest on the back of four goals, four assists and 41 points in the last four Gameweeks.
Who’s been the biggest threat?
The underlying numbers show why Watkins has been such a huge success over those last four Gameweeks.
The Villa forward ranks top in Fantasy for a host of key statistics, with his 15 shots, 15 shots in the box and nine shots on target all more than any other player.
There’s little to separate Salah and Son here across every attacking statistic, despite the latter’s new role as a forward.
The numbers also serve to highlight the contrast in accuracy of Salah and Haaland in this period.
The Liverpool star has managed only five shots on target from 13 attempts, which equates to a 38.4 per cent accuracy. Haaland, meanwhile, has produced seven shots on target from eight attempts, or 87.5 per cent.
Stats over last four Gameweeks
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins | 15 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
| Salah | 13 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Son | 12 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 2 |
| Haaland | 8 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
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Who has the best home/away form?
Watkins once again impresses here, with his 14 shots and 13 shots in the box in away matches both ranking top in the assessment.
Salah, meanwhile, places first for both key passes and big chances created, with 11 and five respectively.
However, it’s worth noting that the pair have each played five away matches, whereas Haaland and Son have only played four at home.
That elevates the Man City star in terms of goal threat.
Haaland ranks joint-top with Watkins on four big chances, while he has recorded eight shots on target at home compared with Salah’s tally of three in away fixtures.
Stats compared home/away in 23/24
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins (A) | 14 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Haaland (H) | 12 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Salah (A) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 5 |
| Son (H) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 |
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Assessing the opponents’ defence
Analysing each player’s Gameweek opponents can help identify any weaknesses to target.
Haaland and Salah’s appeal is lifted further by the numbers over each side’s last four matches.
Man City’s visitors Bournemouth are the worst here for conceding goals, shots in the box and big chances, although there’s little between the Cherries and Liverpool’s hosts Luton.
While Nott’m Forest’s numbers also look encouraging for Watkins, there’s less reason for optimism for Son’s prospects, with Chelsea’s defensive data far more impressive than their three rivals.
Opponents' stats last four matches
| Team | Goals conceded | Clean sheets | Shots in box conceded | Big chances conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 10 | 0 | 48 | 15 |
| Luton | 8 | 0 | 47 | 14 |
| Nott'm Forest | 6 | 1 | 41 | 11 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 1 | 30 | 8 |
The team home/away data is very much in Haaland’s favour here.
Bournemouth have conceded 16 big chances in away matches, twice as many as Luton have allowed at home.
The Cherries' 57 shots conceded on the road is almost as many as Luton and Nott’m Forest have allowed between them in home matches, with 26 and 33 respectively.
Once again, Chelsea’s numbers will surely do enough to steer most Son backers away from handing him the armband.
Opponents' home/away form 23/24
| Team | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 11 | 0 | 57 | 16 |
| Luton | 6 | 0 | 26 | 8 |
| Nott'm Forest | 5 | 0 | 33 | 7 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 30 | 5 |
So, who’s the best captain?
The Bournemouth defensive data, combined with their showings on the road, gives Haaland the clear advantage here.
Although his recent numbers haven’t been the greatest, the Man City talisman continues to deliver returns and now looks well-placed to exploit the Cherries’ poor form.
While Luton’s recent displays at the back suggest Salah will be the Norwegian’s main challenger, their surprisingly stubborn home performances could limit his output.
Watkins also looks on course for more joy at Nott’m Forest thanks to his potential for goals and assists, but Son may struggle for too many opportunities against Chelsea.
View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 11 in Fantasy Premier League