How Emery has turned Aston Villa into title contenders

Alex Keble looks at why it is time to start considering Aston Villa as potential Premier League title challengers.

Aston Villa

When asked, in the aftermath of victory over Arsenal, whether Villa were in the title race, Unai Emery said something wholly unexpected: “We are in.”

With those three small words, Emery has abandoned the cautious manager-speak and given Villa supporters permission to dream of the unthinkable.

And why not? In the space of four days, Villa beat last season’s top two without conceding a single goal.

Top four

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Man City MCI	38	+62	91
2	Arsenal ARS	38	+62	89
3	Liverpool LIV	38	+45	82
4	Aston Villa AVL	38	+15	68

Full table

They obliterated Manchester City, restricting them to only two shots and none after the 11th minute, and then they dug deep to edge past Arsenal despite suffering for long periods.

We are firmly in “whisper it quietly” territory here. Defeating Man City in that manner showed Villa are as good as anyone in the Premier League. But beating Arsenal when second best? That, some might say, is the mark of champions.

Since his first match in charge on 6 November 2022, Emery has won 84 points from 40 matches, with only Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City winning more in that time.

Most points since 5 Nov 2022

It’s a points tally seven or eight short of what it takes to win a Premier League title. Villa, then, need only a fractional improvement to be amongst it in May.

Here’s how Emery turned the club around – and why Aston Villa are considered challengers.

Hard work and total control

Nine of the 11 players who started both wins over Arsenal and Man City played under Steven Gerrard.

Yes, Villa have spent a fair chunk of money, but Emery’s achievements are first and foremost about elite coaching and the structure that Villa’s owners have put in place around him.

Emery is renowned for spending dozens of hours researching upcoming opponents to find flaws, before passing this information on to his players in excruciating detail during long video analysis sessions.

It is a methodology that has rubbed people up the wrong way in the past, but at Villa there is total buy-in, thanks in no small part to the streamlined hierarchy behind the scenes.

That buy-in extends to the club owners, Nassef Sawiris & Wes Edens, who have given Emery unprecedented control.

He has brought in close confidantes Monchi, as President of Football Operations, and Damian Vidagany, who arrived as Emery’s personal assistant, but is now Director of Football.

Together, these three form a triangle of control, overseeing transfer activity and virtually every other aspect of the club.

Emery’s power is such that Villa even announced a partnership with third-tier Spanish side Real Union in November, a club owned by the Villa head coach.

Unique tactical formula is constantly evolving

All that hard work and all those long team meetings would count for nothing if it wasn’t for Emery’s truly world-class tactical acumen.

He is among the most accomplished tacticians in the sport, mixing his unique philosophy with a restlessness that leads to reactive tweaking from match to match.

The foundation of Emery’s football can be defined in two broad categories: on-the-ball and off-the-ball.

In possession, Villa look to bait the opposition press with high-risk passing out from the back, with the aim being to spin round the pressers and attack quickly as if on the counter-attack.

Next five fixtures

They have amassed 39 "direct attacks" this season, behind only Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, but have put together only the 11th-most 10+ open-play passing sequences, with 171, behind Fulham, among others.

Off the ball, they look to squeeze the middle of the pitch, rather than press high, and use a distinctive offside trap to keep teams away from their goal.

Villa’s PPDA, (Passes Per Defensive Action, which measures the intensity of a team’s pressing), is the 12th-highest in the division (13.6) and below the likes of Wolverhampton Wanderers and Brentford, and Emery’s side have completed fewer high turnovers, with 117, than even Luton Town (123).

But they have also caught 75 offsides, a full 50 per cent more than second-placed Spurs, with 51, and are among the most proficient tacklers - in the central third of the pitch only.

Aston Villa tackles 2023/24

It is an unusual approach to playing Premier League football, combining elements of Pep Guardiola-style control (pass out from the back, deploy a high defensive line) with more conservative management; Villa do not press high and neither do they look to dominate possession.

That middle ground gives Villa a punchiness going forward, resilience at the back, and an underdog mentality that allows them to be adaptive, winning when on the back foot or the front.

Adjustments & Villa’s key men

Within that basic structure, Emery can change the formation (4-2-2-2, 3-2-4-1 and 4-2-3-1 have all been used this season) and move the pieces around without ever losing his principles.

In recent matches, this has included instructing his wingers to man-mark Spurs’ inverted full-backs, taking them out of the game; swarming the Rodri-shaped hole in the Man City midfield by playing without wide men; introducing Youri Tielemans into the No 10 role to support Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins; and dropping Boubacar Kamara into a back three.

But one positional aspect always stays the same: Emery loves to pack central midfield, often deploying a box by instructing one or two of his wingers to tuck inside and act as auxiliary No 10s.

This is where John McGinn’s outstanding form comes in. Few players can turn in tight spaces and break lines like the Scotland captain, who tops the Villa charts this season for through-balls, with eight, and progressive passes (89).

In fact, across the Premier League only Jeremy Doku and Matheus Cunha have completed more take-ons than McGinn's 33, reflecting his – and Emery’s - desire to burst forward.

Pau Torres is another crucial component. Among centre-backs, only Lewis Dunk, with 88, has completed more progressive passes this season than him (81), while Torres also tops the Premier League charts for progressive carrying distance (3,601 metres).

Either dribbling or passing, Torres cuts lines to break the opposition press, often finding McGinn on the half-turn ready to drive Villa forward.

A word, too, for the brilliant partnership of Douglas Luiz and Kamara at the base of midfield, whose ability to calmly control possession under pressure grounds everything Villa do.

Among midfielders, only Yves Bissouma, Declan Rice and Rodri have completed more passes this season than Luiz’s 863.

Can Villa win the league?

The winner against Arsenal was a trademark Villa cutback from a trademark Bailey dribble, but what was new was the 13-pass move from back-to-front that preceded it.

McGinn's goal v Arsenal

This is a club growing in confidence and growing in control. Indeed, Emery has long wanted Villa’s possession to climb.

Their club-record 15 consecutive home wins began following a 4-2 defeat to Arsenal in February after which Emery lambasted his players for kicking it long towards the end; for failing to stay in control.

Clearly they don’t have a problem with that anymore, not at Villa Park at least. But if Villa are to challenge for the title they will need to improve their away form, which may come naturally after the confidence-boosting victories against Man City and Arsenal.

Results and performances like the ones last week can transform a team. The Villa players need no longer see themselves as plucky outsiders, but as some of the best players – as one of the best teams - in Europe.

That could be enough to puff out their chests and begin approaching away games with the same confidence they show at home. If they can do that, there’s no reason to rule out a title challenge.

After all, Villa’s outfield bench against Arsenal – Matty Cash, Jacob Ramsey, Moussa Diaby, Alex Moreno, Nicolo Zaniolo, Clement Lenglet, Jhon Duran and Leander Dendoncker – is arguably better than either Arsenal’s or Man City’s, even with Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia injured.

Villa now know they can beat anyone. They have a fortress in Villa Park. They have squad depth. And they have a world-class manager whose tactics are as complex and shape-shifting as any in the Premier League. If they can avoid major injuries, who knows?

After the Arsenal win, club-captain McGinn said he was banning the “T-word”.

But Emiliano Martinez, FIFA World Cup 2022 winner and recipient of the Yashin Trophy for best goalkeeper at the Ballon d’Or, has other ideas.

“When you beat City and Arsenal in a week, one game controlling them like I’ve never seen Man City being controlled, then suffering against Arsenal for 85 minutes and managing to win again.

“I’m a believer, mate.”