Alex Keble analyses where the midweek matches could be won and lost.
Does Nunez form give Liverpool the upper hand in end-to-end game?
The 1-1 draw between these two sides on the opening day of the season was a frantic affair, defined by the aggressive pressing approaches of each side and their respective willingness to attack in straight lines.
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Jurgen Klopp versus Mauricio Pochettino will always produce an exciting end-to-end match, but that does not necessarily mean goals – for Chelsea, anyway.
The visitors have won each of their previous three Premier League matches, and yet with Nicolas Jackson away at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) their goalscoring issues have got even worse - Chelsea have scored one goal or less in three of their last four matches in all competitions.
They are still the Premier League’s most profligate team, underperforming against their Expected Goals (xG) by 7.6 goals, and a centre-forward hasn’t scored a league goal for Chelsea since Christopher Nkunku's consolation effort at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Christmas Eve.
Liverpool certainly don’t have that problem. Darwin Nunez has scored three goals in his last three matches in all competitions, and all three have been instinctive strikers’ finishes, suggesting he might finally have turned a corner.
Nunez's first goal v AFC Bournemouth
A superb team move, finished off in style by @Darwinn99 😍⚽ pic.twitter.com/49iPw9uyc2
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) January 21, 2024
Klopp’s side have great variety in their attack and goals coming from everywhere. Chelsea are reliant on Cole Palmer and are perennially wasteful. That should prove decisive at Anfield.
Can early set-pieces again help Arsenal through their blip?
Arsenal supporters are desperately hoping that the 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace is a turning point and the end of their stuttering form, when goals dried up as deep-lying defences began easily rebuffing Mikel Arteta’s repetitive attacking patterns.
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Nottingham Forest are, however, a daunting prospect. Under Nuno Espirito Santo, they are precisely the kind of defensive team who can frustrate Arsenal again, and worse still, the Gunners have lost their last three matches in all competitions at the City Ground, including a 1-0 defeat in the Premier League in May.
Arsenal have won only two of their last seven league matches on the road and are winless in their last three. If that wasn’t ominous enough for Arteta’s side, Forest’s last two Premier League wins were against last season’s top four, beating Newcastle United and Manchester United 3-1 and 2-1, respectively.
In both games, it was a simple defend-and-counter strategy that worked for Nuno’s side.
To avoid a similar fate, Arsenal need to repeat the trick of that Palace win, namely scoring an early set-piece goal.
Arsenal have scored the most non-penalty set-piece goals in the division with 13, while Nott'm Forest's total of 11 is the most conceded this way. This is a helpful stat that tells Arteta where the focus should be this week.
Will Wolves’ counter-attacks bring them level on points with Man Utd?
Their meeting on the opening weekend of the 2023/24 season contained within it a warning of what was to come for Man Utd, but a 1-0 victory for Erik ten Hag’s side buried the story.
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Wolves were desperately unlucky to lose, having beaten United’s haphazard high press on multiple occasions to counter-attack at will through the middle, dribbling through the lines to create three-on-threes and three-on-twos that should have ended in a Wolves win.
Both teams have carried on in exactly the same way - Man Utd remain open to counters, struggling badly in the transition, while Wolves are one of the Premier League’s best at capitalising on turnovers.
Man Utd have allowed 446 progressive carries against them, the third-most in the Premier League this season, and sit fourth for attempted take-ons against with 442. Wolves' 244 successful take-ons top the charts, as does their total of 24 fast breaks.
The tactical pattern of the match is easy to predict, then, and on home turf Wolves are more likely to convert some of their counter-attacking chances into goals.
Gary O’Neil’s side are unbeaten in eight matches at Molineux and since the start of Matchweek 15 on 5 December, only Liverpool have amassed more points than the 14 points of Wolves.
By contrast, Man Utd have lost three of their last four away Premier League matches, scoring only once.
There is a real opportunity here for Wolves to capitalise on the visitors’ poor form and, collecting three points, move level with Man Utd.
Huge month for Villa needs to start with a bang
A run of one win in four matches, bookended by draws against relegation candidates Sheffield United and Everton, has threatened to put a dampener on Aston Villa’s superb season.
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If they are to retain hopes of a title push, and if they are to hold off challengers for a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League, then Villa need to get over this small blip with a strong set of results through February.
Beating Newcastle, one of their rivals for the top four, would provide a huge psychological boost, and indeed this is the perfect opportunity to come back with a bang and consign their stuttering form to history.
Since beating Man Utd at the start of December, no side have taken fewer Premier League points than the three of Newcastle, who have also lost each of their last four away league matches.
Meanwhile Villa have won 16 and drawn one of their last 17 home games in the competition, last losing in February 2023.
In fact, Villa are top of the league on home form this season with 28 points, while Newcastle are second from bottom, ahead of Sheff Utd, for away form with only five points.
If Villa believe they can challenge for the Premier League title they simply have to win matches like these. Anything less, and their drifting performances will threaten to carry on into February.
Are Bournemouth the perfect opponents for Phillips to show his value?
Kalvin Phillips is an ideal fit for West Ham United and he has the chance to prove as much this weekend, when he is likely to make his debut in place of the injured Edson Alvarez.
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His defensive anticipation, aggression in the tackle, and Pirlo-esque control of the tempo from the base of midfield make him a worthy Declan Rice replacement, as highlighted last week, but what really stands out is his long-ball distribution to the wings.
Phillips is excellent at switching the play or firing long diagonal passes over the top of the opposition defence, which is perfect for David Moyes’ counter-attacking and wing-focused approach.
Only Nott'm Forest, with seven fast-break goals in the Premier League, have scored more goals this way in 2023/24 than West Ham's six. With Phillips in the team, that number should quickly rise.
AFC Bournemouth are vulnerable to those breaks, too. Under Andoni Iraola they pour forward in high numbers and counter-press with urgency, making Phillips’ ability to resist the press - and ping balls in behind Bournemouth’s high line – West Ham’s biggest weapon on Thursday.
Will Luton’s low block stump goal-shy Brighton?
Luton Town will see this as a huge opportunity to lift themselves out of the relegation zone.
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Brighton & Hove Albion are usually opponents to be feared, but their recent form – coupled with their difficulty facing low blocks this season – hands Luton the chance to win the match and make it 10 points from their last five Premier League matches.
Roberto De Zerbi’s Seagulls have won just one of their last eight away fixtures, conceding 17 times, more than two goals per match on average.
And the goals have stopped flowing at the other end, too. Brighton have failed to score in three of their last five matches, having scored in a club-record 32 consecutive league matches before that. They have also drawn 0-0 in back-to-back Premier League matches.
Their main problem is breaking down teams who sit deep and pack the penalty area, thus denying Brighton the chance to play at a high tempo or by out-manoeuvring a press, as they would like to. They have held 65 per cent or more of the ball in nine league matches this season, but have won only one of them.
Luton are the exact opposite. Brighton are second-top for possession (62.0 per cent) and Luton are second-bottom (37.8 per cent).
The hosts will happily drop back and look to slow the visitors down, repeating the pattern of their recent 1-0 win at Kenilworth Road against Newcastle.
Can Sheffield United capitalise on Palace’s meek form?
Sheff Utd appear to be running out of time to stage a comeback. They are already seven points adrift of Everton in 17th and, having won only two Premier League matches all season, Chris Wilder may have been parachuted in too late.
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Then again, it has been a tough start for Wilder, who in his first seven league matches has faced four of last season’s top seven, plus Chelsea.
The fixtures get slightly easier from here, and therefore a win at Selhurst Park could be the catalyst for a revival.
A first away win of the season is certainly on the cards. Palace have failed to score in each of their last three matches in all competitions and have won only one of their last 10 in the Premier League.
Sheff Utd may not get the boost of facing a Michael Olise-less Palace, however, with the Palace star back in contention for Tuesday night's match after recovering from injury.
Wilder’s side have scored the fewest goals (17) and conceded the most goals (51) in the league. It doesn’t look good, and yet we all know how quickly momentum can shift. It needs to happen soon.
Will Maddison’s return prove as spectacular as Toney’s?
James Maddison came off the bench to play the final 17 minutes of Tottenham Hotspur’s 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup fourth round on Friday, returning to the side after a 10-week lay-off that spanned 11 matches in total.
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His return is cause for celebration for Spurs fans and neutrals alike, because in the first half of the 2023/24 season, Maddison was arguably the best player in the division – and certainly among the most exciting to watch.
Brentford will be all-too wary of Maddison’s threat on his return, given Ivan Toney’s spectacular comeback in their most recent Premier League match.
Maddison will do well to match that, but he might have to if Spurs are to take the three points against their bogey team. Brentford are unbeaten in four matches against Spurs and won this exact fixture 3-1 last year.
Will Kompany’s expansive football be his downfall on Etihad return?
Vincent Kompany’s return to Etihad Stadium isn’t likely to end well.
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Burnley’s expansive football this season has led to the concession of 18 goals in just six matches against the current top five, which includes Man City’s simple 3-0 win at Turf Moor on the opening weekend.
What’s more, City are back in their groove, having won seven matches in all competitions and welcomed Kevin De Bruyne back from injury.
His goal and assist in the 3-2 victory over Newcastle suggests the Belgian will need no time to get back up to speed.
De Bruyne has been involved in six goals in five appearances against Burnley in all competitions (2G, 4A).
Few people give Kompany’s Burnley any chance of denying Man City an eighth consecutive win.
Will Pereira benefit from weakened Everton midfield?
Andreas Pereira makes his 100th Fulham appearance this weekend and it could be a special one for the Brazilian.
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Fulham have won four of their last five Premier League home matches and although Everton are strong on the road – winning five times, more than anyone else bar Liverpool and Man City – Sean Dyche’s side have won just one of their last eight matches in all competitions.
The form guide points in a clear direction, then, and the chances of a Fulham victory are boosted by the mismatch in midfield.
Everton are weakened in the middle without Abdoulaye Doucoure and Idrissa Gueye, which potentially hands an advantage to Andreas Pereira, who drifts across the No 10 zone for Fulham.
He has created 40 chances this season, more than any other Fulham player in 2023/24.
