January is the quietest month for the Premier League. The staggered winter break and two FA Cup weekends interrupt the flow of action, so much so you might not have noticed how many big changes have occurred over the last few weeks.
On Boxing Day, only six points separated the top five and the team bottom of that pile, Manchester City, had a match in hand to reduce the gap between those five to just three points.
It prompted many to predict a once-in-a-generation title challenge between the lot of them, and although technically that is still possible, there is currently the largest points gap between the top five to date.
Eight points separate Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur. The table is shaking out into a more lasting pattern.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
Here’s a look at what might happen over the next month, and how the league table could look when the run-in starts at the beginning of March.
Liverpool’s "Big Six" test could define their season
February is a huge month for the leaders. The 4-0 victory at AFC Bournemouth last weekend felt like a coming-of-age moment for Jurgen Klopp’s evolving side, largely because their counter-pressing and control of midfield was reminiscent of the imperious Liverpool of old.
Three wins on the bounce has seen them rise to the top of the pack, and with Trent Alexander-Arnold plus at least one of their left-backs imminently returning from injury, Liverpool could go on a long run.
Alexis Mac Allister is pulling the strings in a midfield that appears increasingly settled, Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk are unplayable, and the sheer variety in the frontline is blowing teams away.
Mohamed Salah’s injury is worse than first feared and he might be out until the end of February, but if the Bournemouth match is anything to go by, Liverpool can cope without him.
There’s just one problem. Liverpool haven’t won a single one of their five matches against "Big Six" sides this season, drawing four, and they host Chelsea before visiting Arsenal in their next two fixtures.
It could be season-defining. Chelsea’s openness in big matches under Mauricio Pochettino (their 4-4 draw with Man City being the prime example) is good news for a Liverpool attack in full flow, and then Klopp will back his side to win at Emirates Stadium after a 2-0 win there in the FA Cup third round.
The road blocks are clearing for Liverpool. They have the tactical dexterity, confidence and personnel to win all of their next five fixtures and enter March as favourites to lift the title.
But fall short in those "Big Six" matches and perceptions will shift again.
Man City: De Bruyne return points to successful February
In each of the last three seasons, Man City have recovered from an indifferent start to put together a long string of wins that allowed them to pull away from their rivals.
Last year it was a 12-match streak between February and May. The year before, it was 12 between November and January, and in 2020/21, they won 15 in a row between December and March.
Right now, the run is only three, but after Kevin De Bruyne’s match-winning return at Newcastle United a fortnight ago, it feels like we are at the start of one of those sequences, especially with Erling Haaland’s imminent comeback signalling a clean bill of health.
What’s more, Man City look rejuvenated by the warm-weather holiday of sorts in Saudi Arabia, where the FIFA Club World Cup victory acted as a reset after those foggy post-Treble hangover months.
The fixture list looks kind, too. Four home matches in the next six is an opportunity to the keep momentum going, while an away encounter at expansive Bournemouth is likely to be as straightforward as it was for Liverpool last weekend.
If there is a spanner in the works, then it’s Brentford. Thomas Frank’s side, who did the double over Man City last season, play them twice in the Premier League over the coming month, which is bad timing for Pep Guardiola considering Ivan Toney’s goalscoring return on Saturday.
The two Brentford matches should prove, definitively, whether Man City are recharged and unstoppable, or whether the hesitancy in possession and counter-attacking vulnerability of the first half of 2023/24 remains.
Arsenal: Stuttering form may continue in tough month
It feels like Liverpool and Man City are about to pull away to create a two-horse race.
Arsenal have picked up only seven points from their last six Premier League matches as familiar issues re-emerge - flat and predictable attacking rhythms if there’s no fast start, fatigued star players like Bukayo Saka, and the lack of a goalscoring No 9.
Mikel Arteta will hope that their 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace has hit the reset button. A break in Dubai went down well with the players and it is certainly possible that the wobble is behind them.
After all, their winter blues don’t usually go on longer than this. Last season Arsenal won eight points from six matches between 3 January and 15 February, recovering to win the next seven in a row, and in 2021/22 they claimed three points from four matches between 20 November and 3 December, winning the next four after that.
But there’s a problem. In those two seasons, what followed the bad spell was an easy run of matches. That is not the case this February.
Since Nuno Espirito Santo’s appointment, Nottingham Forest have played two matches against top teams (teams that have allowed Nuno to sit deep and counter, as he likes to do) and have won both, beating Manchester United 2-1 and Newcastle United 3-1.
It’s a tough start, but it gets worse. Liverpool have already won at Emirates Stadium in 2024; West Ham United beat Arsenal 2-0 in late December and are unbeaten in five at home; and Newcastle ought to have bounced back by the end of February.
Arsenal probably need to win all five matches just to stay within three points of Man City. Win four and draw with Liverpool and they’d still likely be five points short of Liverpool.
It doesn’t look good, and in truth, it would be a surprise if Arsenal enter March as close to the top as they are now.
Aston Villa: Torres return and home form suggests strong month for Emery
Aston Villa have had a difficult time since a memorable 1-0 win against Man City supposedly put them in the title race.
A draw with bottom club Sheffield United denied Villa the opportunity to be top at Christmas, then they let a 2-0 lead slip at Old Trafford on Boxing Day before squeezing past struggling Burnley and drawing 0-0 at Everton.
This might look like a simple regression to the mean; an inevitable downturn in attacking verve as the fixtures piled up. But there is a better explanation for why Villa’s form has dipped.
Pau Torres is a huge miss, not just defensively - Villa’s high line has been considerably more vulnerable with Clement Lenglet in the team - but also for his brilliant progressive passing that sets Villa away.
He is the linchpin of Unai Emery’s in-possession tactical strategy, playing superb line-breaking passes into Villa’s midfielders. Villa have won 38 points from the 16 Premier League matches Torres has started and only five from the five he has missed.
Torres is back, as is the excellent Jacob Ramsey, which should boost Villa significantly ahead of a fixture list they will relish.
Villa have won nine and drawn one of their 10 home matches, so games at Villa Park ought to take care of themselves. Looking at their two other fixtures, Sheff Utd is, in theory, the most winnable away fixture in the division and Fulham have lost four of their last five matches.
If Emery’s side are to remain in the title race, they need a perfect February to rebuild momentum and prove they can go the distance.
The opportunity is there for them. It is a monumental month for Villa, arguably their biggest of the 21st century so far.
Everything is in place to make the most of it.
Spurs: Weakened squad face difficult fixture run
That five-match winless run through November and early December has probably made a title challenge impossible.
Liverpool are getting better all the time and are already eight points clear of Spurs.
Like Villa and Arsenal, Spurs need a near-perfect next five Premier League matches to stand a chance, but ongoing absences and a difficult set of fixtures makes that unlikely.
James Maddison’s return is imminent and Micky van de Ven has already made his comeback, but Son Heung-min, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr are away on international duty and will probably miss the next three league fixtures.
And it’s an awkward-looking run on the horizon. A trip to Goodison Park will be very tough, while a rejuvenated Brentford are just as big a threat as Brighton & Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
In fact, Spurs won just four points from the reverse four fixtures this season, losing to Wolves and Brighton, and drawing at Brentford on the opening weekend.
That’s an ominous record for a side already eight points short of first.
Of the five still challenging, north London clubs Arsenal and Spurs appear the most likely to fall away in February.