In the Premier League, it's never over until the final whistle. Time and again we get surprises, dramatic turnarounds and late drama.
We celebrate these elements with an award powered by Oracle, the Premier League’s official cloud supplier, who use advanced performance data and machine learning to deliver real-time in-match statistics, providing a deeper understanding of the live action to a huge global audience.
Most Improbable Comeback award
The Most Improbable Comeback award is based on the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform, which calculates the chance of a team securing a win or draw by simulating the remainder of the match 100,000 times.
The model is based on four years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match.
The probability of a win is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time.
From the 2024/25 season onwards, the winner of this award is being determined by a fan vote from a shortlist of the teams that came back to win from the most improbable circumstances, or where there was the highest probability of defeat.
What are the most improbable comebacks in 2024/25?
Here are the five unlikeliest comebacks this season, according to Oracle's data.
Everton 2-3 AFC Bournemouth, 31 Aug
Trailing 2-0 after 86 minutes, Bournemouth were given a 98.50 per cent chance of losing. But Antoine Semenyo pulled a goal back in the 87th minute, and Lewis Cook and Luis Sinisterra then completed an incredible turnaround with stoppage-time goals.
Southampton 2-3 Leicester, 19 Oct
Leicester were 2-0 down after 63 minutes and had a 92.56 per cent chance of losing before Facundo Buonanotte reignited their hopes. Southampton's Ryan Fraser was then sent off while conceding a penalty, which Jamie Vardy converted, and there was a dramatic finale as Jordan Ayew hit the winner for Leicester in the eighth minute of stoppage time.
Man City 1-2 Man Utd, 15 Dec
Josko Gvardiol's first-half goal looked like it was going to be decisive as Manchester City held their lead into the 88th minute. At that point, Manchester United had an 88.64 per cent chance of losing. But in an astonishing twist, Amad sparked an incredible late revival, winning a penalty that Bruno Fernandes converted before scoring himself in the 90th minute to steal a derby victory against all the odds.
Chelsea 1-2 Fulham, 26 Dec
Chelsea led 1-0 after 81 minutes thanks to Cole Palmer's brilliant solo goal, and Fulham’s chances of defeat stood at 88.40 per cent. However, Harry Wilson scored a close-range header to equalise, and substitute Rodrigo Muniz grabbed a 95th-minute winner in a Boxing Day classic.
Brighton 3-2 Spurs, 6 Oct
Tottenham Hotspur led 2-0 in the 48th minute, giving Brighton a 87.21 per cent chance of losing. But Yankuba Minteh halved the deficit and Georginio Rutter levelled the scores just before the hour-mark, before Danny Welbeck rose to head in a 66th-minute winner, completing a sensational 18-minute turnaround and victory for the home team.
To watch all five comebacks, swipe right on the Instagram post below.
Who's won the award in previous seasons?
Tottenham Hotspur's unbelievable 3-2 win at Leicester City in January 2022 claimed the inaugural award.
See: How Oracle decided the award last season
AFC Bournemouth's sensational 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on 3 September 2022 claimed the prize in 2022/23.
Bournemouth then won the award again in 2023/24 for their 4-3 turnaround win over Luton Town in which they battled back from 3-0 down.
Every Most Improbable Comeback winner
| Season | Winner | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Spurs | Leicester 2-3 Spurs |
| 2022/23 | Bournemouth | Nott'm Forest 2-3 Bournemouth |
| 2023/24 | Bournemouth | Bournemouth 4-3 Luton |
