AFC Bournemouth's incredible 4-3 win over Luton Town has won the Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award.
Congratulations to @afcbournemouth, the @Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award winners for the second season in a row! 👏
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 21, 2024
Their 4-3 against Luton was only the fifth time in Premier League history a team won from three goals down!#PLAwards pic.twitter.com/YGDniAKJGN
Bournemouth were 3-0 down at half-time but produced a sensational second-half turnaround led by Antoine Semenyo, who levelled the match just 19 minutes after the restart before scoring the winner in the 83rd minute.
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It made Bournemouth the first team in 21 years, and only the fifth team ever, to come from 3-0 down to win a match. It was only the third time in Premier League League history a side trailed by 3-0 at half-time and still emerged victorious.
Bournemouth claim the award on the basis that they came back to win from the most improbable circumstances, using the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform, which calculates the chance of a team securing a win or draw by simulating the remainder of the match 100,000 times.
The model is based on years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match. The probability of a win is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time.
Staggeringly, Bournemouth's probability of losing was calculated at its highest point to be 97.6 per cent. This was just before Dominic Solanke made it 3-1. It was the highest opponent win-probability percentage recorded for a team who avoided defeat in a Premier League match.
See: Find out more about how the award was decided
Win Probability Statistic
| Event | Match Time | BOU win % | Draw % | LUT win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chong goal (0-1) | 09:00 | 18.4% | 24.5% | 57.1% |
| Ogbene goal (0-2) | 30:48 | 4.8% | 11.8% | 83.3% |
| Barkley goal (0-3) | 45:44 | 0.6% | 2.6% | 96.8% |
| Solanke goal (1-3) | 49:45 | 2.2% | 8.9% | 88.7% |
| Zabarnyi goal (2-3) | 61:02 | 7.4% | 24.3% | 68.3% |
| Semenyo goal (3-3) | 63:36 | 26.5% | 48.4% | 25.1% |
| Semenyo goal (3-4) | 82:56 | 83.2% | 15.1% | 1.7% |
Oracle Most Improbable Comeback winners
2021/22: Leicester 2-3 Spurs
2022/23: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Bournemouth
