Alex Keble looks ahead to Liverpool v Manchester City, which will be the last Premier League meeting between managers Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola.
Jurgen Klopp against Pep Guardiola - an iconic rivalry and the defining feature of the Premier League over the last decade - has one final chapter.
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After 21 matches in England, countless trophies contested, and an ever-evolving tactical battle, Sunday’s meeting at Anfield is the last dance. Winner – maybe – takes all.
Liverpool and Manchester City are separated by just a single point at the top of the table. History tells us that if either manager takes three points on Sunday they will finish above the other.
And this fixture, this legendary rivalry, deserves a final victor for its 16th Premier League edition.
Klopp v Guardiola's head-to-head
| Total | |
| Matches | 15 |
| Guardiola wins | 5 |
| Klopp wins | 4 |
| Draws | 6 |
Differing tactical approaches
There has never been a managerial head-to-head quite like this one.
Arsene Wenger versus Sir Alex Ferguson runs it close in terms of pure title showdowns, and certainly surpasses Guardiola and Klopp for genuine antipathy, but the Liverpool and Man City managers have changed the way English football is played.
Originally, Guardiola brought juego de posicion – detailed positional coaching, swarming possession, the obsessive rondos – to the Premier League, while Klopp came over with his gegenpressing "heavy metal" football and its straight-lined attacks.
The two approaches, blended together by two coaches learning from one another, define the Premier League in 2024.
Possession, territorial control, pressing structures, and exploiting transitions are universal and unchallenged to the extent they are seen as core principles of football itself.
In other words, we are so deep into Klopp’s and Guardiola’s world we don’t even realise there might be other ways to play the sport, their influence so absolute as to be gospel.
And for eight years we have had the pleasure of seeing them tussle with each other for supremacy, learning, adapting, and evolving together in the process.
Recent encounters have yo-yo'd
Guardiola’s team of Erling Haaland and Jeremy Doku have never been more transition-focused and direct. Klopp’s team of midfield aesthetes Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai have never been so intent on control.
The two managers’ journeys have been towards one another, although in the heat of battle their rivalry hasn’t followed quite such a neat trajectory.
Their most recent matches yo-yo between frenetic encounters and hesitant waiting games, patterns we can trace over the last five league meetings.
In both the 2-2 draws of 2021/22, first Liverpool attempted long balls over the top of the Man City defence, only to find this stretched the game too much and gave Guardiola’s side the advantage, before Man City tried the same long-ball strategy in the reverse fixture.
On both occasions, the team initially put on the back foot managed to fight their way back into the contest, but ultimately we had stringy and tactically-messy contests, end-to-end because there were so many longer passes stretching the pitch.
That surely explains why, in the first Premier League encounter between the two sides of 2022/23, Guardiola chose a compact and congested 3-5-2 formation to shut things down while Liverpool sat deeper and compressed space, resulting in a claustrophobic 1-0 win for the Reds.
Emboldened by Man City’s caution and defeat, Klopp went all out for the next one. His 4-2-4 embraced the carnage of constant transitions and Man City ran out 4-1 winners.
That’s an ultra-light review of two years of football but suffice to say the pattern was one of opening and closing - of tight games unfurling and closing back up.
A tough day for Liverpool?
The mania that used to define the game has gone, replaced by a taut and anxious energy; a stillness ready to burst into chaos at any moment as both teams, so prepared for one another, assess the risks of letting the game open up.
That’s precisely what we saw in the 1-1 draw back in November. That day, Liverpool’s new central midfield was slightly disjointed, making it hard for them to evade the Man City press when building out from the back, hence Man City’s control.
Man City held 60 per cent possession, had 16 shots to Liverpool’s eight, and hit a 1.3 Expected Goals (xG) to Liverpool’s 0.6. They had momentum almost from start to last.
Klopp’s side were a little lucky to come away with a point – and lucky that Guardiola didn’t make a single substitution.
Had he done so, City could have gone for the kill when 1-0 up. He is unlikely to make the same mistake again, not when facing a Liverpool side in the midst of an injury crisis.
Midfield injuries
Liverpool, unusually for an encounter at Anfield, might choose to sit back a little, playing with caution as a consequence of the injuries that have fatigued this team.
Szoboszlai and Wataru Endo should be fit to start alongside Mac Allister, having both played in the midweek Europa League victory at Sparta Prague. The duo do, however, still lack some match sharpness, potentially gifting City control of midfield.
That’s why Liverpool are likely to be more conservative than usual and concerned by the sheer weight of numbers that Man City like to pack into this zone. We should expect another of those tense and lower-scoring contests.
It will nevertheless be a fascinating watch, as ever, with key battles across the pitch.
Key battles
Man City’s concentration of players in the middle column tends to suck teams infield, creating space for Jeremy Doku (No 11) to receive longer passes out to the left, as their average positions against Manchester United indicate.
This happened too often in the 1-1 draw at the Etihad as Trent Alexander-Arnold had a torrid time up against Doku, who completed 11 dribbles. Conor Bradley has been superb since coming into the Liverpool team but this is, without question, his biggest challenge to date.
But just because Liverpool might be pushed a little deeper, that does not necessarily mean Man City have the upper hand.
In fact, a lower starting position might help the hosts counter-attack beyond Guardiola’s high line.
Mohamed Salah has returned from injury just in time to partner Darwin Nunez on the right, and these two will make a special effort to lean in that direction in order to avoid a race with Kyle Walker.
They will pile pressure on Nathan Ake should Klopp decide to hit longer balls over the top, as he has done repeatedly in recent meetings with Man City.
Salah has scored 11 goals and assisted seven more in 19 appearances for Liverpool against Man City in all competitions, netting more goals against a Guardiola team than any other player in the Spaniard's top-flight managerial career.
Another possibly game-shaping battle is between Szoboszlai and John Stones. Szoboszlai’s driving carries through midfield – in the centre-left pocket where Stones will sit – are potentially Liverpool’s main route out of the City press.
If he can gain the advantage, assisted by Mac Allister’s clever line-breaking passes under pressure, then Liverpool can prevent waves of Man City attack and territorial advantage.
Substitutions and tactical tweaks
But who holds more possession and more momentum might not matter.
It was Klopp’s sharper reactions in November that dragged Liverpool back into the contest. Substitute Ryan Gravenberch brought some control into proceedings. Guardiola did nothing.
Substitutes have scored or assisted 22 goals in the Premier League this season for Liverpool with 11 being goals and a further 11 in assists, more than any other club, although injuries mean Man City arguably have better options from the bench.
It is apt that two of the all-time great Premier League managers - two tactical obsessives defined over the last eight years by reacting to one another’s ideas – should see their head-to-heads decided by in-game tweaks and counter-strikes.
It will almost certainly be the way again on Sunday, and a fitting end to a rivalry like nothing the Premier League has seen before.
Klopp versus Guardiola never disappoints. For one last time, prepare for something special – and unpredictable.
