Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be influential in Matchweek 28.
Player analysis - Darwin Nunez (Liverpool)
Nunez has scored six goals in his last eight Premier League appearances and looks to be in peak form ahead of a potentially season-defining home match against title rivals Manchester City.
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The lively Liverpool forward causes chaos whenever he plays, constantly testing defenders with his sharp movement and by getting on the end of a stream of chances.
Nunez is currently the only Premier League player to average over five shots per 90 minutes, and there is no doubt he has the skillset to cause the champions problems at Anfield.
Raising his levels
Nunez has been outstanding since Christmas, making a big impact in almost every match he plays.
The 24-year-old has found the back of the net in each of his last three Premier League outings and is now in double figures for the campaign, boasting 10 league goals and seven assists.
Nunez remains a little erratic with his finishing, missing plenty of chances, but as these stats below indicate, he has shown signs of marked improvement in recent weeks.
Earlier on this season his goals output fell way behind his Expected Goals (xG) figure, but across the last eight matches he has effectively matched it.
Nunez's improvement 2023/24
| Before Christmas | Since Christmas | |
|---|---|---|
| Mins/goal | 242.75 | 87.50 |
| Shot conversion (inc. blocks) | 8.33% | 16.67% |
| Shooting accuracy (exc. blocks) | 46.15% | 60% |
| Shots/90 | 4.45 | 6.17 |
| Expected Goals/90 | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| Goals/90 | 0.37 | 1.03 |
The accuracy of the Uruguayan’s finishing has been notably more clinical.
Nunez has already had the same number of shots this season as he did throughout the entire 2022/23 campaign, with 84.
Although his output of shots on target and goals scored are similar, you can see from these shot-placement maps that the Liverpool star is finding the bottom corner far more regularly.
Last season a lot of his efforts were aimed too close to the goalkeeper, but that aspect of his game has evolved.
Nunez shot placement in 2022/23
Nunez shot placement in 2023/24
Nunez has operated on the left, on the right and down the middle this season, and wherever he is deployed, Liverpool’s No 9 is guaranteed to get opportunities.
His movement can be electric, his strength in physical duels with defenders is superb, and he has a natural eye for where the ball is going to fall inside the box.
He averages a league-high 5.05 shots per 90 this season and, while it will be exceptionally difficult for him to achieve that figure against Man City, there is every possibility one or two big chances will fall his way on Sunday.
Erling Haaland is the only Premier League player with a higher non-penalty xG than Nunez this campaign.
| Shots/90 (inc. blocks) | Non-penalty xG/90 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nunez | 5.05 | Haaland | 0.83 |
| Haaland | 4.42 | Nunez | 0.72 |
| Richarlison | 3.73 | Jackson | 0.62 |
| Eze | 3.59 | Isak | 0.62 |
| Salah | 3.37 | Richarlison | 0.57 |
Composure a work in progress
The hope for Jurgen Klopp will be that Nunez is going to spurn fewer opportunities in future.
Nunez's composure at key moments has got better, but he still cannot be relied upon to be consistently ruthless.
Yes, he drilled home a pair of excellent low strikes at Newcastle United. His volley on the run at home to West Ham United was sublime. He also conjured up a confident chip in a 1v1 against Brentford recently.
Yet the stats still tell us that Nunez misses too many "big chances".
Haaland is the only player to spurn more this season, missing 26 of his 40 big chances, compared with Nunez's 21 misses from 27 gilt-edged opportunities.
However, since Christmas, Nunez has been significantly more clinical.
He has converted a third of his big chances in this period, compared with one in six previously, so there are signs he is making those important strides.
As you can see below, Nunez compares very favourably with Haaland in a number of key attacking metrics this season.
Nunez's big chances in PL 23/24
| Before Christmas | Since Christmas | |
|---|---|---|
| Total of big chances | 18 | 9 |
| Big chances missed | 15 | 6 |
| Big chance conversion | 16.67% | 33.33% |
How Nunez can hurt City
A league-high 19 per cent of the goals Man City have conceded this season have come from counter-attacks.
Since the start of December, Pep Guardiola’s men have let in four goals in this manner; twice against Newcastle United and once each against Tottenham Hotspur and versus Chelsea.
Goals conceded on the break 23/24
| Team | Total goals conc. | From fast breaks | % from fast breaks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 27 | 5 | 19 |
| Crystal Palace | 47 | 7 | 15 |
| Man Utd | 39 | 5 | 13 |
Liverpool and Nunez are incredibly dangerous in this facet of the game.
Nunez scored from a breakaway at Brentford. He ran free to set up Mohamed Salah from a full-pitch counter-attack at home to Everton. He also teed up the Egyptian on the back of a fast break against Newcastle.
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City will need to be wary of Nunez’s aerial threat too.
Only four Premier League strikers have had more headed shots, and his brilliant flicked headed goals against Burnley and versus Nottingham Forest (see below) showed a high degree of skill.
With 17 direct goal contributions to his name and confidence sky-high ahead of Sunday’s big match, can Nunez deliver on the big stage?
His pace certainly has the potential to hurt City’s high line, and now when he gets in and around the box he is looking increasingly deadly.