Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be influential in Matchweek 28.
Player analysis: Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) & Son Heung-min (Spurs)
In-form Watkins and Son look tailor-made to shine in Sunday’s exciting top-four showdown between Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
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Only five points separate fourth-placed Villa from Spurs, who also have a match in hand, in fifth.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +14 | 63 |
Producing 29 goals and 16 assists between them so far in 2023/24, Watkins and Son are undoubtedly among the most productive and rounded Premier League forwards.
Stylistically they might be rubbing their hands together too, in anticipation of an open encounter between two of the most attacking, high-risk sides in the division.
Extremely quick and clever with their movement, Watkins and Son will each fancy their chances of running in behind the opposition’s high defensive line.
Watkins is a favourite centre-forward pick of Unai Emery because of the goal threat he carries, but Villa’s head coach will also be full of admiration for the 28-year-old’s work ethic.
No player makes more off-the-ball runs than Watkins, who has been targeted 117 times from his 271 runs into the opposition box this season.
His total of 934 runs is 120 clear of the Premier League’s third-most prolific off-the-ball runner Phil Foden, which is a measure of what Watkins brings to the Villa side.
Top PL runs 2023/24
| Player | Watkins | Solanke | Foden | Nunez | Bowen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total runs | 934 | 903 | 814 | - | - |
| Targeted runs | 342 | 316 | - | - | 289 |
| Runs into box | 271 | 260 | 259 | - | - |
| Into box targeted | 117 | 83 | - | 84 | - |
Watkins is always on the move, providing a consistent outlet for his Villa team-mates.
He is not especially concerned in holding the ball up or linking play – averaging only 16.3 passes per 90 minutes – but Watkins is a forward that makes his markers chase him.
This aspect of his game has also improved rapidly in the current campaign.
As you can see below, he is making more runs than he did last season, he is quicker than he was and the players around him are picking him out with greater regularity too.
| Watkins | 2022/23 | Per 90 | 2023/24* | Per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mins played | 3,134 | - | 2,388 | - |
| Total runs | 1,030 | 29.6 | 934 | 35.2 |
| Top speed (km/h) | 34.2 | - | 34.7 | - |
| Sprints | 560 | 16.1 | 490 | 18.5 |
* After 27 PL matches
Stock on the rise
Watkins has always been an adaptable finisher - and this has again been evident in 2023/24.
He has scored nine right-footed goals, four with his left and three via his head. Watkins also currently leads the way with the most non-penalty goals in the top flight with 16, one ahead of Erling Haaland.
Playing for a much-improved Villa side has helped him double the big chances that fall his way from 0.52 per 90 in 2021/22 to 1.02 so far this season.
But the quality of Watkins' finishing has also developed, with his conversion and strike rates improving every season.
Watkins season-by-season stats
| Season | Mins per goal | Conversion rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 268.6 | 21.2% |
| 2022/23 | 208.9 | 21.4% |
| 2023/24 | 149.3 | 23.9% |
Providing seven goals and two assists across his last six Premier League appearances, the form of Watkins will concern Ange Postecoglou.
The Spurs head coach does have the fastest defender in the division, Micky van de Ven, to negate his speed, but the Villa star has more than enough game intelligence and quality to not have to rely solely on his pace.
Son enjoys facing Villa
In the continued absence of Richarlison, Spurs will ask Son to play as their central striker.
He scored last time out against Crystal Palace, and is especially fond of facing Villa away from home.
The South Korean has five goals in three outings at Villa Park, scoring at a rate of one goal every 52 minutes.
Industry & lethal finishing
Son cannot compete with Watkins for his all-round movement, but the Spurs star is an explosive forward.
Only two Premier League players have made more sprints than Son this season, despite missing several matches during the Asian Cup.
You sense he will be eager to burst in beyond the last Villa defender whenever the hosts push up towards the halfway line on Sunday.
Top PL sprints made 2023/24
| Player | Sprints |
|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon (Newcastle) | 634 |
| Anthony Elanga (Nott'm Forest) | 571 |
| Son Heung-min (Spurs) | 554 |
| Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth) | 553 |
| Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea) | 540 |
| Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 490 |
Once in goalscoring positions, Son remains one of the best around.
The South Korean is currently way ahead of his Expected Goals (xG) tally for the season, and that has been a pattern across three of the previous four campaigns.
During that period, he has found the back of the net with 21 goals more than his xG suggested he should score.
Son's xG stats compared
| Season | xG | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | 9.14 | 11 |
| 2020/21 | 9.70 | 17 |
| 2021/22 | 16.09 | 23 |
| 2022/23 | 10.19 | 10 |
| 2023/24 | 7.66 | 13 |
When clear-cut opportunities fall the Spurs man’s way he rarely disappoints, so Villa must not switch off when Son is in goalscoring positions.
Of all the 32 top-flight players to have received at least 10 big chances this season, Son has the most impressive conversion rate, succeeding with 75 per cent of his efforts.
Big chance conversion 2023/24
| Player | Big chance conv. | Big chance conv. % |
|---|---|---|
| Son Heung-min (Spurs) | 9/12 | 75% |
| Cole Palmer (Chelsea) | 8/11 | 72.3% |
| Elijah Adebayo (Luton) | 7/10 | 70% |
| Carlton Morris (Luton) | 8/12 | 66.7% |
| Taiwo Awoniyi (Nott'm Forest) | 6/10 | 60% |
*Minimum 10 big chances
Watkins and Son share many of the same characteristics, with both players offering significantly more than just goals.
They are team players who are extremely well-suited to the style of play their respective teams adopt.
The strike duo could be the stars of the show on Sunday.
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