Alex Keble explains Mohamed Salah's recent struggles for Liverpool and why he will return to form soon enough.
A frustrating 2024
Salah stopped scoring goals and Liverpool’s Premier League, FA Cup and UEFA Europa League campaigns fell apart.
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It’s a simple correlation, and there are other reasons for the collapse of Jurgen Klopp’s final season, but Salah’s decline is clearly a prominent factor.
He is not used to this. Salah has been one of the most consistent goalscorers in Premier League history - netting between 19 and 32 league goals in six successive seasons - and one of its most relentless performers, too.
Across his six seasons at Liverpool, prior to this one, he featured in 218 of the club’s 228 Premier League matches.
No wonder he looks a little tired. No wonder he is struggling to end this dry spell, having never had to recover from injury like this before.
And when you consider the bad luck he’s had in 2024, it’s no wonder he’s a little tetchy.
After six brilliant seasons, and three months scuppered by disappointments for club and country, he has earned the right to be frustrated.
Salah missed the majority of Egypt’s Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) with a hamstring injury, a bitter blow to him personally.
Out for a month, he came back for a trip to Brentford but then immediately broke down again, missing a three-week period that included the EFL Cup final, Liverpool’s high point of the season.
He hasn’t been the same since.
Here’s a look at what’s gone wrong for Salah - and why he’ll be back soon enough.
Salah’s decline is limited to just the last six PL matches
It’s important not to overstate the problem. Salah has scored 24 goals in all competitions this season, six more than the next best Liverpool player, Darwin Nunez (18).
He also has 12 assists, meaning Salah is on 36 goal contributions from 41 matches, a sensational return for any forward in the world and in line with historic performances.
Salah goal/assists record all competitions since 2017/18
| Season | Matches | Goals | Assists | G/A per match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 52 | 44 | 14 | 1.1 |
| 2018/19 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 0.7 |
| 2019/20 | 48 | 23 | 13 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | 51 | 31 | 6 | 0.7 |
| 2021/22 | 51 | 31 | 15 | 0.9 |
| 2022/23 | 51 | 30 | 16 | 0.9 |
| 2023/24* | 41 | 24 | 12 | 0.9 |
*Three PL matches remaining
His underlying numbers in the Premier League show the same thing - or at least they do up until his last six matches.
Salah scored just one goal, a penalty, across those six and failed to record a single assist, while Liverpool dropped 10 points, ending their title challenge.
So it’s fair to say that Salah’s problems are new. When we ask what’s gone wrong we are only really talking about six Premier League matches.
Salah non-penalty goals/expected assists last three seasons
The table below shows that Salah’s Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) were consistent with years gone by, as were his goal and assist numbers, right up until this six-match barren spell began.
| Season | Non-penalty goals / 90 | Non-penalty xG / 90 | Assists / 90 | xA / 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| 2022/23 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| 2023/24 (exc. last six) | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| 2023/24 (last six only) | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Since then, Salah has racked up a non-penalty xG of 1.6 from 17 shots but failed to score a non-penalty goal as the graphic below shows.
Interestingly, he has also accrued 1.5 xA, only for his team-mates to be equally wasteful. As we might expect, Salah’s form is partly a symptom of the overall dip in Liverpool’s performances.
Nevertheless anyone watching Liverpool’s recent matches can see that Salah isn’t himself: his touch, his shooting, and his movement are all off. Why is that?
Injury, tiredness, or a tactical problem?
The simplest explanation is that Salah is exhausted (after consistently playing 50-60 matches per season) and lacks match sharpness following his return from injury.
So rarely on the treatment table, Salah may be struggling with the novelty of having to re-find his feet, especially alongside team-mates who aren’t firing on all cylinders.
However, there may be a tactical explanation, too.
The graphics below, comparing Salah’s last six matches to his first 23 in the Premier League this season, illustrate the slight change in his position on the pitch.
Salah's last six PL matches 23/24
Salah's first 23 PL matches 23/24
Salah isn’t getting as deep into the penalty area, reflecting his difficulties partnering with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Bradley and Nunez during this run.
He is too often forced to hug the touchline (in a non-dangerous position) as the full-back underlaps, while Nunez’s tendency to drift left – as the graphic below shows – has disconnected Salah from the other forwards.
Nunez's last six PL matches 23/24
Going back further, Salah appears to have lost out somewhat from Alexander-Arnold’s repositioning as an inverted full-back. Without the latter's threat on that side, it is easier for opponents to mark Salah out of the game.
Salah can benefit from greater control under Slot
Liverpool’s collapsing form in 2024 is related to the wildness of Klopp’s latest system and Salah has been one of its victims.
They have won 28 points from losing positions this season and throughout 2023/24 their matches have felt too chaotic, lacking the composure - and the anchor - that was there when Fabinho was in the middle and Roberto Firmino stabilised the front line.
These days there is no counter-balance for Salah, a maverick talent to say the least, and the cumulative effect has been to untether the Egyptian.
The appointment of Arne Slot might just change that, if reports of the Dutchman succeeding Klopp are true.
He is closer to Pep Guardiola in style than Klopp, meaning a bit more order – a bit less chaos – in how attacks are constructed. This might help release Salah, who operates best as the unpredictable forward bouncing off dependable team-mates.
What’s more, in Slot’s 4-2-3-1 formation, the right winger is expected to drift far infield, which will not only put Salah closer to goal but open space for Alexander-Arnold to move back into his right-side position.
Then there’s the potential in Cody Gakpo to become the measured false nine that better suits Salah than the wild Nunez, who is perhaps too similar to Salah to build a long-term partnership.
Gakpo scored nine goals and assisted 12 in just 14 league matches for PSV Eindhoven in the first half of last season, before Liverpool snapped him up in January.
Slot was Feyenoord manager at the time. He is likely to be a big admirer of his compatriot.
But whomever Slot picks to partner Salah up front next season, there is a good chance that a fresh (and calmer) tactical approach – coupled with a long-overdue rest this summer – will get Salah firing again.
There’s certainly no need to panic. Salah, a Liverpool legend with 210 goals in 346 matches in all competitions, has been out of sorts for arguably just six Premier League matches, and at most a few months of 2024.
He will be back.
