What's happened to direct free-kick goals?

There have been just nine goals scored directly from free-kicks in the Premier League this season. Opta Analyst takes a look to see if the art of the set-piece specialist dying out.

The Premier League has been graced by some wonderful free-kick takers and dead-ball specialists down the years. David Beckham, Thierry Henry, Gianfranco Zola, Cristiano Ronaldo... and most recently, James Ward-Prowse.

Yet are free-kick goals dying out in England’s top flight?

There have been 1,166 goals scored in the Premier League this season, which is already the fourth-highest campaign on record, with 23 matches still left to play. Indeed, when only counting 380-match seasons, rather than 462, this is already the highest-scoring Premier League campaign.

But how many of those goals have come directly from free-kicks?

The answer is a meagre nine, which is the lowest number of free-kick goals since the start of the 2003/04 campaign.

And while there is still time for it all to change, of course, it is a remarkably low number compared to the total of shots, and the quality of attackers currently plying their trade in Europe’s toughest league. And to put it into further perspective, there were 18 direct free-kick goals scored last season.

Fewer goals from direct free-kicks

But, has there been a steady decline in the total free-kick goals year-on-year in the Premier League?

Between the start of the 2000/01 season and the end of the 2009/10 campaign, there were 321 goals scored directly from free-kicks, for an average of 32.1 per season. Yet in the following decade, that number dropped to 272, or 27.2 per season.

All-time Premier League free-kick takers

That drop off is even more stark since the start of the 2020/21 campaign, with only 59 free-kicks having ended up in the back of the net – an average of only 14.7 per season.

What could be the reasons for this?

Is it that, with more possession-based systems now in place, managers prefer their players to go short from free-kicks rather than go for goal? Perhaps.

Interestingly, since the start of the 2017/18 season, there has not been a single campaign where the shot tally from free-kicks was over 400, with the highest figure of 380 coming in 2018/19. Before 2017/18, there were never fewer than 400 shots from free-kicks across an individual season, going back to 2003/04.

This decline is demonstrated by the graphic below, which shows the percentage of final-third free-kicks that are struck directly at goal. Since 2008/09, there has been an approximate 10 per cent drop off.

Alongside this, the amount of final-third free-kicks per match has also dropped quite dramatically across the past 16 years.

Whereas between 2008/09 and 2010/11, there were over six final-third free-kicks per game on average, that has steadily decreased to hover just above four per match in the last few seasons.

However, despite there being less shots, the average free-kick distance from goal has actually decreased since 2008/09, to the tune of just over two metres, going from just under 29m out to around 26.5m out.

One might think the closer to goal, the better the chance, though?

It is not as though there are not still quality set-piece takers or free-kick specialists in the competition, either.

Sure, there’s no Beckham or Ronaldo, but Kieran Trippier, Bruno Fernandes and Trent Alexander-Arnold are just three players capable of planting free-kicks into the top corner, while if Ward-Prowse had a free-kick 25 yards out during his time at Southampton, it was as good as a penalty – albeit he is yet to score one in the league for West Ham United so far.

There have been 264 attempts directly from free-kicks across 2023/24, with those strikes coming with a cumulative Expected Goals (xG) of only 16 – a measly 0.06 per shot.

Which teams go for goal most often?

If possession-based systems equated to fewer free-kick shots, then you might expect Manchester City to be down the standings. Instead, Pep Guardiola’s team lead the way, with 23 attempts. And they also lead the league for direct free-kick goals, having netted three of them – Phil Foden has scored two, with both of those coming in April against Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion respectively – while Julian Alvarez got the other, in a defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers back in September.

Foden's free-kick v Brighton

Well, City do have the ball all of the time, and are almost always on the attack, so surely that means more fouls, and therefore more free-kicks? Well, not quite. City actually rank 11th for fouls won, but they are first for fouls won in the final third, with 120 – so, around 19 per cent of those free-kicks resulted in a direct shot. And, it’s still only three of 87 goals that have come from free-kicks for the reigning champions.

Next on the list for free-kick shots are Crystal Palace (20 – one goal), followed by Chelsea (19 – one goal), AFC Bournemouth (18 – zero goals) and Liverpool (18 – one goal). West Ham and Brentford come next, with 16 each, although while the Bees have scored twice, the Hammers have not managed to find the net.

Villa, who have had 15 free-kick attempts, are the only other team to have scored a goal from such situations this season, meaning, as it stands, the nine free-kick goals have been shared between only six sides.

Premier League 2023/24 free-kick goals

On the flip side, Arsenal have had a mere six shots directly from free-kicks in 2023/24 – the two title rivals are on polar opposite sides of the spectrum here.

Newcastle United, despite Trippier’s penchant for a banger, have only had seven such attempts (although their right-back’s injury issues may have played some part in that), which is level with Sheffield United, and no team to have had below 15 attempts has scored from a free-kick this season.

AFC Bournemouth (18), West Ham (16) and Manchester United (15) are the teams to have had at least that many attempts, but have failed to score.

Indeed, these free-kick goals have also come in flurries, too, with three coming in the space of 22 days in April – Foden’s pair plus Alexander-Arnold’s effort in Liverpool’s win at Fulham.

Alexander-Arnold's stunning strike v Fulham

Analysing this season’s free-kick goals in more detail, seven of them were scored from between 20-25 metres out, with Foden’s effort against Villa coming in at 25.2m. The only anomaly was John McGinn’s brilliant attempt against Man Utd back on Boxing Day, which was struck from 40m out and had an xG of just 0.02.

Of the nine goals, the one with the highest xG was Ivan Toney’s strike against Nottingham Forest, coming in at 0.11, though it is worth noting Forest goalkeeper Matt Turner did leave a gaping hole to his left that the Brentford star found.

Which players have tried their luck the most in 2023/24?

Unsurprisingly, Ward-Prowse leads the way, having taken 15 of West Ham's 16 free-kick shots, yet he has not converted any of them, having scored three league goals from 17 free-kick attempts last season.

Man City’s Alvarez has taken 13, scoring once, while Palace star Eberechi Eze has netted once from 12 efforts. Man Utd midfielder Fernandes has taken on 11, with Burnley’s Jacob Bruun Larsen going for glory on 10 occasions.

Foden has an exceptional conversion rate, putting away two of his three free-kick shots, while Brentford’s Mathias Jensen has scored one out of three, the same as Villa captain McGinn.

Raheem Sterling has converted one from four compared to the one from five of Alexander-Arnold and Toney's one from seven free-kicks.

Perhaps 2023/24 will prove to be an anomaly. Going back over recent seasons, though, the trend is clear. No longer can we expect to see 20+ goals netted from sensational free-kicks – they are instead becoming an increasingly rare commodity.