Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will Spurs capitalise on Arsenal's depleted midfield?
- Does Southampton's style favour Man Utd?
- Brighton's clear plan to attack Ipswich
- Aston Villa's Duran has Everton in his sights
- Can Brentford frustrate Man City?
- History beckons for Slot against Nott'm Forest
- Will Lopetegui finally make his mark on West Ham?
- Palace and Leicester seek first league win of season
- Can Wolves stop the rot?
- Another entertaining contest involving Chelsea?
How will Arsenal’s weakened midfield cope with Udogie & Porro?
Arsenal supporters are understandably fretting about Declan Rice’s suspension and injuries to Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino, especially against a narrow Tottenham Hotspur team who carve open weaker midfields via their inverted full-backs Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie.
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Thomas Partey and Jorginho should start together, but will the third midfielder be Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz, or 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri? Mikel Arteta, who signed a new long-term deal on Thursday, has a tough decision on his hands.
Yet judging by what happened in this fixture in April, the tactical side of things is just as important as the team selection.
Arteta gambled on a radical change in that match and it worked a charm: Arsenal sat ultra-deep, squeezed the middle, went long rather than passed out from the back – and were 3-0 up by half-time despite holding just 28 per cent possession.
This screenshot below from the match was typical of a first half that saw Arsenal break all their own rules in order to counteract a Spurs side who never compromise theirs.
The potential brittleness of an Arsenal midfield without Rice increases the likelihood Arteta will repeat the same tactic, shutting down Udogie and Porro and creating opportunities to get behind Spurs’ high line on the counter-attack.
However, Ange Postecoglou will be wary of the same reactive tactics from Arteta and he might not have to change much to do better than last time.
For starters, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr should be his central midfielders, instead of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur, who struggled in April.
The Spurs midfield is back to full strength, the Arsenal midfield is significantly weakened. That could swing the balance.
Is Saints’ football vulnerable to Man Utd approach?
After two weeks stewing on the 3-0 defeat by Liverpool, a trip to St Mary’s offers Manchester United a great opportunity to get back on their feet.
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All three Southampton matches this season have followed the same pattern: lots of possession and most of it in their own third, leaving them open to a turnover in a dangerous position.
They average the second-most possession in the Premier League (68.1 per cent) and have made the most errors leading to a goal, with four.
Erik ten Hag’s overarching plan is to pinch the ball high and attack quickly in straight lines. United top the Premier League charts for “direct attacks”, with 16, and tackles made, with 72. They are pretty much Southampton’s worst nightmare.
Those Man Utd tackling numbers should increase further if Manuel Ugarte is in the team. His 4.6 tackles per 90 were the second best in Europe’s top-five leagues last season.
Saints’ determination to play short passes out from the back could hand Ugarte the perfect start.
The tactical approach is clearly in Man Utd’s favour – which is why we should be wary of reading too much into the final result.
A heavy defeat for Southampton would probably be hailed as a turning point for Man Utd and shrugged off by Saints fans as one of those days.
It will be interesting to see if Russell Martin finally changes tack for this one. If he doesn’t, Saints fans have reason to be alarmed.
Will Minteh and Mitoma target Davis and Tuanzebe?
There’s another potential mismatch in the fixture list this weekend.
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Brighton & Hove Albion have been reimagined by Fabian Hurzeler as a team who love to dribble down the wings: Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh have been a constant threat, hence why the Seagulls sit second in the charts for attempted dribbles, with 65.
Ipswich Town have had a very difficult fixture list so far and held their own against Fulham, so we shouldn’t read too much into their start.
Nevertheless, there is a developing pattern that might concern Kieran McKenna.
In the 1-1 draw with Fulham, left-back Antonee Robinson had too much space to cross from the left for Adama Traore at the back post.
In the 4-1 loss at Manchester City, Leif Davis’ clumsy foul on Savinho conceded a penalty that let the hosts back in; and both goals in the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool came from Mohamed Salah turning Davis inside out.
Minteh and Mitoma versus Davis and Axel Tuanzebe is the obvious battle at Amex Stadium, and, when you add Joao Pedro, who like to drift out to the left flank, it’s clear how Brighton will attack Ipswich.
Will Duran condemn Everton to another defeat?
This is probably not the fixture Sean Dyche will have wanted to get over the devastation of the defeat to AFC Bournemouth.
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Aston Villa are unbeaten in 10 league meetings with Everton, winning seven while also keeping seven clean sheets. They were 4-0 winners in this fixture in August last season.
Worse still for Dyche, Everton's 10 goals conceded are more than anyone else and Villa have a striker with something to prove.
Ollie Watkins was forced to withdraw from the England squad for rehabilitation on an “ongoing issue” and is a doubt for Saturday, but even if he is passed fit, Jhon Duran might keep him out of the side.
Duran has scored seven Premier League goals in his career despite starting only three matches, averaging one every 96 minutes. His winning goals against West Ham United and Leicester City this season show he is chomping at the bit.
This could be his time. After the Leicester match, Villa captain John McGinn suggested “the penny had dropped” in Duran’s overall attitude at the club. Unai Emery has gone even further, according to Villa president Monchi.
“Unai is very confident with Jhon Duran,” Monchi said this week. “Very confident. He thinks he can become one of the best strikers in the world in the next 12 months. He is 100 per cent convinced.”
Will Brentford’s counters threaten at the Etihad?
The last time anyone won away at Man City in any competition was November 2022, when Brentford beat Pep Guardiola’s side 2-1.
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The Bees have looked back to their old selves so far in 2024/25, led by a blossoming partnership between Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, who have both scored twice already in the Premier League this season.
Brentford will sit back - their pressing per defensive action (PPDA) of 16.7, which measures how much a team press, is the highest in the division.
They will also look to crowd Erling Haaland, as they did so brilliantly in that 2-1 win – and in the narrow 1-0 defeat last season, when Haaland finally broke the deadlock in the 71st minute only because Kristoffer Ajer slipped and fell over to leave the Norwegian with a 1v1.
Highlights from Brentford's win in 2022/23
Thomas Frank will use the same ideas – the same back three – to frustrate Man City, and then hope for something special from Mbeumo and Wissa. It’s a long shot, but it’s on the cards.
Can Slot make history at Anfield?
No Premier League manager has won each of their first four matches in charge without conceding a single goal. Arne Slot has the chance to make history on Saturday.
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Four wins and four clean sheets from the first four matches of a season has happened four times in English top-flight history, but only twice this century.
Liverpool are looking to add to Villa in 1900/01, Ipswich in 1974/75, Chelsea in 2005/06 and Man City in 2015/16.
It won’t be easy. Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in four Premier League matches, winning two. It’s their longest run under Nuno Espirito Santo, whose counter-attacking football is really taking hold.
Forest have registered 10 direct attacks, more than any other side in the Premier League this season.
Saturday will be a good test of whether Slot’s system really is effective at shutting down breaks.
Will we see "Lopetegui football" for the first time?
Julen Lopetegui hasn’t managed to put his stamp on the West Ham team yet.
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Matches against Villa and Man City have restricted their ability to play his possession-dominant football, but that does not explain the 42 per cent possession at Crystal Palace or the lack of indicators in other key metrics.
Lopetegui’s Sevilla side were consistently in the top three (normally behind Real Madrid and Barcelona) for possession share, completed crosses and the fewest goals conceded.
It’s early days and the sample size is small, but we are yet to see any signs of this at West Ham.
Sevilla and West Ham under Lopetegui
| Sevilla 21/22 | West Ham 24/25 | |
| Possession | 59.4% (3rd) | 41.2% (16th) |
|---|---|---|
| Completed crosses | 112 (3rd) | 5 (=10th) |
| Goals conceded | 30 (1st) | 5 (=12th) |
League rank in brackets
Sevilla were renowned for using slow possession domination to maintain a sturdy defence, whereas West Ham have been pinned back by Villa and Palace – and have so far faced the second-most shots in the Premier League, with 54.
When Lopetegui was in charge of Wolverhampton Wanderers, only the traditional “Big Six” and Brighton recorded more 10+ open-play passing sequences than his team’s 227, but so far in 2024/25 only seven clubs have recorded fewer than West Ham’s 24 sequences.
Lopetegui has had two weeks to smooth out the wrinkles and refine the approach. We will see the results on Saturday, when a trip to Fulham offers the chance to play the Lopetegui way.
Will first goal be decisive in crucial clash?
This is a big match hidden on Saturday afternoon. Neither Palace nor Leicester have won a Premier League match this season.
Both will see this as an ideal moment to get off the mark and, most likely, it will all come down to who scores first.
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Leicester have gone behind in all of their matches so far – and so have Palace, who are yet to win any of the seven matches under Oliver Glasner in which they conceded first.
That first goal is vital, then, both for this match and probably the season as a whole.
Palace have Man Utd, Liverpool and Spurs in their next three at Selhurst Park, so Glasner could really do with a victory before the going gets tough.
As for Leicester, Steve Cooper needs to build some momentum ahead of a huge match at home to Everton next weekend.
Can Wolves get win needed to stop the rot?
Few seem to have noticed that Gary O’Neil’s Wolves side are in a bit of a slump.
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They have won only one of their last 13 Premier League matches (2-1 at home to Luton Town), are winless in their last six, and have lost five of their last six games at Molineux.
Worryingly, their next five matches after Newcastle are very difficult, including home encounters with Liverpool and Man City.
Newcastle are back on the up, yet this is one of the most winnable matches Wolves have until Palace at home on 2 November, at which point they could be in the relegation zone with no wins from the first 10 Matchweeks.
O’Neil needs a big result on Sunday.
Will Chelsea get embroiled in another end-to-end match?
Chelsea’s style of play is a little chaotic to say the least, making for entertaining matches. Saturday's fixture against Bournemouth looks set up to be another of them.
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Bournemouth sit third in the Premier League for Expected Goals (xG), with 5.85, and have had the third-most shots on goal, with 46.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League away matches and let in 36 in total during that run, with their last clean sheet coming against Burnley in October 2023.
Indeed, there have been 21 goals in the six matches involving Bournemouth or Chelsea in 2024/25, partly because both teams seem to be embracing fast transitions.
Chelsea top the charts for “fast breaks”, with 10, while Bournemouth are up in fourth for PPDA, with 9.7, telling us this could be another frantic match similar to the Blues' 6-2 victory at Wolves.
