How Duran is rivalling Watkins to be Aston Villa's first choice

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 4.

Player analysis: Jhon Duran (Aston Villa)

Villa's super sub forward, Duran, is pushing hard for a place in Unai Emery’s starting XI at home to Everton on Saturday.

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The Colombian international, 20, has come off the bench twice to score winning goals at West Ham United and Leicester City, outshining Ollie Watkins across their first three matches of 2024/25.

It was previously unthinkable for the England international’s place to be under threat, especially after scoring 19 Premier League goals and recording 13 assists in 2023/24.

Hence why, Duran has struggled for starts with 35 of his 38 appearances for Villa coming as a substitute.

But with Watkins' poor form and the fast-improving Duran making an impact, could Emery’s selection policy change?

Duran's minutes per PL goal compared

*Min five goals

On a minutes-per-goal basis, Duran, with 96, is second only to Erling Haaland's 80 across the history of the Premier League.

Currently scoring at a faster rate than legends such as Sergio Aguero, Thierry Henry, Duran's astonishing record is beginning to make people sit up and take notice.

Six of his seven league goals have come as a sub, which explains why he has such an impressive hit rate, while in one of just three Premier League starts he scored for Villa last season.

That was a terrific left-footed finish against Manchester City away last season after a clever one-two on the edge of the box (below).

Duran also scored in two of his five starts in last season’s UEFA Conference League.

Hitting the target

Duran’s left foot and heading ability are weapons that rival teams need to be wary of this season.

Coupling explosive power with precision, Duran has a wonderful record whenever his shots ask questions of the goalkeeper.

Scoring seven goals from just 10 attempts that have hit the target since the start of 2023/24, he has outscored his Expected Goals (xG) of 2.74 by a phenomenal margin.

Watkins has also been largely excellent since the beginning of the previous campaign, scoring 19 times.

But when you compare his shot placement map, it shows that opposition keepers deny him on a more frequent basis than Duran.

Watkins is also scoring goals at around the same rate as his xG.

How Duran is outperforming Watkins

Watkins has had three gilt-edged opportunities to open his account in 2024/25, missing twice against Arsenal and again versus Leicester City when Mads Hermansen saved his effort from a 1v1.

Watkins' chance v Arsenal

Villa supporters are accustomed to their first-choice striker tucking those chances away, so his confidence levels will be a mild cause of concern ahead of this Everton clash.

What might be potentially more alarming is Watkins’ overall performance levels.

The 28-year-old is seeing less of the ball, taking fewer shots and winning a reduced number of duels compared to last season.

Emery may also note how much better Duran’s numbers are before making his selection for Saturday’s encounter.

Watkins compared to Duran

During his cameo appearances from the bench, Duran has been getting far more involved in the build-up play, knitting moves together with quality.

He has also been far more physical in individual duels.

These two examples from the 2-1 win at Leicester, where he used his strength to outmuscle defenders, outline the different type of qualities he provides.

For this shot on target (below), Duran backs into Wout Faes, before rolling him on the edge of the area.

And shortly before heading in Villa’s winning goal, he got away from Faes inside the box to create room for himself to latch onto the cross.

Duran's goal v Leicester

In the past, Watkins’ brilliant movement has always given him an advantage over fellow forwards, and while that aspect of his play remains a great asset, Duran is catching up.  

Duran has been making a lot more first and secondary runs as decoys, before darting away from his markers.  

We saw that when he had an effort blocked against Arsenal, and the way he angled his secondary run to stay onside before scoring at West Ham also showcased how much he has learned from Emery’s coaching.

His first movement was towards Max Kilman, before sprinting in behind to release himself for a 1v1 from Lucas Digne’s pass.  

What happens now? 

Emery has a difficult call to make this weekend.  

Duran is fast becoming one of English football’s hottest young prospects and his form is significantly better than Watkins, who has not looked himself.  

We may see the pair play alongside one another late on in matches when Villa need a goal, but with Morgan Rogers offering so much with and without the ball at the moment, I sense it will be a straight choice between Duran and Watkins for the time being.  

Duran’s amazing record as a substitute perhaps counts against him, with Emery always confident he can make an impression late on. 

But it is becoming harder and harder to leave him on the bench.

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