Why are Man City more vulnerable at the back this season?

Football writer Alex Keble looks at why champions Manchester City have conceded eight goals in their opening seven matches - including five in their last three outings - and have only kept one clean sheet.

Ordinarily at this time of the year there would be no reason to scrutinise any part of Man City’s season, especially not an undefeated Premier League start that leaves Pep Guardiola’s side just one point off the top of the table.

But beneath the surface something feels a little different about Man City’s fourth consecutive title defence.

Fulham’s Expected Goals (xG) tally of 2.60 on Saturday was the third-highest figure by an away team at the Etihad Stadium since Guardiola’s arrival.

Man City's highest xG faced under Guardiola

A week earlier, the champions' 1-1 draw with Newcastle United felt only marginally less defensively vulnerable, fitting an emerging pattern that suggests Man City aren’t quite as secure as they used to be.

Man City’s defence has declined in 2024/25

Opta’s Expected Points table has Man City on 12.86 points, which means they are overperforming against their Expected Points numbers by 4.14 points, the second-highest number in the Premier League, after Arsenal's 4.98.

Top teams for Expected Points 2024/25

This suggests a more accurate reflection of Man City’s performances would be 13 points from seven matches, or four wins, one draw, and two defeats.

It’s not difficult to work out why.

Man City have "lost" on xG in three of their seven matches so far this season, against Chelsea, Newcastle and Fulham.

Man City's xG v PL opponents 2024/25

That means Man City have recorded a lower xG than their opponent in every Premier League match played against a current top-10 team – besides Arsenal, who came within minutes of beating City despite playing half a match with 10 men.

Those are not encouraging headline figures, and neither is the deeper analysis.

Man City are averaging an Expected Goals Against (xGA) number greater than 1.0 per match for the first time under Guardiola.

Similarly, their average Expected Goals On Target (xGOT) against – which measures the shot after it was taken, therefore taking into account the quality of the shot on goal – is 26 per cent higher than last season and almost double City’s peak in 2018/19.

Man City's season averages under Guardiola

Impact of Rodri’s injury

The main factor explaining the shift is, of course, the loss of Rodri.

Rodri has played just 65 minutes of Premier League football this season, and although his on-the-ball qualities can perhaps be replaced by Mateo Kovacic – as his brace against Fulham suggests – nobody at Man City can replicate the Spaniard's defensive work.

In short, Man City have a hole in midfield. They miss Rodri’s ability to intercept a move, his anticipation of danger and his work screening the defence against counter-attacks, as City’s drop in a number of key metrics indicates.

Man City's defensive stats last two seasons

We have clearly seen the impact of this in City’s last two matches, when Newcastle and Fulham have passed too easily through central midfield, allowing them to feed balls in behind the high City line.

In the draw with Newcastle, Kovacic was caught out of position, allowing Bruno Guimaraes to feed Anthony Gordon through on goal, leading to the penalty from which Eddie Howe’s side equalised.

Gordon wins penalty v Man City

In the Fulham encounter there were too many examples to mention.

Here, Kovacic is nutmegged by Adama Traore in his own half and, after a one-two, Traore beats Kyle Walker for pace to go clean through.

In this example, in the build-up to Rodrigo Muniz’s late consolation goal, there is not enough pressure on the ball in the Man City midfield.

Muniz's goal v Man City

There were many more occasions when Fulham were able to outmanoeuvre Kovacic and launch a counter-attack behind the Man City midfield.

Guardiola needs to find a way to adapt

Man City cannot allow the pattern of these last two Premier League matches to continue, and with Rodri out for the foreseeable future, Guardiola must find a way to rebalance his central midfield, and fast.

There are several tough encounters in City’s next six matches, yet given what we saw against Fulham, even bottom-half clubs like Wolverhampton Wanderers and AFC Bournemouth – both strong on the counter-attack – pose a threat.

Man City's next six PL matches

Manchester City

14:00 Sun 20 Oct WOL (A) 15:00 Sat 26 Oct SOU (H) 15:00 Sat 02 Nov BOU (A) 17:30 Sat 09 Nov BHA (A) 17:30 Sat 23 Nov TOT (H) 16:00 Sun 01 Dec LIV (A)

Manchester City

14:00 Sun 20 Oct WOL (A) 15:00 Sat 26 Oct SOU (H) 15:00 Sat 02 Nov BOU (A) 17:30 Sat 09 Nov BHA (A) 17:30 Sat 23 Nov TOT (H) 16:00 Sun 01 Dec LIV (A)

It won’t be easy to fix the Rodri gap, but if anyone in world football can do it, it’s Guardiola.