How Fulham have been transformed from yo-yo club to European hopefuls

Once stuck in a cycle of promotion and relegation, Fulham are now firmly established in the Premier League. It's a moment worth savouring for a club that's come a long way, writes Ryan Benson of Opta Analyst.

There aren’t many happier places to be in the Premier League right now than Fulham. A feel-good factor is sweeping through the club this season, inspiring positivity, optimism and even ambition. 

Supporters are delighted. They play entertaining football and the team is full of players the fans appreciate, whether that’s represented by the star quality of Emile Smith Rowe, the playfulness of Calvin Bassey or the positive mentality of super-sub Harry Wilson. 

Sure, it’s not all been perfect, but does such a thing even exist in football? Fulham are looking at the bigger picture, enjoying the position and moment they find themselves in, only too aware of the fragility of contentment at this level. 

After all, it wasn’t so long ago that Fulham were yo-yoing between the Championship and Premier League in a kind of parachute payment purgatory – now, though, it feels like they’ve properly established themselves as a top-flight club again. 

With gazes trained upwards rather than towards the foot of the table now, one man in particular deserves special praise. 

Silva's impact 

Some massive jobs in the Premier League have been available through 2024, but for whatever reason, Marco Silva hasn’t been seriously mentioned as a candidate for any of them. 

Some will be adamant he hasn’t done – or won – enough to warrant being in contention for jobs at Liverpool, Manchester United or Chelsea. Who’s to say? Maybe that is the case; but, for argument’s sake, did Enzo Maresca really do anything that Silva hasn’t before getting the job at Stamford Bridge? 

Silva has arguably completed one of the most difficult feats in modern-day English football: establishing a team in the Premier League after earning promotion. 

The 47-year-old took time out after an ultimately ill-fated spell in charge of Everton, but returned to England with a point to prove, taking over at Craven Cottage in July 2021. Fulham had just been relegated from the Premier League for the second time in three seasons, with neither Scott Parker nor Slavisa Jokanovic (and successor Claudio Ranieri) able to keep the Cottagers in the top tier. 

Silva succeeded, however. He guided them to promotion playing an attack-minded, possession-based style and then kept them up, comfortably, adapting his tactics quite significantly in the process as Fulham finished 10th during their first season back. They also recorded 52 points, a total they’ve only ever bettered once in the Premier League, when they ended with 53 points in 2008/09.

Fulham's best points totals in PL

*Projected points total and finishing position

They then finished 13th in 2023/24, never looking in danger of being pulled into a relegation battle. And the early signs in 2024/25 suggest progress is a real possibility. 

Could they really challenge for a European place? The smart money would lean towards no, simply because their squad isn’t as deep as their rivals – but make no mistake, Silva’s achievement of firmly cementing Fulham in the top flight again isn’t something to be taken lightly. 

Mixing it up 

Fulham’s strength arguably lies in their balance and flexibility.

Not only are they capable of playing attractive, entertaining football without finding themselves exposed defensively, but the Cottagers are also comfortable mixing things up. 

It helps make them less predictable and similarly serves them well when adapting to different opponents with varying strengths and weaknesses of their own. 

For instance, while Fulham deviated from the possession-focused style that got them promoted from the Championship in 2022, there are undoubtedly still hints of that past that come to the fore. 

Their 31 build-up attacks (open-play sequences with at least 10 passes ending with either a shot or a touch in the box) is the eighth-highest in the Premier League this season, though only Liverpool and Aston Villa (four each) have seen more such moves end in a goal than Fulham (three). Similarly, they rank sixth for all sequences of 10+ passes, with a total of 139. 

At the same time, Fulham have also registered the second-most (31) direct attacks (open-play sequences starting just inside their own half which have at least 50 per cent movement towards the opposition’s goal and end with a shot or touch in the area) and rank joint-fourth for goals from such situations, with two. 

Not unrelated to that, Fulham have managed 62 shots in transition (defined as the number of times an attempt is registered against a transitioning defence) this season, the fourth-most in the Premier League. They also pose a significant threat on the counter-attack, thanks to their pace and the number of positive ball carriers at their disposal; their 13 shot-ending fast breaks is bettered by only three teams. 

This all highlights how Silva has moulded Fulham into a team who can test opponents in several ways, meaning they’re not completely reliant on one strategy. Just look at their recent 3-2 defeat at Manchester City, a game they were unfortunate to lose; they didn’t have as much of the ball as they’re used to, and yet they tore City to shreds in transition. Of course, that didn't equate to any points, but it was a game that showed how vibrant they can be. 

And yet, Silva largely has Fulham playing in a way that doesn’t compromise them defensively, with the chances they’ve conceded this season worth an Expected Goals (xG) of 12.8, the fourth-lowest in the division. 

A triumph in recruitment and coaching 

Whether a team’s doing well or poorly, it’s impossible to ignore the importance of recruitment, and you have to say Fulham appear to have done a splendid job over the past few years. 

There are players like Bassey, Bernd Leno, Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore, who’ve perhaps fallen out of favour or seen their levels drop elsewhere.

Then you’ve got individuals linked with bigger clubs that they’ve managed to lure to Craven Cottage, such as Joachim Andersen and Sander Berge, and then there are those like Andreas Pereira, Smith Rowe, Alex Iwobi and Reiss Nelson, who’ve always been regarded as talented but not been able (yet) to find their way at the very top for various reasons. 

Granted, several of those deals might’ve been considered risky at the time, but Silva’s coaching has obviously had a positive impact on a lot of players during his spell in charge. 

Being able to identify talent is one thing, but managing to consistently improve players requires excellent coaching, and many can say they’ve improved at Fulham while working under Silva. 

That’s why it seemed a smart decision on Smith Rowe’s part to join Fulham from Arsenal in the summer. His ability has never been in question, and many would say he’s good enough to play for the Gunners. But now 24, it was unlikely he was going to fulfil his potential while playing back-up to Martin Odegaard. 

Most importantly, Smith Rowe is playing football, having seemingly overcome his injury issues. He’s already played 805 minutes in the league this season, more than double the 346 he managed last season, and comfortably more than combined total of 508 across the 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns.

He’s averaging 0.56 goal involvements per 90 minutes in the Premier League, a rate he’s never bettered during a season in which he’s played at least 165 minutes.

His influence goes a bit deeper, though, with only Iwobi (60) playing a part in more shot-ending sequences than Smith Rowe (50) in the Fulham squad. On a per 90 minutes basis, they’re practically neck and neck, with 5.7 and 5.6 respectively. 

Iwobi is another player thriving under Silva, the manager also who signed him at Everton. In fact, Silva reckons Iwobi is playing the best football of his career since the start of 2023/24. 

This season, Iwobi’s 22 chances created in open play is bettered only by the 24 of both Dejan Kulusevski and Cole Palmer.

He also ranks third in the division for xG assisted (3.2), which equates to the xG value of the shots following chance-creating passes. He’s clearly managing to find team-mates in dangerous positions. 

But it’s also pertinent to highlight how Fulham have made light of losing Joao Palhinha.

The Portugal international, who moved to Bayern Munich in the summer, may be limited in some respects, but the work he got through off the ball was significant, registering the most tackles of all Premier League players in each of the past two seasons. 

And yet, Fulham are facing fewer shots per game this season (12.3) and their average xG against is considerably lower at 1.16 each match – it was 1.70 in 2023/24. Of course, we’ll only know how little it’s impacted them when the full season has played out, but so far, so good, and this reflects well on Silva. 

Gains to be made 

As good a job as Silva is doing, and as promising as Fulham’s form has been this season, no team’s perfect. 

If there’s one area where the data suggests there are gains to be had, it’s at set-pieces – or specifically, corners. 

Last season, Fulham were one of the most effective sides in the Premier League at corners.

They scored five goals with shots that were the first involvement at a corner, behind only Arsenal (eight) and West Ham (seven), while the Cottagers recorded a total of 10 goals from passages of play beginning with a corner – seven teams managed more, though only one of those (Arsenal, with 16) went beyond 12. 

This season, they’re the only team in the league yet to score from any set-piece, while only Fulham, West Ham and Southampton haven’t netted at all from corners. 

For Fulham, this is despite them having comfortably the greatest proportion of corners leading to a shot with the first involvement (33.9 per cent); they also find a team-mate for the first contact most often of all Premier League teams (53.9 per cent). 

While it might be tempting to blame the frequency of outswinging corners (and they do deliver proportionately more in this way than any other team), that hasn’t been an issue before. 

The major discrepancies in the data between this season and last are the fact they’re currently playing 23.1 per cent of their corners to the outer penalty area zone, compared to just 8.0 per cent in 2023/24, while only 12.3 per cent of corners are being aimed towards the front-post inner area zone (just outside the six-yard box), down from 21.2 per cent last season.

So, this means front-post corners (all zones) are down from 37.3 per cent in 2023/24 to 27.7 per cent in 2024/25.

This is interesting because four of their five goals from corner first involvements last season came from the group of front-post zones. It might be that other teams caught on and are crowding that particular area, or it could be that Fulham are trying to be more varied. Either way, they’re playing catch-up with almost everyone else.

Exceeding expectations

Potential set-piece questions aside, the outlook for Fulham after 11 matches this season is pretty positive. That’s a point rammed home by the Expected Points table.

Opta’s Expected Points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the xG value of all shots taken.

It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The Expected Points for each team in every match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

It’s not an exact science, as xG data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it can still give us a good guide as to how teams are performing over a prolonged time.

The real Premier League table has Fulham seventh with 18 points, which is good going anyway. But in the Expected Points table, Fulham move up to fourth, behind only Liverpool, Manchester City and Spurs. 

Their average Expected Points tally is 18.6, suggesting the few teams directly above them have been slightly more fortunate over the early months of the season. 

It’s not as if the simulation model now calculates that Fulham are likely to finish fourth, but their start to the season has resulted in their projected end-of-season points tally being 6.1 better off now (54.1) than it was before a ball was kicked in August (48.0) – only Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and Brighton & Hove Albion have seen their outlook improve by more. 

Of course, we have to also accept the reality of the Premier League this season: it’s incredibly tight. Four points separate Chelsea in third and Manchester United in 13th, making it the tightest the competition has ever been around mid table at this stage of a campaign. 

Premier League

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
3	Chelsea CHE	11	+8	19
4	Arsenal ARS	11	+6	19
5	Nott'm Forest NFO	11	+5	19
6	Brighton BHA	11	+4	19
7	Fulham FUL	11	+3	18
8	Newcastle NEW	11	+2	18
9	Aston Villa AVL	11	0	18
10	Spurs TOT	11	+10	16
11	Brentford BRE	11	0	16
12	Bournemouth BOU	11	0	15
13	Man Utd MUN	11	0	15

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So, one defeat could see Fulham tumble as many as six places, just as it’s possible another win takes them up to third. 

Getting carried away at this stage of a season is unwise in any season, but even more so in 2024/25. Nevertheless, Fulham have much to be optimistic about at this point, and they know better than most that you must enjoy these moments while you can. 

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