A hectic spell of 90 Premier League matches in only 45 days starts from this Saturday and while the title race is shaping up, so too is the battle at the opposite end of the table, as football writer Alex Keble explains.
As we get ready for the busy winter schedule and four months of uninterrupted Premier League football, all eyes are on the top half of the table.
The title race is heating up, competition for European places feels more open than ever, and a new head coach taking over at Manchester United draws focus.
But the relegation battle is just as interesting.
There are seven clubs currently at risk of going down. Everyone below Man Utd is in danger.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
West Ham
WHU
|
17 | -8 | 20 |
| 15 |
Everton
EVE
|
16 | -7 | 16 |
| 16 |
Crystal Palace
CRY
|
17 | -8 | 16 |
| 17 |
Leicester
LEI
|
17 | -16 | 14 |
| 18 |
Wolves
WOL
|
17 | -13 | 12 |
| 19 |
Ipswich
IPS
|
17 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |
Southampton
SOU
|
17 | -25 | 6 |
Here, we look at who is likeliest to fare well in the run-up to Christmas.
Promoted clubs are stronger this season
Last season all three promoted clubs - Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United - went back down. Only Luton made it to the final day with hopes of staying up, albeit needing to beat Fulham and requiring Burnley to defeat Nottingham Forest, along with a 12-goal swing. Ultimately, all three were relegated with fewer than 30 points.
That is not going to happen this time.
Leicester City have a talented spine of Wilfred Ndidi, Facundo Buonanotte and Jamie Vardy, plus an experienced manager in Steve Cooper. They are picking up plenty of points.
Likewise, Ipswich Town have been competitive in most of their matches, losing fewer than half of their Premier League contests and getting their first win of the season last time out, while Southampton - although at the foot of the table - are growing in self-assurance.
Perhaps, then, the Premier League will move back towards its average, which over the last 10 years has been 1.4 promoted teams going straight back down.
No. of promoted teams relegated last 10 seasons
| Season | Relegated clubs | Season | Relegated clubs |
| 14/15 | 2 | 19/20 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/16 | 0 | 20/21 | 2 |
| 16/17 | 2 | 21/22 | 2 |
| 17/18 | 0 | 22/23 | 0 |
| 18/19 | 2 | 23/24 | 3 |
That is potentially bad news for Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace, who find themselves in the relegation zone and will hope for a decline from Leicester and Ipswich above them.
But since 1995/96, only 56 per cent of the teams who have ended the day in the bottom three after playing their 11th match of the season have gone on to be relegated.
We shouldn’t read too much into the current state of play, then. There will be plenty of twists and turns ahead.
What do the mini-league and xPoints tables tell us?
Often it’s the head-to-heads between the strugglers that ultimately decide who goes down, and the six-pointers so far show a clear pattern.
Everton have already played five of the six other teams in the seven-club mini-league and have come out with a very respectable eight points, beating Ipswich and Palace, drawing with Leicester and West Ham United, and losing to Southampton.
Most points in head-to-heads among bottom seven
| Team | Matches | Points |
| Everton | 5 | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 3 | 7 |
| Leicester | 4 | 5 |
| Wolves | 2 | 4 |
| Southampton | 4 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 4 | 2 |
| Ipswich | 4 | 2 |
It puts Sean Dyche’s side in a strong position to continue their rise up the table. Since losing their first four matches of the season, Everton have collected 10 points from their last seven games, conceding a meagre two goals in their last five Premier League matches.
If anyone is going to rise out of the basement battle altogether, Everton appear the likeliest.
On the basis of the mini-league above, it doesn't look quite so promising for Southampton, Palace and Ipswich, although Opta’s Expected Points (xPoints) table gives Oliver Glasner’s side some hope.
xPoints are based on Expected Goals data, indicating where teams "should" be placed if they scored and conceded goals according to the quality of chances they create and give away.
The table makes for ominous reading for the promoted clubs, while showing that Palace and West Ham are performing better than results suggest. West Ham also score well in the mini-league, with seven points from three matches.
On this basis, a bit more luck - or slight improvements to their finishing - could be all it takes for Palace and the Hammers to get out of the battle at the bottom.
Expected Points for bottom seven clubs
| Team | Actual pts | Expected pts |
| Crystal Palace | 7.00 | 12.98 |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 12.00 | 12.98 |
| Everton | 10.00 | 12.37 |
| Wolves | 6.00 | 10.12 |
| Leicester | 10.00 | 9.91 |
| Southampton | 4.00 | 8.72 |
| Ipswich | 8.00 | 7.43 |
Festive fixtures favour Wolves and West Ham
West Ham also have one of the kindest-looking set of fixtures in the run-up to Christmas, with Arsenal the only side they face in the current top five.
Put it all together and West Ham, who arguably have the strongest squad of the bottom seven, appear to only be in the relegation fight temporarily.
West Ham's next six PL fixtures
Of the other contenders, Wolves look to have the friendliest set of fixtures, facing four of their fellow relegation candidates, plus Fulham and AFC Bournemouth in their next six.
Considering Wolves are on a three-match unbeaten run and beat Southampton 2-0 last time out - their first win of the season - there is a real chance that Gary O’Neil’s side could claw their way out of the bottom three by Christmas Day.
Wolves' next six PL fixtures
And so, Wolves fans join those of Everton, West Ham and Palace in having justified cause for optimism.
The Premier League mainstays appear to be in stronger positions moving forward than the three promoted clubs.
That does not mean they will pull away, but it does mean the next six weeks are pivotal in this season’s relegation battle.
