How is the title race shaping up after latest twists and turns?

Football writer Ben Bloom looks at the latest twists and turns in the Premier League title race and what lies ahead after the international break.

What a difference a few weeks make. The last time the Premier League paused for the international break in mid-October a repeat of last season’s three-way tussle for the title had already emerged, with just one point separating league leaders Liverpool from Manchester City and Arsenal.

But as players jet off around the world to represent their countries once again, the landscape looks entirely different this time around.

With Arsenal winless in their last four Premier League matches and Man City suffering back-to-back losses against AFC Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion, Arne Slot’s Liverpool have continued racking up the points.

They saw off Aston Villa last weekend to open up a five-point lead at the top of the table, with Chelsea and Arsenal a further four points behind following their 1-1 draw on Sunday.

Premier League

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	15	+18	36
2	Chelsea CHE	16	+18	34
3	Arsenal ARS	17	+18	33
4	Nott'm Forest NFO	17	+4	31
5	Aston Villa AVL	17	0	28

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So what does it all mean for the title race? Has it already been whittled down to just two potential winners?

What does Premier League history suggest?

The start of Slot’s Liverpool reign has exceeded all expectations. His side have picked up 28 points from a possible 33 for Liverpool’s second-best tally at this stage of a Premier League campaign, after their title-winning season in 2019/20.

On that occasion, they had 31 points and a six-point lead after Matchweek 11, before going on to win the title by a huge 18-point margin.

The omens are promising for the Reds.

Slot’s team are only the sixth in Premier League history to be at least five points clear after 11 matches. All of the previous five went on to win the title: Manchester United in 1993/94, Chelsea in 2005/06, Man City in 2011/12, Man City again in 2017/18, and Liverpool in 2019/20.

Of the 11 teams who have matched or exceeded Liverpool’s current points haul of 28 at this stage of the season, only three did not become champions.

Unsurprisingly, the weight of history is against Arsenal and Chelsea, who are now nine points off top spot. Never before have a team been more than eight points behind the leaders after 11 matches and gone on to win the title.

But it is worth noting that teams have overcome bigger deficits later on in the season. In fact, eight Premier League champions have made up a gap of either nine points or more at some stage later in the campaign than this.

The biggest fightback saw Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal overhaul Man Utd’s 13-point lead after 19 matches of the 1997/98 season to be crowned champions.

Man City similarly fought back from eight-point deficits after 28 matches in 2022/23 and 17 matches in 2023/24 to win the title.

City may have lost four matches in a row in all competitions – a first (excluding penalty shootouts) for Pep Guardiola in his career – but they have nonetheless made one of their better starts under their current manager, and they tend to flourish at the back end of a season. They have lost just four times in the Premier League after Christmas across the past three campaigns.

Arsenal fans will need little reminding that their team spent 248 days at the top of the Premier League in 2022/23, only to miss out to Man City at the death.

Have any of the contenders had it easier than others?

Asked last week about Arsenal’s recent struggles, Mikel Arteta insisted no other team in the Premier League had faced as tough a challenge as his.

“There are other things,” he said. “The level of opposition that we have played, because nobody has played the away games that we’ve played this season, and certainly not in the condition of playing half of those games with 10 men.”

While the red cards are entirely self-inflicted, does the Arsenal manager have a point regarding fixture strength?

Here you can see the average league position of the opponents that each of the top four teams have faced so far - home, away and overall. The lower the average is, the higher their opponents faced so far are currently placed in the league table. 

Average league position of opponents so far

Perhaps Arteta is on to something, particularly when it comes to the difficulty of his side's away matches.

Arsenal’s average opposition on their travels ranks 7.3, after their trips to Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Man City, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Chelsea. 

That is virtually twice as difficult as Liverpool’s average of 14.2, with the Reds beating the likes of Ipswich Town, Crystal Palace and Wolves away from Anfield.

What about the upcoming fixtures? 

Each club face eight more matches before the halfway stage of the season.

Always a tricky period before and immediately after Christmas, does the fixture list offer any solace to any particular top-four club?

Unsurprisingly, given their slightly trickier fixtures so far, Chelsea and Arsenal look to have an easier task awaiting them when they return from international duty.

Arsenal are not even required to leave London on their Premier League travels, and they only face two top-half teams home or away before the halfway stage of the season, while Chelsea face three.

Ominously though, there is no treacherous period ahead for Liverpool either.

League position of upcoming opponents

What do the managers say?

Liverpool head coach Arne Slot

“We know it’s a long season where we have to continuously be on top of our game because the likes of Arsenal, City and Chelsea and all these other clubs are able to win just as many games as we did in the first 15 to 16 games.

“So, we have to stay on top of our game, which is never going to be easy but we’ll push for it as much as we can.”

Man City manager Pep Guardiola

“Maybe after seven years winning six Premier Leagues, maybe one year another team deserve it.”

He later added: “Today in the press conference I was asked if it was the end of the era. I know people want that. I smell it for many, many years.

“What we have done in these years, people have said it’s so difficult, but if somebody would like to beat us it is going to happen because in the next 50 years we’re not going to win all the Premier Leagues. It’s impossible.”

Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca

“For me, we are behind these kinds of clubs like City and Arsenal as they’ve worked every day with the same manager.

“We are behind them, but Chelsea is one of the biggest clubs in the world and we need to compete and try to win games. We tried to compete and very soon we will win these kinds of games.”

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta

“Win, win and win because these guys, they don’t stop winning, so that’s what we have to do.

“When it gets nasty, show your teeth and show how much you want it. When it’s Disneyland, it’s easy, everyone is next to you and telling you how beautiful you are and when it gets dark and difficult, everyone is questioning it. That’s when I want to see people, that’s when I’m always looking around.”

What do the pundits think? 

Former Arsenal midfielder Paul Merson believes Arteta’s side are one more defeat away from their title challenge ending.

“It’s a start, it’s a base,” he told Sky Sports after the 1-1 draw at Chelsea. “He’s [Arteta] got to get the players fit now, he’s got to fuel the tank up, that’s the main thing.

“They’ve got to get on a run. They’ve got to make sure this goes down to six points before it gets to 12 points. If it gets to 12, goodnight.”

Fellow ex-Arsenal player Theo Walcott suggests it would still be too soon to rule any of the big clubs out of lifting the Premier League Trophy next May.

“I would not write off anyone who is up there now, absolutely not,” he told the BBC. “Liverpool at some point are going to stumble and they will have injury problems like every other team.”

On Arsenal’s tribulations, Walcott added: “The difference with Arsenal at this moment in time is that they are lacking in goals, while they are not conceding many.

“But at this point of the season it’s important to factor in who they have played. I would say that, so far, they have played tougher teams – they have played six of last season’s top 10, and five of those games have been away from home.

“Plus, most of the time they have been without their main player, Martin Odegaard, and they are still where they are.

“People tend to forget all of that when they look into how Arsenal are not playing at the same level they were at last year, but for me it is one of the reasons not to write them off in the title race.”

Sky Sports pundit Jamie Redknapp says Liverpool have a “big advantage” over the chasing pack.

“It’s going to go all the way because we’ve already seen anyone can beat anyone,” he said. “What Liverpool have in their favour is that Arsenal have to go there as well. That’s a big advantage. Going to Anfield is never easy.

“They’ve got themselves in a great position. Arne Slot is a big winner this weekend. He’d have looked at that and thought, 'As long as Arsenal don’t win I’ll be delighted.' Manchester City losing, it’s been perfect for them. Right now, the ascendency is with Liverpool.”

On City’s title defence, Redknapp added: “To Manchester City this feels like a bit of a crisis. This is the first time in a few years where people are saying Manchester City are not favourites to win the title because of the injuries they have got.”

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