Analysis: How Slot can capitalise on Guardiola's problems

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points ahead of this weekend's huge Premier League match at Anfield.

Team analysis: Liverpool 

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are in magnificent shape ahead of what could be a season-defining match at home to Manchester City.

The Reds have won their last six matches in all competitions, including statement victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid in Europe, and will be relishing the chance to prey on a Man City side who are low on confidence and go 11 points clear of the champions.  

How will Slot and his players look to punish a Pep Guardiola team who are winless in their last six matches? 

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Targeting City’s full-backs 

Liverpool’s wide forwards are all in sparkling form, which could spell further trouble for Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol, who have both been below their best form this season.  

You can expect Virgil van Dijk to drive a series of long diagonal passes in the direction of Mohamed Salah.    

It is a ploy Liverpool use often, so whenever Van Dijk has an opportunity to ping that pass out wide to the right, he will take it.

Salah is the Premier League’s standout player this season, with 10 goals and six assists. Bursting with confidence, he will run at Gvardiol as often as possible.  

Gvardiol was at fault for two goals in City’s 3-3 draw with Feyenoord in midweek and was given a torrid time by Dejan Kulusevski last weekend. From one long diagonal, Kulusevski outmuscled the City left-back to set up James Maddison to score. The first 20 minutes will be a crucial period for Gvardiol's confidence.

On the other flank, Walker might be targeted by Slot too.  

Milos Kerkez ran past Walker to set up Evanilson for AFC Bournemouth's winning goal against City in Matchweek 10, and Joao Pedro’s goal at Brighton & Hove Albion stemmed from a long pass played over Walker’s head for Kaoru Mitoma in Matchweek 11.  

Last weekend, Timo Werner also exploded past a weary-looking Walker to cross for Brennan Johnson to score Spurs’ fourth goal.  

Spurs' fourth goal at Man City

If Cody Gakpo or Luis Diaz face up in a one-v-one with Walker at Anfield, they will look to test his resolve again. Recent form is likely to encourage them to be even more positive than usual.  

Breaking fast 

For all of the added control and patience that Slot has brought to Liverpool’s side this season, they remain exceptionally dangerous on the counter.  

Salah's nine shots from fast breaks are three more than any other player in the league, and as a team Liverpool top the rankings too.  

Under Guardiola, Man City are always going to be susceptible to fast breaks, given how much possession they dominate, and in recent weeks that fragility has grown.  

Rodri’s absence is definitely a factor. Without him they are reliant on Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic to stem the flow, but none of them possess the athleticism or defensive nous of the Ballon d’Or winner - and Kovacic is also now injured.

Shots conceded by City from fast breaks 

Across the whole of last season Man City conceded 3.6 Expected Goals (xG) from fast-break shots. After only 12 matches this season the figure is already 4.1 xG. You can be sure the leaders will break hard and fast on City at Anfield. 

Testing City with runners  

Maddison strode away from Gundogan to open the scoring in Spurs' win at the Etihad Stadium last time out, and that ploy of making bursts into the box from midfield will appeal to Slot.  

Maddison's opening goal v Man City

The likes of Curtis Jones (whose top speed is 34.8km/h), Ryan Gravenberch (33.7km/h), and Dominik Szoboszlai (34.4km/h) are all quick when making forward runs.  

They are likely to test the pace of City midfielders such as Gundogan (top speed 31.0km/h) and Kovacic (31.5km/h).  

Flooding the box is something Liverpool like to do anyway. So far this season they rank second for the most runs made into the penalty box. 

Most runs into opponents' box

The champions' defence will have to be more compact than they have been of late when dealing with those runners.  

Matt O’Riley’s winner for Brighton is another recent example of how one penetrative run can pierce Guardiola’s side.  

Playing at a ferocious tempo 

City have looked a little weary at times this season, which is perhaps no surprise given that seven of their players who have made starts are in their thirties. In contrast, Slot’s Liverpool appear fresher, with just four over-30s appearing in a starting XI so far.  

When you look at some of the athletic data and pressing stats, Liverpool are better equipped to win the physical battle.  

They feature inside the top three for sprints and final-third pressures resulting in a turnover.

Liverpool are not as "heavy metal" in style as they were under Jurgen Klopp, but this could be an afternoon where they bring a bit more of that famed hostility to the table.  

Guardiola’s side did not handle the physicality of Brighton, AFC Bournemouth or Spurs especially well, conceding several chances from situations where they were knocked off the ball.  

Home comforts 

The form book suggests Liverpool are worthy favourites for this pivotal encounter, and over recent seasons they also boast an exceptionally strong record in this fixture.  

Man City have won just one of their last 21 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D7 L13), last beating them in February 2021. They have not won at Anfield with fans in attendance since May 2003.

Whichever way you look at this contest, it feels as if Slot has a great opportunity to win his first meeting with Guardiola.  

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