Analysis: The stats that show Cunha is an elite forward

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 13.

Player analysis: Matheus Cunha (Wolves)

It’s been a good month, and indeed a good year, for Wolverhampton Wanderers' talisman Cunha as he sets his sights on AFC Bournemouth this weekend.

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The gifted Brazilian has scored four times in as many matches since late October, while also delivering a trio of assists, playing a significant role in earning Gary O’Neil’s side eight valuable points in those games.

That run of form is no flash in the pan. Over the last 12 months, Cunha has scored 17 goals and provided nine assists in 29 Premier League starts.

Most PL goal involvements since 11 Nov 2023

In the aftermath of Cunha's stunning display at Fulham last weekend, where he contributed two brilliant goals and an assist, a glowing O’Neil said, “There is no limit to where he can go" in the game.

So just how good is Cunha?

He is not a striker, and he does not play for a "top six" side, but as the table above shows his attacking output still compares favourably with all of the division’s elite frontmen.

Cunha's numbers are extraordinary in a Wolves side that have won only twice in the league this season.

Indeed, across the last eight matches, Liverpool’s in-form star Mohamed Salah is the only Premier League player to have registered more goals and assists.

Most PL goal and assists last eight matches

Which is Cunha's best position?

The former Atletico Madrid star is not a natural winger or centre-forward.

Instead, he is at his best operating as an attacking midfielder, with his favoured domain being the area to the left of centre.

With this in mind, Cunha’s recent glut of goals could in part be down to O’Neil’s decision to change his formation after the October international break.

While his call to switch to a 3-4-2-1 was mainly aimed at solidifying Wolves' defence, that shape alteration is also perfectly suited to their main man.

As you can see below, in the last five matches Cunha has occupied the left central attacking-midfield spot, operating in his favoured area.

Prior to that, he had been accommodated in several different roles.

Carrying the team forward

Cunha is a powerful runner with the ball at his feet.

Among the 15 Premier League stars who have delivered at least seven direct goal contributions this season, Cunha has completed the most successful dribbles, with 22.

His beautifully made assists against Crystal Palace and Southampton both came from driving runs from the left, before executing perfect through balls for Pablo Sarabia and Jorgen Strand Larsen respectively.

Bournemouth must work hard this weekend to deny him space in these areas, or else they could suffer a similar fate.

Cunha has carried the ball just under 2km this season, the most by any Wolves player.

Many of these have been lengthy surges, taking his side up the pitch at key moments.

This Opta Analyst graphic shows his 55 long progressive carries of 10 metres or more upfield. It indicates just how direct he can be when travelling with the ball.

Quality long-range strikes

Six players have scored twice from outside the penalty box this season, but Cunha is the only player to do so three times.

His long-range hits against Aston Villa, Southampton and Fulham mark him out as a serious goal threat from anywhere inside the final third.

Cunha's second MW12 goal v Fulham

For a non-striker, his average of 3.23 shots per 90 minutes is impressive, and higher than players such as Ollie Watkins, Nicolas Jackson and Dominic Solanke.

The pattern of these shots show that many of these are speculative, with a low Expected Goals (xG) value.

The xG per shot for Cunha is just 0.08 - less than half the 0.19xG average per shot among the 11 other players who have scored at least five Premier League goals.

Cunha dispatches difficult opportunities and is among the league's leading lights when it comes to outperforming their xG figure.

The data suggests he has found the back of the net with 2.64 extra goals so far.

Biggest overperformers compared to xG 24/25

Two other eye-catching stats also outline Cunha's influence.

Firstly, when it comes to non-penalty goals, only Erling Haaland has scored more than Cunha’s seven across the opening 12 matches.

In addition to that, many of his direct goal contributions have come at important junctures.

The 25-year-old has scored or assisted more equalising goals than anyone else in the Premier League this season.

Most goals and assists for equalisers 24/25

Which areas can Cunha improve?

Cunha’s pressing game is not yet at the level of some of English football’s very best attacking midfielders, but his work off the ball is improving under O’Neil.

Indeed, he has made more interceptions and ball recoveries per 90 minutes than both Martin Odegaard and Bernardo Silva, two individuals O'Neil has referenced when challenging Cunha to improve that aspect of his game.

Moving forward, Cunha will also want to make more contributions in home matches.

Fifteen of his 21 Premier League goals, or 71 per cent, have come in away matches, which is highly unusual.

Despite playing fewer matches on the road, he shoots, creates and scores more often in those fixtures.

Cunha's home v away stats compared 24/25

At Molineux, where opponents perhaps place more emphasis on trying to limit the influence of Wolves’ star man, Cunha has not found it as easy to be their match-winner.

He benefits from the extra space which is often afforded to him when home sides try to take the attacking initiative against Wolves.

Cunha will be hoping to redress the balance with a dominant performance against Bournemouth at Molineux on Saturday.

Once his home form clicks, his end product will go to the next level.

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