Is this the best EVER race for Europe?

Football writer Alex Keble explains why this is the most competitive race we have ever seen for UEFA Champions League places, and assesses the chances of all the challengers. 

There has never been a UEFA Champions League race quite like this one.

Over the last couple of weeks, the gap between seventh and eighth has widened to create a mini-league between Nottingham Forest in third and Aston Villa in seventh – and a straight shootout between five clubs for three places.

It is an unprecedented situation. Prior to 2024/25, the smallest-ever gap between third and seventh after Matchweek 33 was seven points.

This year, that gap stands at just four points.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
3	Man City MCI	34	+23	61
4	Nott'm Forest NFO	33	+14	60
5	Newcastle NEW	33	+18	59
6	Chelsea CHE	33	+18	57
7	Aston Villa AVL	34	+5	57

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It’s a record-breaking season – and brilliantly timed, because for the first time ever, the Premier League’s top five will all qualify for the Champions League.

Liverpool are of course already guaranteed a spot and Arsenal, nine points clear of Chelsea in sixth, are practically there too, leaving three places open.

Five clubs for three spaces and just four points between them; the final five rounds are going to be a lot of fun.

Here, we take a look at other close races to find clues for how the race might go, before analysing the form guide and fixture list to see who stands the best chance of making it.

How clubs have changed positions in 2024/25

Tightest league table since 1990s

The five Premier League seasons with the smallest gaps between third and seventh at the current stage of the season are 1993/94 (eight), 1995/96 (eight), 1997/98 (seven), 2000/01 (seven), and – with a big jump in time, and table compression – 2024/25 (four).

Before this season, they were all in the first decade of the Premier League’s existence, reflecting the fact there was considerably less money swirling around English football in the 1990s, meaning the distance between teams was smaller.

That hasn’t been true for more than two decades now, although it appears we are swinging back towards an open field, after a long period in which the same four or five clubs would compete every season.

So, the top half of the table is more interesting than it has been since the 1990s – and more meaningful, too.

Only the champions qualified for the Champions League until 1996/97, when the runners-up also entered. It wasn’t until 1998/99 that three teams qualified and only in 2001/02 did the number rise to four.

In other words, we might have had some good-looking tables in the 1990s but there weren't as many teams vying for a place in the Champions League.

History suggests ‘Big Six’ will hold on - or rise clear

This is without doubt the best-ever race for UCL football, then, although there have been a few good ones in recent years.

Sifting through the last 20 years of Champions League races, there are five seasons which stand out, when four or more teams were grappling for two or more places.

After 33 matches in 2016/17 and 2018/19, there were six points and four points respectively between third place and sixth. On both occasions, the teams in third and fourth at that stage of the season remained there.

The other three seasons we have picked out are more interesting – and reveal a pattern.

In 2003/04, just eight points separated fourth from 12th at the 33-match stage, and although Bolton Wanderers had too many teams to bypass, everyone down to Middlesbrough in ninth had a chance to catch Liverpool in fourth.

But Liverpool didn’t just hang on, they ended four points clear, while Newcastle and Villa both retained their spots, too.

Then there’s 2019/20 and 2020/21, consecutive seasons that evoke painful memories for Leicester City supporters. Their side finished fifth in both campaigns, after being in third place with five games to go.

In the pandemic-hit season, 2019/20, Leicester were three points clear of fifth place after 33 games but they fell behind Manchester United - who beat them 2-0 at their King Power Stadium on the final day - and Chelsea.

At the same stage in the following season, Leicester were a huge seven points clear. This time, Liverpool joined Chelsea in jumping above them.

The lesson here, linked to 2003/04, is that the more established Champions League clubs, with more experience and deeper pockets, tend to rise into the top four by season end.

2024/25 could be very different – with outsiders in better form.

On that evidence, we should back Manchester City and Chelsea to complete the top four, leaving one space for one of Newcastle, Forest or Villa.

Looking back over the season as a whole, Forest look best-placed to join those two.

Starting from Matchweek 10, as the table began to settle, Forest have sat within the top five for the longest, followed by Chelsea and Man City.

No. of Matchweeks spent in top five after MW10

Villa fans might be alarmed by that table. And yet here is evidence why we ought to simply ignore the history.

Unai Emery’s side have surged up the table in recent weeks, winning 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, and with such a deep squad – masterfully rotated of late by the head coach – Villa are many pundits’ favourites to make the top five even though they fell to an unlucky defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday.

Newcastle, too, are in form despite their hiccup at Villa Park. An absence of European football this season has kept them fresh, and with just one game per week for the remainder of the season, they can anticipate a strong showing over the final five matches.

Indeed, it’s those who have been in the top five the longest who seem the most vulnerable.

Forest were fortunate to beat Tottenham Hotspur on Monday night, having recorded an Expected Goals (xG) of 0.48 and conceded 2.14 xG. Before that game, Forest had won just three of their previous eight Premier League matches as fatigue began to creep in.

Their top-five place is not secure, and neither is Chelsea’s. Enzo Maresca’s side have slowed down as the campaign has gone on, collecting 23 points from their last 17 league matches. They will need a major turnaround to maintain their grip.

Man City seem the most obviously steady of the lot, rising to impressive levels recently with a seven-match unbeaten run that culminated in the confidence-building late win against Villa.

In fact, they have won more points in their last five matches than any of their rivals, while only Villa have accrued more over the previous 10.

Form guide over last five and 10 matches

Fixture list leaves Forest and City in pole position

After Man City’s 2-1 victory over Villa on Tuesday, a huge moment that swung momentum in Pep Guardiola’s favour, we have two more head-to-heads between the five clubs: Newcastle v Chelsea in May and Forest v Chelsea on the final day.

Chelsea clearly have the toughest run-in, with their three remaining home games against Liverpool, Man Utd and Everton completing a difficult set.

Considering how heavy Maresca’s team have looked recently, and with the additional distraction of the UEFA Conference League, Chelsea are not many people’s favourites.

Newcastle, too, have it tough. Everton (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), and Arsenal (A) are far from easy, although they can build some momentum with Ipswich Town at home this weekend.

At the other end of the spectrum, the fixtures look good for Villa, Forest and Man City.

Villa are done with their tough outings, and should be able to get back on the horse against Fulham (A) and AFC Bournemouth (A), before ending against Spurs (H) and Man Utd (A), who could both be prioritising Europa League action.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest side don’t play anyone in the top 10 until the final-day visit of Chelsea, although this could be a poisoned chalice; Forest’s desire to play on the counter means the more reactive, low-block football of bottom-half sides could blunt them.

By contrast, Guardiola will feel confident about playing Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), and Fulham (A), with the trip to Craven Cottage being the only one that should trouble them.

There is almost nothing between the five clubs in terms of quality or form.

But the difficulty level of their respective fixtures paints a different picture, and it’s Newcastle and Chelsea – going head-to-head next month – who face an uphill battle.