Football writer Alex Keble analyses Manchester City's 2-1 win over Aston Villa.
When the Premier League season is done and dusted, fans of Manchester City and Aston Villa might look back on Matheus Nunes’s 94th-minute winner on Tuesday evening as the moment that defined their campaign.
TV Info - Broadcasters
A burst of light for City, a gut punch for Villa. Late winners are always that way, but rarely in 2024/25 has one felt this monumental.
Man City are up to third, the highest they’ve been since mid-November, full of confidence on a six-match unbeaten run and increasingly expectant.
Villa are now bottom of the mini-league of UEFA Champions League hopefuls, seventh and chasing a pack of clubs who all have a match in hand.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
34 | +23 | 61 |
| 4 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
33 | +14 | 60 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
33 | +18 | 59 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
33 | +18 | 57 |
| 7 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
34 | +5 | 57 |
Unai Emery looked crestfallen when the goal went in, and understandably so.
His team were good value for a draw in a cautious tactical battle at the Etihad, but in the end the simplest of substitutes and the most glaring of mis-matches – Axel Disasi, meet Jeremy Doku – has changed the course of both teams’ seasons.
Guardiola’s ultra-narrow system blocks Villa’s build-up
It was Emery who made the surprise tactical move three days ago when he instructed both of his wingers to play as No 10s, creating an ultra-narrow formation that blew away the Newcastle United midfield.
On Tuesday, Pep Guardiola – presumably reacting to Villa’s 4-1 win over Newcastle – decided to significantly bolster central midfield to prepare for the challenge.
Man City deployed an unusual 4-2-2-2 formation in which Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan sat in front of Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo Silva, while Nico O’Reilly and Omar Marmoush split into the channels.
Man City's average positions v Villa
Call it split strikers or a no-striker formation, for the most part it pinned Villa back and allowed Man City to press them centrally, nullifying Emery’s passing networks through the centre.
Villa rarely got out as they would have liked, an effect that increased as the match wore on, right up until the final blow.
Villa’s solid counter-attacking setup almost earns a point
And yet they came so close, Emery’s decision to play a deep defensive line and soak up pressure almost giving Villa a precious point.
At times in a flat back-six, this was Villa at their most defensive. The aim was to crowd the middle and let Man City pass around them (as shown below), a task made easier by Man City’s narrow 4-2-2-2 shape.
The second half especially was a slog, mostly because both City and Villa, cautious of each other, blocked the middle.
When Villa did threaten it was on the break. Marcus Rashford’s penalty goal was created by a rapid counter-attack down the left flank launched through Rashford and Jacob Ramsey, although Villa did not create enough of these after they equalised.
That made for a stalemate both managers tried to change with substitutions.
Simplicity of Doku substitute cuts through the tactical chess
Among all the substitutes, a fair few threatened to change the narrative.
Emery’s decision to bring on Marco Asensio for Amadou Onana – an ostensibly attacking substitution - helped Villa regain a foothold as City pushed them back. Youri Tielemans, now in a deeper role, could weave the visitors out of trouble.
Donyell Malen, another attacking change, had a couple of runs down the right that looked fruitful, and yet for all Emery’s changes it was the only one that Guardiola made that had the telling effect.
Doku came on for Marmoush and began to run directly at Disasi, who looked vulnerable as soon as he came onto the pitch for Matty Cash.
It was a potential mis-match Guardiola spotted quickly and moved in for the kill.
Doku dribbled clean past Disasi to set up Nunes’s winner and that was that: for all the tactical chess, for all of Emery’s tweaks, it was Guardiola’s one simple move that did it.
Doku's touch map v Villa
Man City take a huge stride forward as Villa’s hopes are dashed
City are now in pole position.
The nature of this win – digging deep, showing resolve, and enjoying the elation of a late winner – will only add to the growing confidence in the camp that the Man City of old are back.
A fixture list of Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Southampton (A), AFC Bournemouth (H), and Fulham (A) looks relatively straightforward, too, and certainly Guardiola’s side will expect to consolidate their position in the next couple of fixtures.
Man City remaining PL fixtures
With an FA Cup semi-final to come, there is an increasing possibility City’s supposed off-season will end with a major trophy and qualification for the Champions League, a double of sorts that Villa fans dream of.
But those dreams have faded slightly today. If only Rashford’s shot after 18 seconds had gone in off the post, and not out. If only Emiliano Martinez had saved Bernardo Silva’s opener, rather than parry it into his own net.
These are the margins at the top. It’s an agonising near miss for Villa, but with a favourable-looking set of matches ahead – Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), and Manchester United (A) – they need to pick themselves up quickly.
Aston Villa's remaining PL fixtures
There is no time to wallow. Crystal Palace await at Wembley in four days’ time. Like City, they can still make this a season to remember.