Analysis: Five areas Spurs v Chelsea could be won and lost

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can make the difference in Matchweek 15.

Match analysis - Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea 

Chelsea’s action-packed 4-1 win at Spurs last season will go down as a Premier League classic, and the Blues return to north London this Sunday in wonderful form. 

By contrast, Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs side, who were reduced to nine men that night, come into this derby reeling from a 1-0 loss at AFC Bournemouth.  

So, what sort of contest can we expect?  

Here are five tactical areas to keep your eye on when this fierce rivalry resumes…

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1) Spurs being caught square 

Spurs have been without their first-choice centre-backs, which is far from ideal as they prepare to face an in-form Chelsea team who have scored 2.6 goals per match in all competitions. If they can maintain that ratio throughout the season, it would be the best in the club’s history.  

Postecoglou’s tactical approach is always bold and proactive, so we can expect his back four to squeeze up towards the halfway line when pressing Chelsea.  

That line will be targeted by Enzo Maresca’s players, who have the quality to capitalise from through-balls.  

Nicolas Jackson, with six goals in his last nine matches, has the speed to trouble the Spurs back line when passes are slipped beyond the last defender.  

Spurs know all about that, thanks to the Chelsea forward’s hat-trick in this fixture last season.  

Jackson is always eager to make runs in between central defenders. Only Erling Haaland has received more through-balls in open play than Jackson this season.  

Through-balls received in open play 2024/25

With fantastic passers such as Cole Palmer (10 through-balls), Enzo Fernandez (eight), Moises Caicedo and Jadon Sancho (both five) in the side, Jackson knows his movement will be rewarded.  

Along with Aston Villa, whose striker Ollie Watkins plays similarly to Jackson, Chelsea have produced the joint highest number of through-balls.  

Most through-balls 2024/25

To prevent this tactic threatening them, Spurs must press outstandingly well to ensure Chelsea’s players do not have time to look up and make the perfect pass.  

They will also need to look after possession with great care inside the middle third.  

If the back four is caught high and square from a turnover, they may find themselves vulnerable.  

2) Who will win the battle of the press? 

When two aggressive pressing teams collide, it always creates excitement. Both sets of players have the industry and intelligence to pounce on any loose decision-making from their opponents.  

Spurs striker Dominic Solanke will certainly do his best to force mistakes from the likes of Chelsea defenders Levi Colwill, Axel Disasi and Wesley Fofana. He is tireless in his running, applying more pressures than any other top-flight player.  

Inside the final third, he is way above the rest of the field, but two Chelsea forwards - Jackson and Palmer - also feature prominently on the list. 

Most pressures inside final third

In terms of winning possession inside the final third, it is Postecoglou’s men who lead the way with 91 times, closely followed by Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth on 88.

Maresca does encourage his goalkeeper and defenders to pass out from the back, so they must not dwell on the ball for too long, or take unnecessary risks.  

In the midweek action, it was Chelsea who looked very strong with their pressing game, while Spurs appeared fragile when playing out from the back at Bournemouth.  

Spurs were fortunate not to concede when Fraser Forster’s straight pass to Dejan Kulusevski was intercepted by Tyler Adams, leading to a disallowed goal just moments later.  

That is the exact scenario Chelsea scored from at Southampton the night before, when Noni Madueke robbed inverted full-back Kyle Walker-Peters from a Joe Lumley pass. If Spurs fail to learn lessons, Maresca’s side will pounce on the weakness.  

Straight passes into midfield are a gamble against this hostile Chelsea team.

3) Can Fernandez dominate the midfield? 

Record-signing Fernandez is starting to look at home in the heart of Chelsea’s midfield. 

He performed a disciplined role in their 5-1 win at Southampton to the right of Moises Caicedo. This came after playing to the left of Romeo Lavia in their previous game, at home to Aston Villa.  

Scoring two goals and assisting three others in his last four appearances, the Argentinian is having a direct impact on matches.  

Why? He is venturing forward with a little more confidence than before. Below, is a good example of how Maresca’s shape helps Fernandez join in with attacks.  

Caicedo has inverted from right-back into midfield, and with both wingers very wide, there is plenty of space for Fernandez to wander freely into, in a more advanced position alongside Jackson and Palmer.  

From here he made a one-two with Palmer, before bursting into the box to score.  

In all his last three starts, Fernandez has been defensively strong and has passed the ball well.  

His defensive chalkboard from the win at Leicester City outlines how he can be proactive inside the opposition half.

Fernandez defensive actions v Leicester

The Argentinian's pass map at Southampton highlights how often he gets involved in the build-up, making a game-high 81 passes, which included 29 inside the final third.

Fernandez passing map v Southampton

Spurs' midfield unit would be advised to stay compact to avoid him playing through them, and they must also track his forays forward.

4) Can Spurs hit Chelsea down the flanks? 

One of the minor flaws with Maresca’s tactical set-up can be the space left down the side of his central defenders.

With one full-back usually high and infield, from turnovers of possession there are sometimes areas for opponents to hit with longer passes into the channel.  

This example from the Villa game shows how easy it was for Watkins to spin in behind, and they almost scored from the move.  

The speed of Solanke, Brennan Johnson, Timo Werner, Son Heung-min and Kulusevski should come to the fore in these moments.  

We saw how dangerous Spurs were from these scenarios in their 4-0 win at Man City. Postecoglou has no shortage of willing runners. In fact, two of the top three run-makers in the division play for Spurs.

Most runs made 2024/25

Kulusevski is especially dynamic when making that type of long forward run, and opponents find it hard to track the Swede’s powerful bursts.  

The key to success will be synching the timing of the pass and the run. If they can get it right, the home side will have success.  

5) Who will be best on the break?

This fixture has the potential to be a fantastic watch, as both head coaches will bring a positive style of play to this derby.  

Ball carrying is a strength for both teams. Kulusevski has created the second-highest number of chances from ball carries (12), with Chelsea’s Pedro Neto (11) and Palmer (10) just behind him.  

Noni Madueke is also very explosive with the ball at his feet, attempting 17 shots from ball carries. Only Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo has had more.  

Goals and shots from fast breaks 2024/25

Fast breaks are also a speciality for these two teams.  

Spurs' quick forwards have revelled in counter-attacks, scoring nine times from them already, while Chelsea have manufactured the joint-most shots from fast breaks.  

When each of them are on the front foot, they could be at their most vulnerable.  

When you add up all the various tactical ingredients – and there are plenty more we have not mentioned here – we look set up for another intoxicating encounter.