Analysis: Returning Saka will inspire Arsenal

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 31.

Player analysis: Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)

How much closer would Arsenal be to Liverpool in this season’s title race had Saka not missed three-and-a-half months of the season?

We will never know.

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There is no definitive answer of course, but it’s not much of a stretch to presume the gap is likely to have been less than 12 points heading into the home straight.

That’s because Saka is a superstar, the absolute talisman of Mikel Arteta’s side.

Producing 23 direct goal involvements in his 25 appearances in all competitions this season, he is as important to Arsenal as Mohamed Salah is to Liverpool.

Comeback goal

On Tuesday evening, just six minutes and 36 seconds after coming off the bench to one of the most rapturous ovations Emirates Stadium has ever seen or heard, Saka scored his sixth Premier League goal of the campaign.

Popping up at the far post to convert a header, Arsenal's winning goal in a 2-1 success against Fulham, was also his first goal as a substitute for the club.

That fairytale return means Saka has now achieved double figures for goals and assists in all competitions for the third season in a row.

Liverpool star Salah and Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes are the only other two players to match that feat in the same timeframe.

Still just 23, Saka's progress has been constant until this point, and the table below shines a light on his productivity. As it stands, this has been Saka’s best season yet for goal involvements per match.

Saka's increasing goal involvements (G+A) per 90 minutes

Creative force

Prior to tearing his hamstring against Crystal Palace in December, Saka had a real swagger in his game.

Physically stronger and carrying the ball with authority, his 2.29 successful dribbles per 90 this season are a career high.

Saka’s stellar individual goal at home to Nottingham Forest in late November showcased how hard he is to defend against, as he fired off an unstoppable strike on the back of a fabulous ball carry.

The England international’s touches inside the opposition box (8.94 per 90) and shots from inside the area (2.7 per 90) have also never been higher.

Regarded as a senior figure within the dressing room, Saka wants to take on added responsibility, and this has helped him grow as a player.

Part of that development has led to Saka’s set-piece deliveries going up a level in 2024/25.

Consistently accurate with his left-footed inswingers, no one in the Premier League can match his 0.21 assists per 90 from set plays.

From a creative perspective, Saka’s numbers are simply world class.

Standing shoulder to shoulder alongside players such as Kevin De Bruyne, Salah and Alexander Isak, the Arsenal star's output was exceptional before injury struck.

Most creative players* in PL 2024/25 - all stats per 90 minutes

*Minimum 10 starts

With this kind of quality ripped out of Mikel Arteta’s starting XI, it is little wonder Saka's presence has been sorely missed.

Can Saka and Odegaard end this season on a high?

There was a time, not so long ago, when the Saka-Martin Odegaard-Ben White combination down the Gunners’ right-hand side was the heartbeat of the team.

Sharing great chemistry, they ripped a series of opponents to shreds across the 2022/23 and 2023/24 campaigns.

Injury issues for all three mean they have started just four Premier League matches together this season – and just once since August.

This Saturday's fixture at Everton may come too soon for the trio to all be named in Arteta’s starting XI but they will soon be reunited.

Odegaard certainly thrives when Saka is on his outside.

Since the start of 2021/22, nobody else in the Arsenal squad has set up the Norwegian for more chances (46) than Saka, who loves to cut the ball back for his captain to shoot.

Moving forward, Arteta would like more of those key passes to find Odegaard inside the box though.

Considering Odegaard has only netted once from open play in this season’s Premier League, you wonder if Saka's comeback will bring on a late flurry of goals for him.

When you flip it around and check out these numbers below, it also shows the enormous impact Odegaard has on Saka’s shot count.

Arsenal players set up most often by Odegaard since 2021/22

Working in close proximity with him, Odegaard sets up Saka way more than he does anybody else.

Saka's return will therefore whet the appetite of Arsenal supporters the world over.

Odegaard is at his best when he has runners around him, and there are few better in the business at making a dynamic run into the box than Saka.

Look how many forward passes have found him in good areas across the last four seasons.

Who plays where?

Whether Saka starts or comes off the bench at Goodison Park, it will be in his customary wide-right berth.

While Arteta has confessed he is open to using him infield in the future, there is very little prospect of him adopting a different role in 2024/25.

Saka will come in for Ethan Nwaneri, who may have to settle for a place on the bench, especially given how brilliant Gabriel Martinelli was on the left flank against Fulham in midweek.

In certain matches we could see Nwaneri and Odegaard both used as box-to-box midfielders either side of a defensive midfielder.

In the short term however, Nwaneri will provide joint cover for Saka and Odegaard.

Getting Nwaneri into central areas certainly makes sense for the Gunners as he has scored eight goals in all competitions this season.

Registering his 10th direct goal involvement in Matchweek 30, Nwaneri became - at 18 years and 11 days old - the second youngest player to reach that landmark across Europe’s big five leagues in 2024/25, behind Barcelona’s brilliant Lamine Yamal (17 years, 77 days).

Soon, Arteta may have to find a place for Nwaneri in his regular starting XI.

As for Saka, it is tremendously exciting to see one of the most impactful right-sided forwards in world football fit and available once again.

Arsenal are sure to be a better side with him back in the fold.