Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 31.
Player analysis: Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo (Nottingham Forest)
It is no coincidence the Premier League’s top three all have exceptional centre-back partnerships.
Consistently laying the platform for wins, Liverpool’s axis of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate are excellent, as were Arsenal’s William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes, prior to the Brazilian’s season-ending hamstring injury earlier this week.
At the City Ground, you will find a pairing which has been just as strong.
Standing firm for Nottingham Forest, week in week out, Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic absolutely deserve to be in the conversation for this season’s best centre-back duo.
Facing an in-form Aston Villa side who haven’t lost at home since August will not be easy for third-placed Forest this Saturday.
Yet with those two defensive rocks working in tandem, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men know they can make the short trip across the Midlands with confidence.
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Milenkovic: a signing of the season contender
Joining Nottingham Forest from Fiorentina last summer to little fanfare and for a fee in the region of £12million, Milenkovic has provided astonishing value for money.
Tall and imposing, he is the physical enforcer in Nottingham Forest’s defence, using his muscle to dominate opposition strikers.
If he starts, Ollie Watkins – who is averaging 4.1 shots per home game this season – will be hard pushed to improve on that average this weekend.
Milenkovic is the Premier League’s best defensive duel winner.
No defender in the top flight (with a minimum of 10 starts) can match his 70.22 per cent success rate.
Supremely dominant in the air, the Serb also ranks third for aerial-duel success on 72.17 per cent.
Milenkovic duel stats, 24/25
| Total | PL defender rank* | |
| Duel success | 70.22% | 1st |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial-duel success | 72.17% | 3rd |
*Min. 10 starts
Milenkovic, 27, is not just solid inside his own box; he is also a menace inside the opposition penalty area.
Registering 17 headed shots, the most of any Premier League defender, the Forest centre-back has scored four times this season.
One of those was against Aston Villa in the reverse fixture, heading home Morgan Gibbs-White’s cross, at a recycled corner.
All four of his goals have stemmed from right-wing corners, with three of those coming from the second phase of play.
So, even if Villa make the first contact from set-pieces, they must stay alive to the threat Milenkovic carries from follow-up crosses.
Most headed shots, 24/25
| Player | Headed shots |
| Nikola Milenkovic | 17 |
|---|---|
| Josko Gvardiol | 14 |
| Maxence Lacroix | 14 |
| Virgil van Dijk | 13 |
| Gabriel | 10 |
Murillo: a young defender who plays with personality
At just 22 years of age, centre-back Murillo has an incredibly bright future ahead of him.
His astute positioning, bravery, pace and quality on the ball perfectly complement his partner.
Murillo’s speed across the turf makes him ideal to cover for the Serb, who loves to step up and engage in physical duels.
The Brazilian is also comfortable on the ball, able to bring it out of defence with confidence before launching accurate long passes.
Only seven Premier League centre backs have made more successful long passes than Murillo (96), who is terrific at launching Forest’s trademark fast breaks.
As the numbers in the table below indicate, he also defends his own box with wonderful positioning and determination.
He is a character who is adored at the City Ground.
Murillo defensive stats, 24/25
| Total | PL defender rank | |
| Clearances | 186 | 2nd |
|---|---|---|
| Headed clearances | 84 | 5th |
| Blocks | 40 | 3rd |
Defending deeper than most
Nuno plays to the strengths of his key players by coaching a brand of counter-attacking football.
Drawing opponents on to them – Forest average a league low 39.2 per cent possession – the Portuguese backs his rearguard to defend stoutly, before using the pace of his forward line to strike hard and fast on the break.
These defensive action areas graphics (below) compare Murillo and Milenkovic with Saliba and Gabriel, displaying how different their roles are.
The Forest duo have more defending to do, but most of it is central and in their own defensive third. They are compact as a pairing.
Mikel Arteta’s duo, in a front-footed side, have less to do but are asked to cover a lot more ground with their defensive work.
Arsenal’s tactics demand that they squeeze high and wide to shut off attacks at source.
The clean-sheet kings
Forest and Liverpool lead the way with 13 clean sheets apiece this season, and Milenkovic has featured in all those matches.
Team-mates Murillo and Ola Aina (both 11) are also inside the division’s top five for the most shutouts among defenders.
Most clean sheets among defenders, 24/25
| Player | Clean sheets |
| Nikola Milenkovic | 13 |
|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk | 13 |
| Ola Aina | 11 |
| Murillo | 11 |
| William Saliba | 11 |
Only five of those clean sheets have come away from the City Ground though, and in recent weeks Forest have not been as secure on the road.
Conceding five goals at AFC Bournemouth, four at Newcastle United and twice against Ipswich Town and Fulham since late January, Forest are sure to have a sharp focus on rediscovering their away-day solidity at Villa Park.
Aina absence a blow
Losing right-back Aina to a calf injury could be problematic for Forest.
The Nigeria international has been arguably the best player in his position in the Premier League this season.
Aina has won possession 160 times, more than any defender in 2024/25, providing reliability at the back and quality going forward.
With on loan left-back Alex Moreno unable to feature against his parent club, Nuno has a difficult choice to make over who he starts in the full-back areas this weekend.
He could switch to a back three, adding Morato to the line-up, but having kept a terrific clean sheet at home to Manchester United in midweek, this may not be his preference.
Whatever he decides, with Milenkovic and Murillo so resolute in central defence, Forest will back themselves to stand their ground.
On paper this is their toughest remaining away fixture, so a positive result could be so valuable in their quest for a top-four finish.
