Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Could playing Man City be just what goal-shy Man Utd need?
- Will Forest's press hand Villa the advantage?
- Can another Ipswich win over Wolves change the relegation picture?
- Are Everton about to exploit injury-hit Arsenal?
- Is Fullkrug finally about to come good for West Ham?
- Can Palace claim first double over rivals Brighton in 92 years?
- Will king of the road Salah rediscover his scoring touch?
- Could neighbours Chelsea add to Brentford's home decline?
- How Isak and Newcastle could added to Leicester's torment
- Saints' speed could give Spurs something to think about
Will counter-attacking approach relieve Man Utd’s goalscoring issues?
Manchester United’s blank at Nottingham Forest came as no surprise. Excluding matches against the promoted clubs, United have scored just seven goals in eight Premier League games in 2025.
Their 24 shots at Forest represents an improvement, but it was also their joint-most on record since 2003/04 in an away game in the competition.
And to be frank, they never really looked like scoring; Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Hojlund struggled, so much so that Harry Maguire was used up front for the final five minutes.
Man Utd have scored only 37 goals this season and are on track to finish on 47, a new Premier League low for the club.
But hosting Manchester City could be just what they need.
Again leaving out games against promoted clubs, United have scored more than once in just two Premier League games in 2025, against Everton and – more surprisingly – Liverpool.
That’s because Ruben Amorim’s team perform better when allowed to sit back, absorb pressure and hit on the counter-attack, a style that suits Bruno Fernandes’ passing range and Alejandro Garnacho’s pace.
In fact, that’s how they beat Man City 2-1 in the reverse fixture, a game in which Man Utd amassed an Expected Goals (xG) of 2.1, their sixth-highest in the Premier League this season to date.
Goals are a big problem for Man Utd – just not when they’re up against the top clubs.
Will Forest’s pressing allow Tielemans and Rogers to take control?
A clean sheet and a counter-attacking winner made Forest’s 1-0 victory over Man Utd typical of their season, but under the surface there were cracks appearing.
Man Utd were the better team and deserved more, having made their way into the Forest third far too many times and all-too easily.
The main issue was the disorganisation in the Forest press, a result of season-long fatigue mixed with a new desire to push high up the pitch.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
30 | +43 | 73 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
30 | +30 | 61 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
30 | +15 | 57 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
30 | +17 | 52 |
| 5 |
Man City
MCI
|
30 | +17 | 51 |
| 6 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
29 | +10 | 50 |
| 7 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
30 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 |
Brighton
BHA
|
30 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |
Fulham
FUL
|
30 | +4 | 45 |
| 10 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
30 | +11 | 44 |
Over and over again the forwards would press without cohesion, allowing Man Utd to play one straight pass through them and, with the Forest defence backpedalling, find Garnacho in huge amounts of space between the defensive and midfield lines.
With one half pressing poorly and the other half dropping, Forest were decompressed.
A look at their average positions reveals the huge gap.
Forest's average positions this season
A similar showing at Villa Park and they will no doubt be punished.
Unai Emery’s tactics are designed to force the opposition to do exactly what Forest did against Man Utd. Aston Villa will look to draw Forest forward by passing out from the back, before suddenly switching gears with vertical passes that break the press.
Youri Tielemans’ passes to Morgan Rogers could be very effective, carving open a Forest team playing right into Villa’s hands.
Ipswich's final chance to launch audacious great escape?
This truly is it: last-chance saloon. If Ipswich Town are going to pull off a great escape of unprecedented magnitude then they need to capitalise on their 2-1 win at AFC Bournemouth in midweek with victory in the only six-pointer that matters.
Victory for Kieran McKenna’s side would mean so much: first back-to-back Premier League wins of the season, a first win at Portman Road of 2025, and – most importantly – just a six-point gap to Wolverhampton Wanderers in 17th.
And the hosts will back themselves to get back into the fight, having beaten Wolves 2-1 at Molineux back in December.
But anything less and it is surely all over. Arsenal, Chelsea, and Newcastle United round off April for Ipswich, meaning they will have too much to do in May should they be nine -or more - points off Wolves by the end of this weekend.
It’s now or never for Ipswich.
Will Moyes have a plan for a Gabriel-less Arsenal?
Bukayo Saka’s goalscoring return for Arsenal was immediately undermined by injuries to Jurrien Timber and Gabriel, which - with Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White also on the treatment table - leaves Mikel Arteta with a makeshift defence.
You would back David Moyes to come up with a plan to target this new weakness.
Capitalising on the early kick off at Goodison Park, Everton will hope to nullify Saka with a deep defence, before targeting the Gabriel-shaped hole.
High balls up to Beto and set-pieces launched on top of Jakub Kiwior are to be expected, and so too is Moyes emulating how Sean Dyche approached the reverse fixture, a 0-0 draw at Emirates Stadium in which Everton held just 23 per cent possession.
Moyes will want more shots than the measly two Everton had that day, and he can expect to get them after Beto twice went through on goal against Liverpool.
Better finishing from his centre-forward on Saturday and Arsenal will be in trouble.
Can Fullkrug build on his cameo at Wolves?
West Ham United’s goalscoring concerns continued in midweek with a 1-0 defeat at Wolves, although there was a glimmer of hope in the performance of Niklas Fullkrug in the second half at Molineux.
Fullkrug has only managed 10 Premier League appearances since his move from Borussia Dortmund last summer, with injuries derailing his debut year in England.
He might not have scored at Wolves, but Fullkrug – a half-time substitute for Evan Ferguson – played well.
His backheeled through-ball put Tomas Soucek clear on goal; he had a good header go just over the bar; and he was denied a penalty despite Matt Doherty appearing to catch him in the box.
“Really good,” was West Ham head coach Graham Potter’s assessment of the performance. “[You] can see what he brings to the team. We can go long into him, he picks up second balls, a threat in the box.”
Fullkrug can expect to build on that showing against AFC Bournemouth, who fell to a 2-1 defeat at home to Ipswich in midweek and who, if we count their penalty shootout win in the FA Cup last weekend as a draw, are six matches without a win in all competitions.
They have also conceded five goals in their last three away Premier League matches. There is an increasing tiredness, and vulnerability, in the Cherries defence.
This could be Fullkrug’s moment.
Will streaky Brighton go back into a slump against Sarr-led Palace?
Brighton & Hove Albion are the streakiest team in the division.
Their 2024/25 Premier League season goes like this: one defeat in nine, then two wins in 11, followed by six wins from eight.
And now two matches without victory, with defeat to Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup sandwiched in between. This could be the beginning of another slump, then.
Crystal Palace, who are looking to complete their first league double over Brighton since 1932/33 after winning 3-1 at the Amex Stadium in December, have won each of their last two home matches and will feel buoyed by a late equaliser at Southampton in midweek.
Better still for Oliver Glasner, Brighton are particularly vulnerable to his style of fast-transitioning football, as Villa showed by scoring three times on the break on Wednesday.
Ismaila Sarr, who has netted three goals in his last two home Premier League appearances, will lead the breaks with Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Palace should get enough counter-attacking opportunities to beat their rivals again.
Highest shots from fast breaks in the PL 24/25
| Club | Shots from fast breaks |
| Liverpool | 56 |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 42 |
| Bournemouth | 37 |
| Nott'm Forest | 37 |
| Newcastle | 32 |
| Crystal Palace | 31 |
| Spurs | 29 |
| Wolves | 29 |
| Aston Villa | 27 |
| Fulham | 27 |
Can away-specialist Salah finally recover form?
Liverpool have put to bed any suggestion they are falling away, or are somehow accidental champions in a low-quality year, and they should now canter to a very impressive points tally.
But for that to happen, they need Mohamed Salah back. He has scored just two goals in his last six matches in all competitions and both of those were penalties against bottom club Southampton.
For a man who, just a few weeks ago looked set to smash all kinds of records on the way to a Ballon d’Or, that is quite the drop-off.
Liverpool need Salah scoring again, particularly away from home: Salah has been involved in all eight of Liverpool’s goals in their last four away Premier League matches, scoring five and assisting three.
And Salah really needs to get back in his groove to ensure he wins individual awards this May. The Ballon d’Or often goes to a UEFA Champions League winner. It will take a special season - with the stats to prove it - for Salah to buck that trend.
Can Brentford rescue their home form against Chelsea?
Thomas Frank’s side need to start winning their home games again, or else all the good work of this season will be forgotten.
Four points from their last four Premier League outings leaves Brentford 11th, and the main reason for that decline is their performances at the Gtech Community Stadium: it’s seven matches and counting now without a win on home soil.
Chelsea’s own problems give Brentford a chance to put that right. Brentford may take pleasure from sitting back and awaiting moments to break quickly through Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, but more importantly they face a team struggling away from Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea haven’t won an away Premier League match since 8 December and have lost each of their last four on the road, as well as two of their last 10 in all competitions (beating only Astana and Copenhagen in the Europa Conference League).
In fact, since 22 December, no side in the Premier League have picked up fewer points away from home than the two of Chelsea.
This, in theory, is a big opportunity for Brentford to put their home form right, although of course Chelsea will equally see this as an opportunity to improve their poor away record.
Can Leicester avoid unwanted record or will Isak run riot?
No team in English top-flight history has ever gone eight matches in a row without a goal. No team in Football League history has ever lost eight in a row without scoring.
Leicester City’s priority is to avoid setting a new record, but it won’t be easy. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 4-0, and indeed Leicester haven’t scored a single goal in their last four meetings with Eddie Howe’s side in all competitions.
It gets worse. Newcastle have won their last six consecutive Premier League matches against newly promoted clubs, while Alexander Isak has scored five goals in his last two matches against teams starting the day in the relegation zone.
It’s hard to see how Leicester find a way to stop the visitors on Monday night.
Can Saints’ speedy front line catch out high-pressing Spurs?
Tottenham Hotspur beat Southampton 5-0 in the reverse fixture in December, with all five goals coming in the first half.
There aren’t too many reasons to expect an upset on Sunday afternoon.
However, Spurs have conceded 26 home goals in the Premier League this season, their average of 1.73 per game is their second-worst in a Premier League season after 1.79 in 2007/08.
That record comes from Spurs’ all-out attacking approach under Ange Postecoglou, who leaves the back door open to counter-attacks, giving vague encouragement to Tyler Dibling and Kamaldeen Sulemana.