Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Villa win tactical battle and make UEFA Champions League a possibility?
- Will headline six-pointer decide which team misses out on top five?
- Will the pressure take its toll on a Forest side forced to control possession?
- Can in-form Brentford strengthen their claim for eighth?
- Will Fulham rise to the occasion in make-or-break match?
- Have Brighton still got time to grab a top-eight finish?
- Is this the weekend Manchester City catch Arsenal?
- Will Gunners be the latest team to benefit from Slot’s rotations?
- Is this Potter's chance to build some positivity at West Ham?
- Can Palace match record points haul and build FA Cup final momentum?
Can Villa win tactical battle and make UEFA Champions League a possibility?
Aston Villa’s 2024/25 season comes down to this one match.
Anything other than victory and their chances of qualifying for next year’s UEFA Champions League are vanishingly small, but win at AFC Bournemouth and they may only have to beat two Europa League-distracted clubs - Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur - to (almost certainly) get into the top five.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Three points for Villa would also ramp up the pressure on both Newcastle United and Chelsea when they meet the following day, while that head-to-head guarantees Villa will be, at most, one point off the top five places by the end of the weekend.
Seven wins from nine leaves Villa confident, but Bournemouth – on a five-match unbeaten run – will be a tough nut to crack.
The Cherries have had a competition-high 65 shot-ending high turnovers this season, a testament to the hard-pressing energy of Andoni Iraola’s football.
That’s a concern for a Villa side who take big risks when passing out from the back and who, when given the chance, attempt line-splitting passes via Youri Tielemans and line-splitting dribbles through Morgan Rogers.
It remains to be seen how the dynamic changes now that Tielemans is set for a spell on the sidelines after sustaining a muscular injury.
If they’re tackled in the process of trying these, Bournemouth will transition at lightning speed into the final third.
But if Unai Emery has devised a tactical plan to evade the high press, his team will revel in the spaces they may gallop into.
When the sides drew 1-1 at Villa Park in October, there were 13 yellow cards, a number of those for desperate challenges made in a match of constant back-and-forth transitions.
It should be the most entertaining contest of the weekend – and the most significant in the race for Champions League qualification.
Will headline six-pointer decide which team misses out on top five?
If Villa win on Saturday, and assuming Nottingham Forest find a way past Leicester City, then we might come to see the head-to-head between Newcastle and Chelsea as the match that defined their respective seasons.
TV Info - Broadcasters
In other words, there probably isn’t room for both clubs to play in next season’s Champions League.
Newcastle are the in-form side, winning 43 points over the last 20 Premier League matches, better than everyone except champions Liverpool, with 46, although with a trip to Arsenal next weekend they cannot afford a slip.
Chelsea, mind, are on a three-match winning streak in the Premier League and the atmosphere at the end of their 3-1 victory against Liverpool last Sunday indicates a surge in form and confidence at just the right moment.
Cole Palmer’s penalty, and all-round performance, could be monumental.
If he’s back in form then Chelsea might just sweep through their remaining Premier League matches.
Palmer will certainly fancy his chances doubling up with Pedro Neto to attack Kieran Trippier on Newcastle’s right, where so many opposition attacks take place, as shown below.
Opposition attacking areas v Newcastle
Then again, Newcastle have already beaten Chelsea 2-0 at home this season in the EFL Cup, and with Anthony Gordon back, they look in full flow.
One thing’s for sure: it will be a fascinating game. A draw is no good for either side. A defeat is unthinkable.
Will the pressure take its toll on a Forest side forced to control possession?
Of the four clubs seemingly battling it out for fourth and fifth, Nottingham Forest have the most straightforward fixture this weekend, although even they cannot bank on victory.
TV Info - Broadcasters
For starters, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have won only one of their last five Premier League matches, picking up a meagre four points in that sequence, while Leicester’s 2-0 win against Southampton last weekend means they have shaken off the dreadful run of defeats that was dragging them down.
But more importantly, the tactical battle is a little complicated.
Forest tend to prefer gifting the opposition the majority of possession, pulling them up the pitch and therefore creating space for Forest counter-attacks.
On Sunday the hosts will be made to control the ball, potentially limiting their creative output as we saw in the 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
36 | +33 | 68 |
| 3 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
36 | +23 | 66 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
36 | +24 | 65 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
36 | +19 | 63 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
36 | +7 | 63 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
36 | +12 | 62 |
That game has followed a recent trend: Forest’s Expected Goals (xG) has been less than 1.0 in each of their last four Premier League matches.
Leicester, however, might be just the accommodating opponents Forest need to get back in their groove. The Foxes have conceded 76 goals, the joint-second highest number this season, while last weekend's clean sheet against Southampton was only their second in the league in 2024/25.
But if the pressure of the Champions League race is getting to Forest, and if stale possession is forced upon them, then the East Midlands derby could go Leicester’s way.
Can in-form Brentford strengthen their claim for eighth?
Moving on to the race for eighth, with Bournemouth facing an uphill task against Villa, it’s Brentford who look best placed to get into pole position this weekend.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Brentford have won their last three in a row, scoring 10 goals in the process, last winning more consecutively in the top division way back in 1939.
Thomas Frank’s side have all the momentum and, this weekend at least, the most winnable fixture of those fighting for eighth.
Ipswich Town have lost 10 of their last 11 home Premier League matches and conceded at least two goals in each of their previous five games. That should give encouragement to Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo, who have both scored 18 Premier League goals this season.
It’s easy to envisage Brentford cutting through the Ipswich defence, potentially putting themselves in eighth before they host Fulham in a defining fixture next weekend.
Can Fulham rise to the occasion in make-or-break game?
Not unlike Villa, Fulham are at a make-or-break moment. Currently 11th, bottom of the four-team mini-league, Fulham simply have to beat Everton on Saturday to stand a chance of finishing eighth.
TV Info - Broadcasters
It isn’t looking good. Marco Silva’s side have won only six points from their last five matches and, after this weekend, travel to Brentford before hosting Manchester City on the final day.
They cannot afford a slip here, then, not against an Everton team that have only won one of their last 10 Premier League matches under David Moyes.
Their season is understandably petering out, perhaps suggesting there won’t be a repeat of the reverse fixture, when Beto scored a 94th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park.
Fulham certainly need to be more vigilant.
Have Brighton run out of time to get a top-eight finish?
Brighton & Hove Albion are also on the back foot in the race for eighth.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side have won only one of their last seven Premier League matches, a 3-2 win against West Ham United in April, and have lost each of their previous two on the road.
But a win at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday could be transformative. After that, they host Liverpool and travel to Tottenham Hotspur.
TV Info - Broadcasters
That Brighton prefer to transition quickly, performing better against teams who dominate possession, tells us they can win their last two matches.
But it also suggests that a trip to Wolves is deceptively difficult.
Vitor Pereira’s reactive tactics led to six straight Premier League wins before the narrow 1-0 defeat to Manchester City last Friday. Wolves' back five will expect to hold firm against a blunt Brighton attack.
Is this the weekend Man City catch Arsenal?
The reason so few people have even been considering the possibility Man City would fall out of the top five in May is this fixture.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Man City have won five of their last six in the league and victory at St Mary’s will take them to 67 points, within one more win required to guarantee a place in next year’s Champions League.
But it could get even better than that.
Arsenal, perhaps wounded by their Champions League exit in midweek, travel to Anfield this weekend, and so if Man City win they could end the weekend level on points with the Gunners in second.
Man City could well end a supposedly-disastrous campaign as Premier League runners-up and FA Cup winners. As disasters go, that’s a pretty good one.
Will Arsenal be the latest team to benefit from Slot’s rotations?
Arsenal have won only one of their last five Premier League matches and are the first team to travel to Anfield since Liverpool won the title. They can feel Man City breathing down their necks.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Sunday’s headline fixture brings an almost wistful feeling of what might have been. For at least half of the season we looked forward to this game as a possible title-decider. Instead, that is not the case.
There is still plenty for Arsenal to play for, however. Should they lose, the Gunners could then host Newcastle next weekend knowing defeat would pile the pressure on for their final day trip to Southampton. Champions League football isn’t secured just yet.
Fortunately for Mikel Arteta he could benefit from Arne Slot’s promise to rotate the team.
“My line-ups will be different from the last 10 months,” Slot said prior to the defeat to Chelsea. “We won’t change everyone, but there will be some rotation in the next four games.”
The consequence, at Stamford Bridge, was a disjointed midfield that Palmer dominated. Arsenal might receive a similar boost at Anfield.
Is this the chance for Potter to build some positivity at West Ham?
On the face of it there is very little riding on this one. Man Utd are expected to rotate after their Europa League semi-final second leg while West Ham supporters are just waiting for this season to end.
But Graham Potter needs something to lift spirits, and a shock win at Old Trafford could be just the result required to bring some positivity back.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Since Potter’s first game in charge in January, only Leicester (seven points), Ipswich (six points) and Southampton (five points) have picked up fewer Premier League points than the 14 of West Ham.
They are also winless in eight league outings, with four draws and four losses, their longest run without a victory in the competition since a run of eight between October and December 2017 under Slaven Bilic and then David Moyes (both four matches).
Things aren’t much better for Man Utd, domestically at least. They are without a win in six in the Premier League and, having lost at the London Stadium 2-1 earlier in the season, could be in line for another defeat if Ruben Amorim again starts academy players.
Potter knows a summer reset will be a lot harder if West Ham don’t win another league match this season. Victory at Old Trafford would bring a huge sigh of relief.
Can Palace match record points haul and build FA Cup final momentum?
The chances of Crystal Palace sneaking into Europe via the league are extremely low, but Oliver Glasner will want to build some confidence and momentum ahead of the FA Cup final next weekend.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Palace are winless in five Premier League matches. That’s hardly ideal preparation for a trip to Wembley.
Another reason to go big at Spurs is an opportunity to draw level with their Premier League record points tally of 49, won in 1992/93 (in a 42-match season when they faced relegation), 2018/19, and 2023/24.
They ought to get the job done.
Whether or not Ange Postecoglou makes sweeping changes to his starting XI after a gruelling trip to Norway, Palace are likely to meet a Spurs side below their best.
Spurs have only won only two of their last 12 Premier League games that have directly followed a midweek Europa League match, losing all five home matches straight after a European fixture in 2024/25.
