Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 16?

Cole Palmer (£11.1m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.6m) have the home form to provide very strong alternatives to Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) for the Gameweek 16 armband in Fantasy Premier League.

The trio are separated by a mere FOUR points in home matches this season – each have played seven such contests, with Liverpool's Salah on 66 points, just ONE ahead of Chelsea’s Palmer, while Arsenal’s Saka has 62 points. 

Crucially, all three have favourable home matches, against Fulham, Brentford and Everton respectively.

Their fellow big-hitter Erling Haaland (£14.9m) also has a home fixture on his agenda, with the Manchester derby taking place at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Manchester City's Norwegian has scored seven goals in home matches this season, more than any of his armband rivals mentioned above.

Who has the worst away defence?

Because so many strong captain options have a home match in Gameweek 16, the underlying defensive statistics will focus exclusively on clubs’ away form.

By refining this further to include only those clubs who have any away match this Gameweek, it’s clear to see that Ipswich Town and Leicester City have both struggled in defence since being promoted.

They rank the worst for allowing their opponents big chances, or situations where a player is expected to score.

Ipswich’s numbers look encouraging for Wolverhampton Wanderers forwards Matheus Cunha (£7.1m) and Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m) at Molineux. 

Meanwhile, Alexander Isak (£8.6m) is the standout option for Newcastle United’s encounter with Leicester at St James’ Park. The Swede has amassed 48 points across the Magpies’ last seven matches, at least TWICE the total of any team-mate.  

Brentford's place among the bottom three in the analysis also promotes the appeal of Palmer's team-mate Nicolas Jackson (£8.2m), while Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood (£6.5m) seems set to extend his fine start to 2024/25, with his visitors Aston Villa yet to keep a single clean sheet in away matches. 

While it's worth noting that Fulham's total of just 13 big chances conceded in away matches is the BEST record of any side, the Egyptian has more than proven his fixture-proof potential, with double-figure returns against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City over his last seven matches.  

Clubs' defensive away stats 24/25

Who is the most likely to score in home matches?

The numbers show that Haaland remains the player most likely to score in a home match, with his total of 12 big chances at least three more than any other player in the analysis.

Saka's outstanding creativity at Emirates Stadium also shows why he can reward managers with the armband. He has had four big chances and created a further 11 such opportunities, giving him a total of 15 big-chance involvements - more than any of his rivals.

While there's not much to separate Palmer and Salah for big-chance involvement, the goal-involvement numbers, on the other hand, show why Palmer can be the best contender to Salah.

Palmer has been involved in (scored or assisted) a massive 75 per cent of Chelsea's home matches this season, compared with the 69 per cent of Salah for Liverpool. 

Both have clearly been hugely talismanic for their teams at home and the numbers indicate they are likely to claim more big scores.

Ultimately, it comes down to how reliable they have proven over the season, and that's where Salah still has an advantage. The Egyptian has blanked just twice in 14 outings - that's an 86 per cent success rate - whereas Palmer's six blanks in 15 matches equates to a 60 per cent success rate. 

Captain candidates' big chance (BC) home stats 24/25

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